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What will be the Official World Golf Ranking for Rory McIlroy at the end of 2009?

Background: Rory McIlroy was the youngest player ever to make the top 50 of the Official World Golf Rankings. Earlier this year after getting his first professional win at the Dubai Desert Classic, McIlroy moved all the way up to 16th in the world rankings.
McIlroy began the year ranked #39 in the World. What ranking will he have at year's end?

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source and/or http://www.officialworldgolfranking.com/home/default.sps

 
Forecast history %
Top 5
2%
6th - 10th
38%
11th - 15th
33%
16th -20th
9%
21st - 25th
6%
26th - 30th
5%
31st - 35th
4%
36th - 40th
2%
Outside top 40
2%
Question suspends in 4 weeks

Suspend date: Wed 23rd Dec 7:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Top 5: 5%, 6th - 10th: 8%, 11th - 15th: 13%, 16th -20th: 15%, 21st - 25th: 18%, 26th - 30th: 15%, 31st - 35th : 13%, 36th - 40th: 8%, Outside top 40: 5%

Action history:

Created Wed 29th Apr 8:51pm PST by sdchargers[Power User]

Suspend date: Wed 23rd Dec 7:59pm PST (4 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (86)

5 hours ago
hally predicted 6th - 10th (H$20 at 40%)
5 hours ago
hally predicted 6th - 10th (H$35 at 39%)
8 hours ago
hally predicted 6th - 10th (H$50 at 35%)
9 hours ago
hally predicted 6th - 10th (H$50 at 34%)
9 hours ago
hally predicted 6th - 10th (H$50 at 33%)

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