Created Wed 29th Apr 7:54am PST by 
excavator
excavator 
Will John McCain R-AZ loose the primary election to Chris Simcox (Minuteman Project co-founder)
Background: Minuteman Project co-founder Chris Simcox has formally announced he will challenge John McCain in next year's election for the U.S. Senate.
Chris is the founder of the Minuteman Civil Defense Corps.
Illegal immigration will be one of the central themes of Simcox's race
McCain faced no competition in 2004
McCain has had a hard time following any sort of party platform in recent years.
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2009/04/mccain_faces_serious_primary_c.html
Chris is the founder of the Minuteman Civil Defense Corps.
Illegal immigration will be one of the central themes of Simcox's race
McCain faced no competition in 2004
McCain has had a hard time following any sort of party platform in recent years.
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2009/04/mccain_faces_serious_primary_c.html
Settlement details:As reported by Arizona Secretary Of State. Or reputable news source.
Forecast history %
| Yes by substantial margin greater then 5% |
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| Yes by a slim margin less then 5% |
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| No by slim margin less then 5% |
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| No by substantial margin greater then 5% |
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| McCain will drop out before primary |
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| Simcox will drop out before primary |
|
Question suspends in 40 weeks
- Activity: H$26,024 |
- Predictions: 57 |
Comments: 4
Suspend date: Sun 29th Aug 2010 9pm PST (40 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods: Yes by substantial margin greater then 5%: 20%, Yes by a slim margin less then 5%: 20%, No by slim margin less then 5%: 20%, No by substantial margin greater then 5%: 20%, McCain will drop out before primary: 10%, Simcox will drop out before primary: 10%
Action history:
Created Wed 29th Apr 7:54am PST by excavator
excavator 
Suspend date: Sun 29th Aug 2010 9pm PST (40 weeks to go) details 
Get widget!Predictions (57)
bob_loblaw
predicted Yes by a slim margin less then 5% (H$50 at 5%)
predicted No by substantial margin greater then 5% (H$100 at 59%)Comments (4)
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