Created Mon 27th Apr 4:05am PST by

fingers_of_fury Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,389,170)

RCP Poll Average: President Obama Job Approval - Which first, 63.5% or 61.5%?

Settled as President Obama reaches 61.5% or lower first

RCP Poll Average for 5/14 - 61.0%. All wagers placed after 5/13 have been refunded.

Background:

Background: RCP Poll Average: President Obama Job Approval

Currently 62.8% (Apr 26).

Place your bets on which happens first, 63.5% or 61.5%.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html#chart

Settlement details:As reported by Real Clear Politics:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html#chart

Forecast history %

President Obama reaches 63.5% or higher first

27%

President Obama reaches 61.5% or lower first

43%

Remains 61.6% - 63.4% through May.

30%

Settled as President Obama reaches 61.5% or lower first on Thu 14th May 4:14pm PST

Activity: H$28,359
Predictions: 88
Comments: 9

Suspend date: Sat 30th May 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Thu 14th May 4:14pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 13th May 7:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: President Obama reaches 63.5% or higher first: 30%, President Obama reaches 61.5% or lower first: 30%, Remains 61.6% - 63.4% through May.: 40%

Action history:

Created Mon 27th Apr 4:05am PST by

fingers_of_fury Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,389,170)

Settlement requested Thu 14th May 4:01pm PST by

hfl13

: 14th May RCP Average 05/06 - 05/13 -- 61.0 31.5 +29.5

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html#chart

Settled as 'President Obama reaches 61.5% or lower first' Thu 14th May 4:14pm PST by

destry [Admin]

: RCP Poll Average for 5/14 - 61.0%. All wagers placed after 5/13 have been refunded.

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Predictions (88)

25 weeks ago

excavator Level 7, Pro (H$4,599)

predicted President Obama reaches 61.5% or lower first (H$100 at 43%)

25 weeks ago

excavator Level 7, Pro (H$4,599)

predicted President Obama reaches 61.5% or lower first (H$50 at 43%)

25 weeks ago

gtown

predicted Remains 61.6% - 63.4% through May. (H$100 at 28%)

25 weeks ago

horsefeathers Level 12, Guru (H$38,139)

predicted Remains 61.6% - 63.4% through May. (H$100 at 26%)

26 weeks ago

solo10 Level 6, Player (H$2,322)

predicted President Obama reaches 61.5% or lower first (H$50 at 44%)

Comments (9)

coolkraft Level 14, Prophet (H$128,991)

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,518271,00.html

62

posted 27 weeks ago

hfl13

@fof: Does any RCP value count? I need an answer to this question because today there were two values for 29th April at RCP. First the Quinnipiac poll lowered the average to 61,7 than about two hours later Rasmussen dropped 1 point to 55 and the average to 61,6. IMHO every value is valid for a potential settlement. Please comment. Because the next few days could have up to 4 values per day due to the 100 days poll increase. Only the last value stays at the website. I could provide a screenshot and the averaged polls at settlement time if I request a settlement. This topic won´t be so important after the 100 days are passed..

posted 27 weeks ago

fingers_of_fury Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,389,170)

@hfl13 - The screenshot for settlement proof is fine with me, but the category editor makes the final call regarding this.

I'll address this issue in future questions so that we don't have to rely on screenshots.

posted 27 weeks ago

hfl13

Today its first Rasmussen -1 (61,4) and then Gallup +2 (61,7) but RCP hasn´t posted a value for May 1st yet. I just need a surprise additional poll with 60.

posted 27 weeks ago

dieseldog Level 16, Oracle (H$584,350)

i don't follow it enough to know when they change or how many they change. if they drop the ABC News/Wash Post and CBS News/NY Times polls it will fall like a rock. last week neither of them was included.

posted 27 weeks ago

hfl13

They were lazy for a few dates now its 61,7 for today.

posted 26 weeks ago

hfl13

May is long and there won´t be an Obama TV stunt the next week.

posted 26 weeks ago

theforce427 Level 12, Guru (H$28,145)

5/12/09---62.2%

posted 25 weeks ago

hfl13

61,7 and Rasmussen is still high at 57. In the next days there will be new polls / old polls will drop out of the average.

posted 25 weeks ago

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