Created Tue 28th Apr 2009 9:58pm PST by

conspiracy2riot Level 13, Psychic (H$95,045)

How many of these States will recognize Gay Marriage by the end of 2009?

Suspended

Suspend date reached

Background:

Background: Category Editor ClarificationThis market is asking of the 11 states listed how many will enact legislation. I have edited the last option so there is no confusion. Since no one at the time of edit had wagered on the final option, the edit was done without effecting any current wagers. Feel free to submit another market asking how many of the 50 states will enact legislation to cover states not listed in this market.

Currently there are 4 states recognizing Gay Marriage: Iowa, Vermont, Massachusetts and Connecticut.

States considering Gay Marriage are: California, Maine, Maryland, Washington, New Hampshire, New Jersey & New York.

So how many of the above listed States will have enacted Gay Marriage by the end of 2009?

To fully qualify the State must have passed a law granting the right with no veto OR an amendment allowing Same Sex marriage to the State Constitution is passed.

Settlement date is fixed.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

Count remains at 4

12%

5 States

66%

6 States

16%

7 States

8 States

9 States

10 States

All 11 States

Predictions on this question are temporarily suspended

Activity: H$36,372
Predictions: 113
Comments: 10

Suspend date: Sun 27th Dec 2009 11:59pm PST

Initial likelihoods: Count remains at 4: 30%, 5 States: 25%, 6 States: 20%, 7 States: 10%, 8 States: 5%, 9 States: 4%, 10 States: 3%, All 11 States: 3%

Action history:

Created Tue 28th Apr 2009 9:58pm PST by

conspiracy2riot Level 13, Psychic (H$95,045)

Changed Description Wed 29th Apr 2009 8:42pm PST by

destry [Admin]

: show details

... <center>Category Editor Clarification</center>This market is asking of the 11 states listed how many will enact legislation. I have edited the last option so there is no confusion. Since no one at the time of edit had wagered on the final option, the edit was done without effecting any current wagers. Feel free to submit another market asking how many of the 50 states will enact legislation to cover states not listed in this market. Currently there are 4 states ... : Iowa, Vermont, Massachusetts and Connecticut~~. <~~. States considering Gay ... , Washington, New Hampshire, New Jersey & & New York. So ... the State Constitution is passed~~. <~~. Settlement date is

Changed Description Wed 29th Apr 2009 8:42pm PST by

destry [Admin]

: show details

... >Category Editor Clarification</center>This market is asking of ... not listed in this market.<. Currently there are 4

Suspended Sun 27th Dec 2009 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Fri 15th Jan 2:50pm PST by

blacksoapman Level 10, Genius (H$13,759)

: Same-sex marriages are currently granted by five of the 50 stateshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Same-sex_marriage_in_the_United_States

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Suspend date: Sun 27th Dec 2009 11:59pm PST details

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Predictions (113)

11 weeks ago

dannylobrien Level 6, Player (H$2,707)

predicted 6 States (H$20 at 15%)

11 weeks ago

hoernla Level 13, Psychic (H$77,104)

predicted 5 States (H$43 at 66%)

11 weeks ago

fenricstoast Level 8, Super-Pro (H$5,525)

predicted Count remains at 4 (H$20 at 12%)

11 weeks ago

daveholman Level 6, Player (H$2,822)

predicted Count remains at 4 (H$100 at 11%)

12 weeks ago

freddiefeelgood Level 4, Whiz-kid (H$1,242)

predicted 5 States (H$159 at 67%)

Comments (10)

emmag

C2R, seems like the question should say "How many states IN TOTAL..." because it's confusing whether you are asking "in addition to the four states that have already .... "

posted 45 weeks ago

conspiracy2riot Level 13, Psychic (H$95,045)

Yeah emmag, I wrote this highly fatigued and I think we can save it but the final call is Destry's so I've given him the green light to either edit it or void it.

What I was shooting for was total states, as I do include the 4 that are already on board, but I see it does appear that the title and background don't clearly match the options, so I'm thinking dropping a few words here will clear things up. But again, I defer to Destry's judgment.

I imagine he'll pop in sometime soon and we'll have an answer.

Sorry for the confusion.

posted 45 weeks ago

destry [Admin]

Market has been clarified and edited to cover the original intent of the market. Please feel free to submit another market asking about all 50 states, if you want to cover states not listed here. Anyone with questions please feel free to flag market or email me directly at destry@hubdub.com

posted 45 weeks ago

conspiracy2riot Level 13, Psychic (H$95,045)

Hey thanks, Destry. This was a much better edit job than the one I proposed. I'm happy.

posted 45 weeks ago

hfl13

Maine governor signed today = 5.

posted 44 weeks ago

ronlabuz Level 1, Newbie (H$42)

New Hampshire governor has signed the NH bill = 6.

New York decides next.

posted 40 weeks ago

mvguy

But the New Hampshire bill doesn't go in effect until 2010. The headline and the background info seem to contradict on whether that would count. I've flagged this to ask for a clarification as to whether it counts or not.

posted 40 weeks ago

Erik

Beware.
From the background: "This market is asking of the 11 states listed how many will enact legislation..."

Iowa has not enacted legislation. This was done by judicial fiat.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=112448663

posted 11 weeks ago

mungo10 Level 14, Prophet (H$233,138)

BTW, there are states that recognize gay marriage performed elsewhere that do not perform gay marriages themselves - New York, Rhode Island.

posted 11 weeks ago

blacksoapman Level 10, Genius (H$13,759)

Same-sex marriages are currently granted by five of the 50 states http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Same-sex_marriage_in_the_United_States

posted 8 weeks ago

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