Created Mon 4th May 5:41am PST by

How successfully will the HD community pick the winners of games of NHL playoffs Round 2?

Settled as AvgSuccess between -5 and 0

The final AvgSuccess was -1 (Total Success was -38 in 27 games -- rounds to -1)

See Comment #17 for final table of results, http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/12380369/site/21683474/page/2/ (Conference Semifinals section) for game results. The 27 individual Hubdub game questions have their links in the comments section of this question in the daily update postings.

Background:

Background: Consider a question with only 2 options (Yes/No, Which team will win (if ties not allowed), etc.). We'll say that the question forecasts a result X if option X has a higher probability at suspension time than the other option. Define the Sureness of this forecast as the higher probability minus the lower one.

When the result becomes known, we calculate the Success of the forecast as equal to the Sureness if correct, and equal to -1*Sureness if wrong. The Sureness runs from 0 to 100, so the Success will be between -100 and 100.

Round 2 of the Stanley Cup Playoff has 4 match-ups (series) which each run between 4 and 7 games (16-28 games in all).

This question asks about the average Success over all these games (AvgSuccess) of questions of the form: http://www.hubdub.com/m40655/Stanley_Cup_Playoffs__Vancouver_Canucks__Chicago_Blackhawks__Who_will_win_Game_3 (by sdchargers). The average will be rounded to integer form (1.50 becomes 2, while -13.50 becomes -14).

See Comment #1 for Table showing previous results. The first 4 columns cover the relevant amounts for the question. The 5th and 6th refer to how many forecasts were correct. Even with a % Correct over 70%, the AvgSuccess is only 10. (Games without questions were ignored, but it's likely all future games will be covered.) At a glance, it seems that AvgSuccess will be around 0 when the % Correct is around 50%. But it's affected by how right or wrong the forecasts were.

Initial odds attempt to balance the tendency for us to get smarter about the results as the series progress with the fact that we are not predicting so well in Round 2 so far. Suspends after all teams have played 4 games (at least 3 series will still be undecided).

Settlement details:As reported by infernalmachine who will maintain a daily update of game/question results in the comments section. Questions will either be by sdchargers or equivalent to his, and will be linked to in the comments with the results.

Forecast history %

AvgSuccess greater than 12

16%

AvgSuccess between 7 and 12 (incl)

17%

AvgSuccess between 1 and 6

37%

AvgSuccess between -5 and 0

22%

AvgSuccess between -11 and -6

AvgSuccess less than -11

Settled as AvgSuccess between -5 and 0 on Sun 17th May 11:44am PST

Activity: H$5,896
Predictions: 36
Comments: 17

Suspend date: Sat 9th May 6:30pm PST
Settlement date: Sun 17th May 11:44am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 9th May 6:30pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: AvgSuccess greater than 12: 10%, AvgSuccess between 7 and 12 (incl): 21%, AvgSuccess between 1 and 6 : 38%, AvgSuccess between -5 and 0 : 20%, AvgSuccess between -11 and -6: 8%, AvgSuccess less than -11: 3%

Action history:

Created Mon 4th May 5:41am PST by

infernalmachine [Power User]

Suspended Sat 9th May 6:30pm PST : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Fri 15th May 12:57pm PST by

infernalmachine [Power User]

: "AvgSuccess between -5 and 0"
The final AvgSuccess was -1 (Total Success was -38 in 27 games -- rounds to -1)

See Comment #17 for final table of results, http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/12380369/site/21683474/page/2/ (Conference Semifinals section) for game results. The 27 individual Hubdub game questions have their links in the comments section of this question in the daily update postings.

Settled as 'AvgSuccess between -5 and 0 ' Sun 17th May 11:44am PST by

nigeleccles [Admin]

: The final AvgSuccess was -1 (Total Success was -38 in 27 games -- rounds to -1)

See Comment #17 for final table of results, http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/12380369/site/21683474/page/2/ (Conference Semifinals section) for game results. The 27 individual Hubdub game questions have their links in the comments section of this question in the daily update postings.

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Predictions (36)

28 weeks ago

waynem Level 10, Genius (H$14,699)

predicted AvgSuccess between 7 and 12 (incl) (H$100 at 16%)

28 weeks ago

cookietime Level 15, Seer (H$292,183)

predicted AvgSuccess between -5 and 0 (H$250 at 20%)

28 weeks ago

cookietime Level 15, Seer (H$292,183)

predicted AvgSuccess between 1 and 6 (H$250 at 38%)

28 weeks ago

charlesf Level 15, Seer (H$300,875)

predicted AvgSuccess between -5 and 0 (H$50 at 19%)

28 weeks ago

charlesf Level 15, Seer (H$300,875)

predicted AvgSuccess between 1 and 6 (H$50 at 37%)

Comments (17)

infernalmachine [Power User]

Table for Background Text

Round	Success Sum	Games Predicted	AvgSuccess	Correct Predictions	% Correct

r1 east	90	19	5	13	68%
r1 west	164	17	10	12	71%

r1 both	254	36	7	25	69%

r2 so far	-22	7	-3	3	43%

all playoffs	232	43	5	28	65%

posted 28 weeks ago

infernalmachine [Power User]

And here's the results of the first 7 games of Round 2 (the Conference Semi-Finals)

	VAN	CHI
Game #	% Van	% Chi	Forecast	Sureness	Actual Wins	Success	Games	Sum Succ
1	46	54	CHI	8	VAN	-8	2	-18
2	55	45	VAN	10	CHI	-10

	DET	ANA
Game #	% Det	% Ana	Forecast	Sureness	Actual Wins	Success	Games	Sum Succ
1	75	25	DET	50	DET	50	2	-10
2	80	20	DET	60	ANA	-60

	BOS	CAR
Game #	% Bos	% Car	Forecast	Sureness	Actual Wins	Success	Games	Sum Succ
1	75	25	BOS	50	BOS	50	2	-4
2	77	23	BOS	54	CAR	-54

	WAS	PIT
Game #	% Was	% Pit	Forecast	Sureness	Actual Wins	Success	Games	Sum Succ
1	55	45	WAS	10	WAS	10	1	10

Tot Succ	Tot Games	Tot Av Succ
-22	7	-3

posted 28 weeks ago

infernalmachine [Power User]

And the 7 questions so far:
http://www.hubdub.com/m40095/Stanley_Cup_Playoffs__Pittsburgh_Penguins__Washington_Capitals__Who_will_win_Game_1
http://www.hubdub.com/m40097/Stanley_Cup_Playoffs__Carolina_Hurricanes__Boston_Bruins__Who_will_win_Game_1
http://www.hubdub.com/m40455/Stanley_Cup_Playoffs__Carolina_Hurricanes__Boston_Bruins__Who_will_win_Game_2
http://www.hubdub.com/m40098/Stanley_Cup_Playoffs__Anaheim_Ducks__Detroit_Red_Wings__Who_will_win_Game_1
http://www.hubdub.com/m40454/Stanley_Cup_Playoffs__Anaheim_Ducks__Detroit_Red_Wings__Who_will_win_Game_2
http://www.hubdub.com/m40099/Stanley_Cup_Playoffs__Chicago_Blackhawks__Vancouver_Canucks__Who_will_win_Game_1
http://www.hubdub.com/m40409/Stanley_Cup_Playoffs__Who_will_win_game_2_Chicago_Blackhawks_or_Vancouver_Canucks

posted 28 weeks ago

infernalmachine [Power User]

After May 4 game

AvgSuccess up 1 to -2

Tot Succ	Tot Games	Tot Av Succ
-14	8	-2

	VAN	CHI
Game #	% Van	% Chi	Forecast	Sureness	Actual Wins	Success	Games	Sum Succ
1	46	54	CHI	8	VAN	-8	2	-18
2	55	45	VAN	10	CHI	-10

	DET	ANA
Game #	% Det	% Ana	Forecast	Sureness	Actual Wins	Success	Games	Sum Succ
1	75	25	DET	50	DET	50	2	-10
2	80	20	DET	60	ANA	-60

	BOS	CAR
Game #	% Bos	% Car	Forecast	Sureness	Actual Wins	Success	Games	Sum Succ
1	75	25	BOS	50	BOS	50	2	-4
2	77	23	BOS	54	CAR	-54

	WAS	PIT
Game #	% Was	% Pit	Forecast	Sureness	Actual Wins	Success	Games	Sum Succ
1	55	45	WAS	10	WAS	10	2	18
2	54	46	WAS	8	WAS	8

http://www.hubdub.com/m40554/Stanley_Cup_Playoffs__Pittsburgh_Penguins__Washington_Capitals__Who_will_win_Game_2

posted 28 weeks ago

cisse

U confuse me.

posted 28 weeks ago

infernalmachine [Power User]

It's not meant to be confusing. Maybe I made it look harder to understand than it really is by formally defining the terms (like Sureness)?

An example might help to explain. For last night's game (Game 2 Was-Pit), the odds that Washington would win in the question in the link in comment 4 were at 54% when the question suspended. [See the last line of the big table in comment 4.]

That's 8 more than Pittsburgh at 46%. So we say that "we" forecast a Washington win with a Sureness of 8. As it turned out, Washington did win. So how successful were "we"? Our Success will be 8, because we were right. (If Pittsburgh had won, our Success would have been -8, because we were wrong in our forcast.)

The question asks what will the average of the <Success values be for all the games played (and forecast at Hubdub via questions) in this round of the playoffs. That's all that's going on with this question.

A simpler question might have been to ask what percentage of games will we predict correctly. But I wanted to also take into account how right or wrong we were. For example, see Game 2 of the Detroit-Anaheim series in Comment 4. We predicted, 80% to 20% that Detroit would win, but we got it wrong. That's a Success score of -60.

Hope this helps.

posted 28 weeks ago

infernalmachine [Power User]

After May 5 game

AvgSuccess stays at -2. The Vancouver-Chicago question ended at 50-50, so zero Success points there. And the Detroit-Anaheim question was 52/48 in favor of Detroit but they lost.

Tot Succ	Tot Games	Tot Av Succ
-18	10	-2

	VAN	CHI
Game #	% Van	% Chi	Forecast	Sureness	Actual Wins	Success	Games	Sum Success
1	46	54	CHI	8	VAN	-8	3	-18
2	55	45	VAN	10	CHI	-10
3	50	50	---	0	VAN	0

	DET	ANA
Game #	% Det	% Ana	Forecast	Sureness	Actual Wins	Success	Games	Sum Success
1	75	25	DET	50	DET	50	3	-14
2	80	20	DET	60	ANA	-60
3	52	48	DET	4	ANA	-4

	BOS	CAR
Game #	% Bos	% Car	Forecast	Sureness	Actual Wins	Success	Games	Sum Success
1	75	25	BOS	50	BOS	50	2	-4
2	77	23	BOS	54	CAR	-54

	WAS	PIT
Game #	% Was	% Pit	Forecast	Sureness	Actual Wins	Success	Games	Sum Success
1	55	45	WAS	10	WAS	10	2	18
2	54	46	WAS	8	WAS	8

http://www.hubdub.com/m40655/Stanley_Cup_Playoffs__Vancouver_Canucks__Chicago_Blackhawks__Who_will_win_Game_3
http://www.hubdub.com/m40662/Stanley_Cup_Playoffs__Detroit_Red_Wings__Anaheim_Ducks__Who_will_win_Game_3

http://tsn.ca/nhl/scores/

posted 28 weeks ago

infernalmachine [Power User]

After May 6 games

AvgSuccess stays at -2. Both questions ended at 51%-49%. One was right, the other wrong.

Tot Success	Tot Games	AvgSuccess
-18	12	-2

	VAN	CHI
Game #	% Van	% Chi	Forecast	Sureness	Actual Wins	Success	Games	Sum Success
1	46	54	CHI	8	VAN	-8	3	-18
2	55	45	VAN	10	CHI	-10
3	50	50	---	0	VAN	0

	DET	ANA
Game #	% Det	% Ana	Forecast	Sureness	Actual Wins	Success	Games	Sum Success
1	75	25	DET	50	DET	50	3	-14
2	80	20	DET	60	ANA	-60
3	52	48	DET	4	ANA	-4

	BOS	CAR
Game #	% Bos	% Car	Forecast	Sureness	Actual Wins	Success	Games	Sum Success
1	75	25	BOS	50	BOS	50	3	-6
2	77	23	BOS	54	CAR	-54
3	51	49	BOS	2	CAR	-2

	WAS	PIT
Game #	% Was	% Pit	Forecast	Sureness	Actual Wins	Success	Games	Sum Success
1	55	45	WAS	10	WAS	10	3	20
2	54	46	WAS	8	WAS	8
3	49	51	PIT	2	PIT	2

http://www.hubdub.com/m40848/Stanley_Cup_Playoffs__Washington_Capitals__Pittsburgh_Penguins__Who_will_win_Game_3
http://www.hubdub.com/m40847/Stanley_Cup_Playoffs__Boston_Bruins__Carolina_Hurricanes__Who_will_win_Game_3

http://tsn.ca/nhl/scores/

posted 28 weeks ago

infernalmachine [Power User]

After May 7 games:

AvgSuccess creeps to -1. Both questions ended at 52%-48%. One was right, the other wrong.

Tot Success	Tot Games	AvgSuccess
-18	14	-1

	VAN	CHI
Game #	% Van	% Chi	Forecast	Sureness	Actual Wins	Success	Games	Sum Success
1	46	54	CHI	8	VAN	-8	4	-22
2	55	45	VAN	10	CHI	-10
3	50	50	---	0	VAN	0
4	52	48	VAN	4	CHI	-4

	DET	ANA
Game #	% Det	% Ana	Forecast	Sureness	Actual Wins	Success	Games	Sum Success
1	75	25	DET	50	DET	50	4	-10
2	80	20	DET	60	ANA	-60
3	52	48	DET	4	ANA	-4
4	52	48	DET	4	DET	4

	BOS	CAR
Game #	% Bos	% Car	Forecast	Sureness	Actual Wins	Success	Games	Sum Success
1	75	25	BOS	50	BOS	50	3	-6
2	77	23	BOS	54	CAR	-54
3	51	49	BOS	2	CAR	-2

	WAS	PIT
Game #	% Was	% Pit	Forecast	Sureness	Actual Wins	Success	Games	Sum Success
1	55	45	WAS	10	WAS	10	3	20
2	54	46	WAS	8	WAS	8
3	49	51	PIT	2	PIT	2

http://www.hubdub.com/m40950/Stanley_Cup_Playoffs__Vancouver_Canucks__Chicago_Blackhawks__Who_will_win_Game_4
http://www.hubdub.com/m40951/Stanley_Cup_Playoffs__Detroit_Red_Wings__Anaheim_Ducks__Who_will_win_Game_4

http://tsn.ca/nhl/scores/

posted 28 weeks ago

infernalmachine [Power User]

After May 8 games:

AvgSuccess balancing at 0. Success at predicting the Washington-Pittsburgh matchup makes up for the prediction errors in the other three series.

Tot Success	Tot Games	AvgSuccess
0	16	0

	VAN	CHI
Game #	% Van	% Chi	Forecast	Sureness	Actual Wins	Success	Games	Sum Success
1	46	54	CHI	8	VAN	-8	4	-22
2	55	45	VAN	10	CHI	-10
3	50	50	---	0	VAN	0
4	52	48	VAN	4	CHI	-4

	DET	ANA
Game #	% Det	% Ana	Forecast	Sureness	Actual Wins	Success	Games	Sum Success
1	75	25	DET	50	DET	50	4	-10
2	80	20	DET	60	ANA	-60
3	52	48	DET	4	ANA	-4
4	52	48	DET	4	DET	4

	BOS	CAR
Game #	% Bos	% Car	Forecast	Sureness	Actual Wins	Success	Games	Sum Success
1	75	25	BOS	50	BOS	50	4	-6
2	77	23	BOS	54	CAR	-54
3	51	49	BOS	2	CAR	-2
4	50	50	---	0	CAR	0

	WAS	PIT
Game #	% Was	% Pit	Forecast	Sureness	Actual Wins	Success	Games	Sum Success
1	55	45	WAS	10	WAS	10	4	38
2	54	46	WAS	8	WAS	8
3	49	51	PIT	2	PIT	2
4	41	59	PIT	18	PIT	18

http://www.hubdub.com/m41062/Stanley_Cup_Playoffs__Washington_Capitals__Pittsburgh_Penguins__Who_will_win_Game_4
http://www.hubdub.com/m41061/Stanley_Cup_Playoffs__Boston_Bruins__Carolina_Hurricanes__Who_will_win_Game_4

http://tsn.ca/nhl/scores/

posted 28 weeks ago

infernalmachine [Power User]

After May 9 games:

AvgSuccess balancing at 0. Success at predicting the Washington-Pittsburgh matchup makes up for the prediction errors in the other three series.

Tot Success	Tot Games	AvgSuccess
-28	18	-2

	VAN	CHI
Game #	% Van	% Chi	Forecast	Sureness	Actual Wins	Success	Games	Sum Success
1	46	54	CHI	8	VAN	-8	5	-36
2	55	45	VAN	10	CHI	-10
3	50	50	---	0	VAN	0
4	52	48	VAN	4	CHI	-4
5	57	43	VAN	14	CHI	-14

	DET	ANA
Game #	% Det	% Ana	Forecast	Sureness	Actual Wins	Success	Games	Sum Success
1	75	25	DET	50	DET	50	4	-10
2	80	20	DET	60	ANA	-60
3	52	48	DET	4	ANA	-4
4	52	48	DET	4	DET	4

	BOS	CAR
Game #	% Bos	% Car	Forecast	Sureness	Actual Wins	Success	Games	Sum Success
1	75	25	BOS	50	BOS	50	4	-6
2	77	23	BOS	54	CAR	-54
3	51	49	BOS	2	CAR	-2
4	50	50	---	0	CAR	0

	WAS	PIT
Game #	% Was	% Pit	Forecast	Sureness	Actual Wins	Success	Games	Sum Success
1	55	45	WAS	10	WAS	10	5	24
2	54	46	WAS	8	WAS	8
3	49	51	PIT	2	PIT	2
4	41	59	PIT	18	PIT	18
5	57	43	WAS	14	PIT	-14

http://www.hubdub.com/m41132/Stanley_Cup_Playoffs__Pittsburgh_Penguins__Washington_Capitals__Who_will_win_Game_5
http://www.hubdub.com/m41130/Stanley_Cup_Playoffs__Chicago_Blackhawks__Vancouver_Canucks__Who_will_win_Game_5

http://tsn.ca/nhl/scores/

posted 27 weeks ago

infernalmachine [Power User]

Comment in italics is wrong. Both games were wrongly predicted and the AvgSuccess is back to -2.

posted 27 weeks ago

infernalmachine [Power User]

After May 10 games:

AvgSuccess meanders back to -1. No forecast on the Detroit-Anaheim game, but the Boston-Carolina series is out of the red, forecast-wise.

Tot Success	Tot Games	AvgSuccess
-22	20	-1

	VAN	CHI
Game #	% Van	% Chi	Forecast	Sureness	Actual Wins	Success	Games	Sum Success
1	46	54	CHI	8	VAN	-8	5	-36
2	55	45	VAN	10	CHI	-10
3	50	50	---	0	VAN	0
4	52	48	VAN	4	CHI	-4
5	57	43	VAN	14	CHI	-14

	DET	ANA
Game #	% Det	% Ana	Forecast	Sureness	Actual Wins	Success	Games	Sum Success
1	75	25	DET	50	DET	50	5	-10
2	80	20	DET	60	ANA	-60
3	52	48	DET	4	ANA	-4
4	52	48	DET	4	DET	4
5	50	50	---	0	DET	0

	BOS	CAR
Game #	% Bos	% Car	Forecast	Sureness	Actual Wins	Success	Games	Sum Success
1	75	25	BOS	50	BOS	50	5	0
2	77	23	BOS	54	CAR	-54
3	51	49	BOS	2	CAR	-2
4	50	50	---	0	CAR	0
5	53	47	BOS	6	BOS	6

	WAS	PIT
Game #	% Was	% Pit	Forecast	Sureness	Actual Wins	Success	Games	Sum Success
1	55	45	WAS	10	WAS	10	5	24
2	54	46	WAS	8	WAS	8
3	49	51	PIT	2	PIT	2
4	41	59	PIT	18	PIT	18
5	57	43	WAS	14	PIT	-14

http://www.hubdub.com/m41131/Stanley_Cup_Playoffs__Anaheim_Ducks__Detroit_Red_Wings__Who_will_win_Game_5
http://www.hubdub.com/m41221/Stanley_Cup_Playoffs__Carolina_Hurricanes__Boston_Bruins__Who_will_win_Game_5

http://tsn.ca/nhl/scores/

posted 27 weeks ago

infernalmachine [Power User]

After May 11 games:

AvgSuccess back to 0. Very right on Chicago winning. Somewhat wrong on Pittsburgh beating Washington.

Tot Success	Tot Games	AvgSuccess
-2	22	0

	VAN	CHI
Game #	% Van	% Chi	Forecast	Sureness	Actual Wins	Success	Games	Sum Success
1	46	54	CHI	8	VAN	-8	6	-6
2	55	45	VAN	10	CHI	-10
3	50	50	---	0	VAN	0
4	52	48	VAN	4	CHI	-4
5	57	43	VAN	14	CHI	-14
6	35	65	CHI	30	CHI	30		Series over

	DET	ANA
Game #	% Det	% Ana	Forecast	Sureness	Actual Wins	Success	Games	Sum Success
1	75	25	DET	50	DET	50	5	-10
2	80	20	DET	60	ANA	-60
3	52	48	DET	4	ANA	-4
4	52	48	DET	4	DET	4
5	50	50	---	0	DET	0

	BOS	CAR
Game #	% Bos	% Car	Forecast	Sureness	Actual Wins	Success	Games	Sum Success
1	75	25	BOS	50	BOS	50	5	0
2	77	23	BOS	54	CAR	-54
3	51	49	BOS	2	CAR	-2
4	50	50	---	0	CAR	0
5	53	47	BOS	6	BOS	6

	WAS	PIT
Game #	% Was	% Pit	Forecast	Sureness	Actual Wins	Success	Games	Sum Success
1	55	45	WAS	10	WAS	10	6	14
2	54	46	WAS	8	WAS	8
3	49	51	PIT	2	PIT	2
4	41	59	PIT	18	PIT	18
5	57	43	WAS	14	PIT	-14
6	45	55	PIT	10	WAS	-10

http://www.hubdub.com/m41276/Stanley_Cup_Playoffs__Washington_Capitals__Pittsburgh_Penguins__Who_will_win_Game_6
http://www.hubdub.com/m41275/Stanley_Cup_Playoffs__Vancouver_Canucks__Chicago_Blackhawks__Who_will_win_Game_6

http://tsn.ca/nhl/scores/

posted 27 weeks ago

infernalmachine [Power User]

After May 12 games:

AvgSuccess down to -1. Wrong on both games, but not emphatically so. Still, not very encouraging over all. 3 games left: 1 tonight, 2 on Thursday.

Tot Success	Tot Games	AvgSuccess
-20	24	-1

	VAN	CHI
Game #	% Van	% Chi	Forecast	Sureness	Actual Wins	Success	Games	Sum Success
1	46	54	CHI	8	VAN	-8	6	-6
2	55	45	VAN	10	CHI	-10
3	50	50	---	0	VAN	0
4	52	48	VAN	4	CHI	-4
5	57	43	VAN	14	CHI	-14
6	35	65	CHI	30	CHI	30		Series over

	DET	ANA
Game #	% Det	% Ana	Forecast	Sureness	Actual Wins	Success	Games	Sum Success
1	75	25	DET	50	DET	50	6	-14
2	80	20	DET	60	ANA	-60
3	52	48	DET	4	ANA	-4
4	52	48	DET	4	DET	4
5	50	50	---	0	DET	0
6	52	48	DET	4	ANA	-4

	BOS	CAR
Game #	% Bos	% Car	Forecast	Sureness	Actual Wins	Success	Games	Sum Success
1	75	25	BOS	50	BOS	50	6	-14
2	77	23	BOS	54	CAR	-54
3	51	49	BOS	2	CAR	-2
4	50	50	---	0	CAR	0
5	53	47	BOS	6	BOS	6
6	43	57	CAR	14	BOS	-14

	WAS	PIT
Game #	% Was	% Pit	Forecast	Sureness	Actual Wins	Success	Games	Sum Success
1	55	45	WAS	10	WAS	10	6	14
2	54	46	WAS	8	WAS	8
3	49	51	PIT	2	PIT	2
4	41	59	PIT	18	PIT	18
5	57	43	WAS	14	PIT	-14
6	45	55	PIT	10	WAS	-10

http://www.hubdub.com/m41344/Stanley_Cup_Playoffs__Boston_Bruins__Carolina_Hurricanes__Who_will_win_Game_6
http://www.hubdub.com/m41345/Stanley_Cup_Playoffs__Detroit_Red_Wings__Anaheim_Ducks__Who_will_win_Game_6

http://tsn.ca/nhl/scores/

posted 27 weeks ago

infernalmachine [Power User]

After May 13 games:

AvgSuccess stays at -1. Slightly wrong on the lone game tonight. 2 games left: both on Thursday.

Tot Success	Tot Games	AvgSuccess
-24	25	-1

	VAN	CHI
Game #	% Van	% Chi	Forecast	Sureness	Actual Wins	Success	Games	Sum Success
1	46	54	CHI	8	VAN	-8	6	-6
2	55	45	VAN	10	CHI	-10
3	50	50	---	0	VAN	0
4	52	48	VAN	4	CHI	-4
5	57	43	VAN	14	CHI	-14
6	35	65	CHI	30	CHI	30		Series over

	DET	ANA
Game #	% Det	% Ana	Forecast	Sureness	Actual Wins	Success	Games	Sum Success
1	75	25	DET	50	DET	50	6	-14
2	80	20	DET	60	ANA	-60
3	52	48	DET	4	ANA	-4
4	52	48	DET	4	DET	4
5	50	50	---	0	DET	0
6	52	48	DET	4	ANA	-4

	BOS	CAR
Game #	% Bos	% Car	Forecast	Sureness	Actual Wins	Success	Games	Sum Success
1	75	25	BOS	50	BOS	50	6	-14
2	77	23	BOS	54	CAR	-54
3	51	49	BOS	2	CAR	-2
4	50	50	---	0	CAR	0
5	53	47	BOS	6	BOS	6
6	43	57	CAR	14	BOS	-14

	WAS	PIT
Game #	% Was	% Pit	Forecast	Sureness	Actual Wins	Success	Games	Sum Success
1	55	45	WAS	10	WAS	10	7	10
2	54	46	WAS	8	WAS	8
3	49	51	PIT	2	PIT	2
4	41	59	PIT	18	PIT	18
5	57	43	WAS	14	PIT	-14
6	45	55	PIT	10	WAS	-10
7	52	48	WAS	4	PIT	-4

http://www.hubdub.com/m41378/Stanley_Cup_Playoffs__Pittsburgh_Penguins__Washington_Capitals__Who_will_win_Game_76

http://tsn.ca/nhl/scores/

posted 27 weeks ago

infernalmachine [Power User]

After May 14 games:

Final Results: AvgSuccess stays at -1. Very right on the Detroit victory, but even more wrong on the Carolina one. The slightly pessimistic about our forecasting abilities win the day.

Tot Success	Tot Games	AvgSuccess
-38	27	-1

	VAN	CHI
Game #	% Van	% Chi	Forecast	Sureness	Actual Wins	Success	Games	Sum Success
1	46	54	CHI	8	VAN	-8	6	-6
2	55	45	VAN	10	CHI	-10
3	50	50	---	0	VAN	0
4	52	48	VAN	4	CHI	-4
5	57	43	VAN	14	CHI	-14
6	35	65	CHI	30	CHI	30		Series over

	DET	ANA
Game #	% Det	% Ana	Forecast	Sureness	Actual Wins	Success	Games	Sum Success
1	75	25	DET	50	DET	50	7	20
2	80	20	DET	60	ANA	-60
3	52	48	DET	4	ANA	-4
4	52	48	DET	4	DET	4
5	50	50	---	0	DET	0
6	52	48	DET	4	ANA	-4
7	67	33	DET	34	DET	34		Series over

	BOS	CAR
Game #	% Bos	% Car	Forecast	Sureness	Actual Wins	Success	Games	Sum Success
1	75	25	BOS	50	BOS	50	7	-62
2	77	23	BOS	54	CAR	-54
3	51	49	BOS	2	CAR	-2
4	50	50	---	0	CAR	0
5	53	47	BOS	6	BOS	6
6	43	57	CAR	14	BOS	-14
7	74	26	BOS	48	CAR	-48		Series over

	WAS	PIT
Game #	% Was	% Pit	Forecast	Sureness	Actual Wins	Success	Games	Sum Success
1	55	45	WAS	10	WAS	10	7	10
2	54	46	WAS	8	WAS	8
3	49	51	PIT	2	PIT	2
4	41	59	PIT	18	PIT	18
5	57	43	WAS	14	PIT	-14
6	45	55	PIT	10	WAS	-10
7	52	48	WAS	4	PIT	-4		Series over

http://www.hubdub.com/m41475/Stanley_Cup_Playoffs__Anaheim_Ducks__Detroit_Red_Wings__Who_will_win_Game_7
http://www.hubdub.com/m41474/Stanley_Cup_Playoffs__Carolina_Hurricanes__Boston_Bruins__Who_will_win_Game_7

http://tsn.ca/nhl/scores/

posted 27 weeks ago

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