Created Sat 2nd May 11:12am PST by

kruijs [Power User]

How many of the following 12 Indices will close UP on Thursday, May 7?

Settled as 6

6 of the indices closed up for Thursday

See comment section for data....

Thanks Infernal Machine ! ! !

Background:

Background: This suspends after the Asian markets have closed, half an hour before the European markets do, and early in the Americas trading day.

Asia : Nikkei 225 (^N225), Hang Seng (^HSI), Straits Times (^STI) and BSE Sensex (^BSESN)
Europe: DAX (^GDAXI), CAC 40 (^FCHI), MIBTel (^MIBTEL) and FTSE 100 (^FTSE)
Americas: Dow Jones Industrial (^DJI), TSX (^GSPTSE), MerVal (^MERV), and NASDAQ (^IXIC)

The codes can be found/used at finance.yahoo.com

Initial odds set by approximating a gentle bell curve over the equal distribution for the 13 possible outcomes.

Credits to infernalmachine for the original question (http://www.hubdub.com/users/infernalmachine)

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. Preferred source: finance.yahoo.com

Not settled until after all markets final reportings - ie 2:20 pm PST
If any index is not active because of holiday etc, then it does not count toward UP tally.

Forecast history %

0 - 2

3 - 5

14%

7 - 9

18%

10 - 12

59%

Settled as 6 on Mon 11th May 7:43am PST

Activity: H$16,070
Predictions: 91
Comments: 8

Suspend date: Thu 7th May 6:30am PST
Settlement date: Mon 11th May 7:43am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 7th May 6:30am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: 0 - 2: 20%, 3 - 5: 23%, 6: 14%, 7 - 9: 23%, 10 - 12: 20%

Action history:

Created Sat 2nd May 11:12am PST by

kruijs [Power User]

Changed Suspend date Sat 2nd May 6:58pm PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: was: "2009-05-07 12:00:00"

Suspended Thu 7th May 6:30am PST : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Sun 10th May 5:22pm PST by

infernalmachine [Power User]

: Right. The correct answer was "6". See the comments for the table of results, but don't use the table links -- they don't work. The following comment has the correct links (in the identical order!).

Settled as '6' Mon 11th May 7:43am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: 6 of the indices closed up for Thursday

See comment section for data....

Thanks Infernal Machine ! ! !

hide

Get widget!

Predictions (91)

28 weeks ago

infernalmachine [Power User]

predicted 7 - 9 (H$100 at 14%)

28 weeks ago

infernalmachine [Power User]

predicted 6 (H$100 at 7%)

28 weeks ago

infernalmachine [Power User]

predicted 3 - 5 (H$100 at 13%)

28 weeks ago

infernalmachine [Power User]

predicted 3 - 5 (H$100 at 11%)

28 weeks ago

infernalmachine [Power User]

predicted 7 - 9 (H$100 at 13%)

Comments (8)

kruijs [Power User]

posted 28 weeks ago

bayoubear [Admin]

Can anyone provide the results for Thursday's markets???

Thanks for the links for Friday's....

posted 27 weeks ago

infernalmachine [Power User]

Sure. Correct option: 6 up.

Index	Prev Close	Close	Dir	Diff	%
Nikkei 225	8,977.37	9,385.70	UP	408.33	4.55%	http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EN225<;/td>
Hang Seng	16,834.57	17,217.89	UP	383.32	2.28%	http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EHSI<;/td>
Straits Times	2,179.05	2,241.60	UP	62.55	2.87%	http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5ESTI<;/td>
BSE Sensex	11,952.75	12,116.94	UP	164.19	1.37%	http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EBSESN<;/td>
DAX	4,880.71	4,804.10	DOWN	-76.61	-1.57%	http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EGDAXI<;/td>
CAC 40	3,283.51	3,251.52	DOWN	-31.99	-0.97%	http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EFCHI<;/td>
MIBTel	15,817.00	15,642.00	DOWN	-175.00	-1.11%	http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EMIBTEL<;/td>
FTSE 100	4,396.50	4,398.70	UP	2.20	0.05%	http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EFTSE<;/td>
Dow Jones Ind	8,512.28	8,409.85	DOWN	-102.43	-1.20%	http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EDJI<;/td>
TSX	10,143.43	9,967.05	DOWN	-176.38	-1.74%	http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EGSPTSE<;/td>
MerVal	1,309.91	1,423.92	UP	114.01	8.70%	http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EMERV<;/td>
NASDAQ	1,759.10	1,716.24	DOWN	-42.86	-2.44%	http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EIXIC<;/td>

		# UP?	6

posted 27 weeks ago

infernalmachine [Power User]

posted 27 weeks ago

infernalmachine [Power User]

The Merval previous close was 1409.91 (not 1309.91). So it was UP 14.01 (not 114.01). which is quite a bit less than a 8.7% increase. But it doesn't change the

posted 27 weeks ago

infernalmachine [Power User]

The Merval previous close was 1409.91 (not 1309.91). So it was UP 14.01 (not 114.01). which is quite a bit less than a 8.7% increase. But it doesn't change the

posted 27 weeks ago

infernalmachine [Power User]

The Merval previous close was 1409.91 (not 1309.91). So it was UP 14.01 (not 114.01). which is quite a bit less than a 8.7% increase. But it doesn't change the

posted 27 weeks ago

infernalmachine [Power User]

result for the question.

posted 27 weeks ago