Which Summer Blockbuster will make the most at the US box office?

From one of the articles accompanying this prediction question:

"Movie theatres are where we go when a plane ticket is too expensive - the ultimate low-cost staycation. The notion of films as an escape from tough times isn't just a myth. Research from the National Association of Theatre Owners in Washington shows box-office numbers were up during five of the last seven economic downturns. And grumble as you like about ticket prices, movies are typically cheaper than concerts, sporting events, drinking, gambling or private therapy."

Wonderful question !

Thanks :)

What if we get drunk, go to the movie, AND gamble about its success? The ultimate staycation!

lol, spot on, eliminati.

can anyone explain to me why transformers is so high, am i a year off or something, i looked aat this years trailer and it looks like garbage. I'm worried i'm betting on something all ready decided?

The bidding is for the 2009 summer blockbuster season....if you think Transformers is going to flop then I guess you have a real opportunity to make some $$ on this one!

Even if the movie sucks it will easy outperform lots of other movies including XMen and Star Trek: 250 Mio is a flop 300 Mio ok and 350 Mio a hit for this movie. I liked the trailer.\\r
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\\nThis is similar to the stupid Spiderman movies each movie > 300 Mio.\\r
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\\nMy guess is the effects are better and Megan Fox is still hot - this will continue a very successful franchise. HSX predicts 294.59 Mio in 4 weeks. Transformers 1 made 319 Mio.\\r
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\\nThis is between Transformers and Harry Potter. HP is suffering from age of its audience and actors ;-)

I was just worried at first because I lost hubdub $ on whether or not Night Rider would be canceled before the end of the first season, not realizing when I watched the clips that it was all ready at the end of its first season. I agree with you hfl13 that many movies are essentially eliminated. I don\'t want to trod on your enjoyment of Transformers, it\'s just not really my taste and I don\'t really think it will appeal to too many girls.

Come on UP, 18,000 for 100. Get those kids out of school and into the movies.

To me this is a no brainer for transformers...

Night at the Museum made 70 million it's first week out. Is this the twilight zone?

68 million opening for UP!!! Go!!!

44 million 2nd weekend - go UP!!

Up won´t beat Star Trek. And Star Trek is a big competition for Harry Potter for Place 2. Transformers is expected to gain 305 million in the first 4 weeks. The movie needs to massively underperform the expectations.

rotten tomato reviewers did not think too much of transformers....50% tomatometer...

@coolcraft moviegoers don´t think too highly about rotten tomatoes ! :-)

#15 Up showed strong attendance the last weeks and beat Star Trek for second place - but Transformers is at 339 Mio US$ after 19 days and will finish between 370 and 400. These numbers are very hard to impossible to beat by Harry Potter and I don´t see a surprise movie looming.

hifi13, you telling me my UP is going to finish 2nd??? No, no, no.

Well y'all Mr Potter beat Transformers out of sight on its opening night midnight screening - $18.5m to $16m - don't rule out the Brits yet

got great reviews from bloomberg and others here...at least 4 stars...Go Harry!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

THE FIGHT IS ON!

Harry Potter has returned with some princely returns at the box office. The new big-screen adventure "Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince" took in $79.5 million domestically over opening weekend and $159.7 million since debuting last Wednesday.

That's the second-highest start ever for a movie premiering on Wednesday, trailing the $200 million five-day opening for last month's "Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen."

And the fight is over for HP6 ! ;-)

Last contender "G.I. Joe"

uh...how did this settle already???? g.i. joe just came out and harry potter's only been out like 3 weeks "Just for ease of settlement we will use 6 week totals for each of the films."

@pics: you should "flag for review" with your concerns so that an admin can look it over :)

the response i got was that no other film had a chance and the outcome was too obvious to allow it to stay open 5 more weeks....i saved the webpage from transformers on day 43 and potter is averaging over a million dollars more per day thru day 26, and is earning more per day than transformers was on the same numbered day(i.e. potter earned more on day 26 than transformers did on it's day 26)...if potter has earned more than $390,105,115 on day 43 i hope this will be re-settled...while i understand box office receipts will continue to lower each day, the 6-week time frame was added on may 4th and all subsequent bets were made with full knowledge of the fact that H$ will be tied up in this market for awhile...this market has not come to an obvious conclusion and to settle it now is premature and outside of the rules set forth for the market...why even state that we will use a 6-week time frame if we're not?...what time frame was used to settle this? was it opening weekend only?

I already responded to pics, but just FYI to interested parties:
If you look at the numbers, Harry is 100 million behind where Transformers was at day 27 and not really making any more per day than Transformers did. There's no way it can get there.

Additionally, GI Joe made only 50 million its opening weekend vs 100 million for Transformers. There's just no way that it can beat Transformers performance with such a soft opening.

The 6-week timeframe was if there was a close race between some of the shows. We do have a 99% rule though -- if its 99% certain what the outcome will be we can go ahead and settle it without waiting. In this case, there is a 99.9% certainity that Transformers will win after all the box office receipts are in. As I said, should that somehow not be the case, the market will most definitely be resettled. (and in my favor since my h$ was on Harry too!)

Jenni, I appreciate that the 99% rule makes a lot of sense. I did very well on this question and was not looking forward to having my h$ tied up for several more weeks.