How many of the following 12 Indices will close UP on Tuesday, May 5?
Thanks again for the settlement info...trusting you to be accurate...and I'm confident that you are!
Only five closed up...six were down and one not traded...so the correct option is 3-5
N225 0 0 (closed)
HSI 16381.05 UP 16430.08
STI 2028.71 UP 2074.35
BSESN 12134.75 DOWN 12131.08
GDAXI 4902.45 DOWN 4853.03
FCHI 3237.97 DOWN 3225
MIBTEL 15630 DOWN 15543
FTSE 4243.22 (FRI) UP 4336.9
DJI 8426.74 DOWN 8410.65
GSPTSE 9870.37 UP 9880.72
MERV 1352.88 UP 1363.19
IXIC 1763.56 1754.12
from 12 indices, 1 not traded, 5 closed up, 6 closed down
(http://finance.yahoo.com/)
Background:
Asia : Nikkei 225 (^N225), Hang Seng (^HSI), Straits Times (^STI) and BSE Sensex (^BSESN)
Europe: DAX (^GDAXI), CAC 40 (^FCHI), MIBTel (^MIBTEL) and FTSE 100 (^FTSE)
Americas: Dow Jones Industrial (^DJI), TSX (^GSPTSE), MerVal (^MERV), and NASDAQ (^IXIC)
The codes can be found/used at finance.yahoo.com
Initial odds set by approximating a gentle bell curve over the equal distribution for the 13 possible outcomes.
Credits to infernalmachine for the original question (http://www.hubdub.com/users/infernalmachine)
Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. Preferred source: finance.yahoo.com
Not settled until after all markets final reportings - ie 2:20 pm PST
If any index is not active because of holiday etc, then it does not count toward UP tally.
| 0 - 2 |
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| 3 - 5 |
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| 6 |
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| 7 - 9 |
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| 10 - 12 |
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- Activity: H$13,641 |
- Predictions: 105 |
Comments: 3
Suspend date: Tue 5th May 6:30am PST
Settlement date: Wed 6th May 3:43pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 5th May 6:30am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: 0 - 2: 20%, 3 - 5: 23%, 6: 14%, 7 - 9: 23%, 10 - 12: 20%
Action history:
kruijs![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
: INDEX Mon. 4 Tue. 5
N225 0 0
HSI 16381.05 16430.08
STI 2028.71 2074.35
BSESN 12134.75 12131.08
GDAXI 4902.45 4853.03
FCHI 3237.97 3225
MIBTEL 15630 15543
FTSE 0 4336.9
DJI 8426.74 8410.65
GSPTSE 9870.37 9880.72
MERV 1352.88 1363.19
IXIC 1763.56 1754.12
from 12 indices, 1 not traded, 5 closed up, 6 closed down
(http://finance.yahoo.com/)
bayoubear![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: Thanks again for the settlement info...trusting you to be accurate...and I'm confident that you are!
Only five closed up...six were down and one not traded...so the correct option is 3-5
N225 0 0 (closed)
HSI 16381.05 UP 16430.08
STI 2028.71 UP 2074.35
BSESN 12134.75 DOWN 12131.08
GDAXI 4902.45 DOWN 4853.03
FCHI 3237.97 DOWN 3225
MIBTEL 15630 DOWN 15543
FTSE 4243.22 (FRI) UP 4336.9
DJI 8426.74 DOWN 8410.65
GSPTSE 9870.37 UP 9880.72
MERV 1352.88 UP 1363.19
IXIC 1763.56 1754.12
from 12 indices, 1 not traded, 5 closed up, 6 closed down
(http://finance.yahoo.com/)
Suspend date: Tue 5th May 6:30am PST
Settlement date: Wed 6th May 3:43pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 5th May 6:30am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details 
Get widget!Predictions (105)
barcher
predicted 6 (H$20 at 23%)
galad
predicted 6 (H$20 at 20%)
jonica
predicted 3 - 5 (H$20 at 39%)
sliq50
predicted 3 - 5 (H$20 at 39%)Comments (3)
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http://www.hubdub.com/m40500/Hudbub_Derivates_Are_Hubdubers_collective_geniuses
S = (5/4) * 43 - 25 = 28.75
two day average is: 20.00
(way to go, guys!)
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