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Which of these Regions will achieve Nation Status first.

Background: Since 1990, 28 new nations have come into being. Most of these emerged from the collapse of the Soviet Union, either directly or indirectly, as nationalist fervor swept Eastern Europe and the Balkans in the early 1990s. Several other new countries gained independence from other nations. On Feb. 17, 2008, Kosovar prime minister Hashim declared independence from Serbia and Kosovar. In general discussion, a nation-state is variously called a "country," a "nation," or a "state." But technically, it is a specific form of sovereign state (a political entity on a territory) that governs a nation (a cultural entity), and which derives its legitimacy from successfully serving all its citizens. The Compact OED defines "nation-state": a sovereign state of which most of the citizens or subjects are united also by factors which define a nation, such as language or common descent. The nation-state implies that a state and a nation coincide.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Basque region of Northern Spain
3%
Cornwall
2%
No New Nation State
4%
Hawaii
1%
Scotland
3%
Kashmir
3%
Other
78%
Tibet
2%
Chechnya
2%
Baluchistan
2%
Question suspends in 5 years

Suspend date: Thu 1st Jan 2015 3:59pm PST (5 years to go)

Initial likelihoods: Basque region of Northern Spain: 6%, Cornwall: 1%, No New Nation State: 5%, Hawaii: 5%, Scotland: 15%, Kashmir: 10%, Other: 10%, Tibet: 15%, Chechnya: 18%, Baluchistan : 15%

Action history:

Created Tue 28th Apr 1:05pm PST by wwwifabz

Suspend date: Thu 1st Jan 2015 3:59pm PST (5 years to go) details

 

Predictions (43)

5 weeks ago
kolia39 predicted Kashmir (H$100 at 2%)
5 weeks ago
kolia39 predicted No New Nation State (H$100 at 3%)
5 weeks ago
kolia39 predicted Cornwall (H$100 at 1%)
5 weeks ago
kolia39 predicted Basque region of Northern Spain (H$100 at 1%)
10 weeks ago
heavy_heart predicted Scotland (H$10 at 9%)

Comments (7)

  1 randburg
Come back in five years...
posted 29 weeks ago
  2 bgrigore
I think it might be a contradiction in terms between "which of these" and "other".
Does "other" mean that any new state (not necessary from this regions - maybe Kurdistan or other potential countries) since the creation of these question will be enough for this question to be settle? Or is for the case more regions will achive Nation Status in the same time (for example a treaty where more countries are recognised). Could you clarify please?
posted 26 weeks ago
  3 wwwifabz
A new Nation State is a one recognised by the United Nations as a seperate entity regardless how it comes about.
ie Scotland has a degree of atomony, with its own parliament and esatblished borders but relies on the UK for foreign policy and as such is not an independent nation. Kurdistan is area encompassing several countries and has no seperate 'officialy recognised Government' both of the above might already be regarded in certain quarters as seperate nations, however neither currently exist as such.
posted 25 weeks ago
  4 bgrigore
So will this be settled on recognition by (membership to) United Nations.
Last UN member is Muntenegro following its separation from Serbia. http://www.un.org/en/members/growth.shtml
For example if Kosovo, Taiwan, Palestine, South Ossetia, etc. will gain membership to UN before settlement it will be settled as "other".
Can you confirm or clarify otherwise, please.
posted 25 weeks ago
  6 wwwifabz
In the case of Switzerland, it only became a member of the United Nations in 2002, yet I don’t think that anyone could seriously challenge Switzerland’s existence as an independent nation before this date therfore a New Nation State will be defined by membership of the United Nations or by recognition by at least two permanent members of the UN security Council (Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States) Therefore Kosovo already is a nation state but South Ossetia is not and would be settled as other if it meets either of these criteria.
posted 25 weeks ago
  7 bgrigore
To me now it\'s crystal clear. Thanks.\\r
\\nMaybe Palestine will be the first to meet one of the criteria.
posted 25 weeks ago

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