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Arlen Specter to be re-elected to the Senate in 2010?

Background: Will Arlen Specter, currently serving as the senior senator from Pennsylvania, be re-elected to the senate, representing Pennsylvania, in the 2010 mid-term elections?

If Mr. Specter loses his senate seat before the 2010 elections, this is to be judged No, even if he is later elected to the senate.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
57%
No
43%
Question suspends in 51 weeks

Suspend date: Tue 2nd Nov 2010 11:59pm PST (51 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 35%

Action history:

Created Tue 28th Apr 9:37am PST by risk

Suspend date: Tue 2nd Nov 2010 11:59pm PST (51 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (42)

2 days ago
bob_loblaw predicted No (H$23 at 43%)
2 weeks ago
notablenotices[Power User] predicted No (H$20 at 43%)
3 weeks ago
dellschipper predicted No (H$20 at 43%)
3 weeks ago
corbelle predicted No (H$50 at 43%)
5 weeks ago
mlromas predicted Yes (H$100 at 57%)

Comments (4)

He will now that he's dumped the GOP.
posted 27 weeks ago
  2 sqlman[Admin]
We can only hope. I knew I always liked the guy...

So does this now mean Coleman will be fighting even harder to stop Franken from taking that all important 60th seat?
posted 27 weeks ago
  3 frogchop
Coleman can fight as hard as he likes, but the ballots he keeps fighting for keep digging the hole deeper. I don't know how long it will take, but eventually Franken will take the seat.
posted 27 weeks ago
  4 hfl13
My guess is that the Minnesota Supreme Court will rule in June and shortly afterwards Franken is certified and seated.
posted 27 weeks ago

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