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What will happen to Saturn in 2009?

Settled as Survives: sold or becomes independent

Although the deal hasn't closed yet, it's pretty sure to go through, so for the purpose of this question we can settle as option one: Saturn survives or becomes independent

Background:

Background: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090427/ap_on_bi_ge/us_gm_plan

"The company said it would phase out its storied Pontiac brand no later than next year, and the futures of Hummer, Saturn and Saab will be resolved by the end of this year by either selling them or phasing them out."

What will happen to Saturn in 2009? Market suspends on Dec. 12 and settles on Jan. 1 if no answer is known before then.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Survives: sold or becomes independent
79%
Dead: GM discontinues brand
13%
Saturn remains part of GM throughout 2009
7%
other outcome
1%
Settled as Survives: sold or becomes independent on Mon 15th Jun 10:59am PST

Suspend date: Sat 12th Dec 9am PST (3 weeks to go)
Settlement date: Mon 15th Jun 10:59am PST

Initial likelihoods: Survives: sold or becomes independent: 30%, Dead: GM discontinues brand: 53%, Saturn remains part of GM throughout 2009: 15%, other outcome: 2%

Action history:

Created Mon 27th Apr 5:11pm PST by tarpash
Settlement requested Thu 4th Jun 11:22pm PST by rogerkni: "Penske Auto Said to Win Bidding to Buy GM's Saturn Unit for $200 Million":

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a1I98KorF4v4
Suspended Fri 5th Jun 4:25am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: current news report indicate a decision may be announced very soon...will reopen if not
Settlement requested Mon 15th Jun 10:47am PST by tarpash: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gm-reportedly-lines-up-deals-for-saturn-delphi

We should either settle or reopen and wait until deal closes.
Settled as 'Survives: sold or becomes independent' Mon 15th Jun 10:59am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: Although the deal hasn't closed yet, it's pretty sure to go through, so for the purpose of this question we can settle as option one: Saturn survives or becomes independent

Suspend date: Sat 12th Dec 9am PST (3 weeks to go)
Settlement date: Mon 15th Jun 10:59am PST details

 

Predictions (24)

24 weeks ago
zvassil predicted Survives: sold or becomes independent (H$500 at 77%)
24 weeks ago
bayoubear[Admin] predicted Survives: sold or becomes independent (H$1,000 at 74%)
24 weeks ago
rogerkni predicted Survives: sold or becomes independent (H$500 at 70%)
24 weeks ago
tarpash predicted Survives: sold or becomes independent (H$2,000 at 59%)
24 weeks ago
superbadsteve predicted Survives: sold or becomes independent (H$250 at 50%)

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