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Who will own the North Pole?

Background: Under international law, no country currently owns the North Pole or the region of the Arctic Ocean surrounding it. Upon ratification of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, a country has a ten year period to make claims to extend its 200-nautical-mile (370 km) zone.

Due to this, Norway, Russia, Canada and Denmark launched projects to base claims that certain Arctic sectors should belong to their territories. The United States has signed, but not yet ratified this treaty.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_claims_in_the_Arctic


Which country will own the territory in which the North Pole lays, as determined by the Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS) (1) with respect to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (2)

1) http://www.un.org/Depts/los/clcs_new/clcs_home.htm
2) http://www.un.org/Depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/UNCLOS-TOC.htm

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. Suspend date adjustable. Settlement on announcement of the CLCS on ownership of that particular part of the Arctic. Settles the specific country (or "Any other country") if the CLCS grants it to that country. If it is granted to multiple countries it settles "Multiple countries". If it is granted to any other owner like organization or institute, or legal persons, or it determines to have no owner, it settles "No country".

 
Forecast history %
Russia
0%
Canada
0%
Denmark
1%
Norway
0%
USA
0%
Any other country
0%
Multiple countries
1%
No country
98%
Question suspends in 7 weeks

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (7 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Russia: 15%, Canada: 15%, Denmark: 15%, Norway: 15%, USA: 15%, Any other country: 5%, Multiple countries: 10%, No country: 10%

Action history:

Created Mon 4th May 11:22am PST by kruijs[Power User]

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (7 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (266)

6 days ago
oocares predicted No country (H$100 at 98%)
3 weeks ago
esop predicted Russia (H$10 at 0%)
3 weeks ago
esop predicted Russia (H$1 at 0%)
3 weeks ago
keyeshoveden[Power User] predicted No country (H$10,000 at 96%)
3 weeks ago
jank predicted No country (H$100 at 91%)

Comments (19)

  1 bernardo
Mh, the United Nations are an organization, but I suppose the North Pole staying under United Nations supervision would mean "multiple countries", right? Would the question ever settle in this case?
posted 26 weeks ago
No - read the last line of the settlement details. It has to be explicitly ceded to specific nations.

Personally, I think it should go to Poland... :-)
posted 26 weeks ago
But my guess is that they'll eventually settle on it being international waters - the northern-most claimed land (an Island of Greenland) is still about 700km from the pole, and there are other countries that will probably want a piece of the Arctic action - Japan for one, maybe China. The US typically hasn't accepted the idea that national claims extend in "segments" to the North Pole.
posted 26 weeks ago
How will a determination in favor of Santa Claus/ Father Christmas/ Kris Kringle etc be settled? As "No country", or as "Multiple countries"? I can't think of any country with better moral rights to the North Pole than Santa Claus. I for one am hoping for that outcome.
posted 26 weeks ago
  5 randburg
In the Neiman Marcus Christmas Catalogue next year: a gold foiled, Ghirandelli dark chocolate Passport to the North Pole, personally signed and stamped by Santa and delivered by FedEx in sleigh with reindeer. I hope the whole lot doesn't have to go down the chimney...
posted 26 weeks ago
  6 chuck
I'm pulling for Santa as well.
posted 26 weeks ago
On a related note - who owns Antarctica? I don't mean to start a global warming/no global warming war, but if it turns out as predicted, thats gonna be some prime real estate right there...
posted 26 weeks ago
  8 filanator
It's divided up into chunks like a pie graph. Australia has the biggest share.
posted 26 weeks ago
  9 bernardo
@tomrcraver: "But my guess is that they'll eventually settle on it being international waters"
Yes, but that's already the case. If there is no defined settlement date, this "decision" will be difficult to determine.
posted 26 weeks ago
  10 kruijs[Power User]
@tomcraver
from the settlement details "or it determines to have no owner" would also cover "being international waters". it just has to be determined (again) by that specific UN institution.

Caution: there is a 10 year period to make claims after the country ratified the UN convention on the Law of the Sea (which the US has not done yet), which makes this question a potential long term market (in matter of years or even decades).
posted 26 weeks ago
  11 konsama
Even if a country does end up in owning north pole, they'll soon sell it to the Arabs for the money and neutralize the economy depression in their country. Canada in someway has a quite a huge possibility of claiming the north pole they have set out Yukon Territory, North west Passages, Hans island etc with some factual proof to reinforce their argument. Plus, Canada became the first country to extend its boundaries northward to the North Pole, at least on paper, though not internationally recognized
posted 26 weeks ago
  12 eliminati
This question seems kind of gamed. The % for "No Country" started off way too low. Just my take.
posted 26 weeks ago
  13 tomrcraver
Does the CLCS have final say? I.e. do their rulings need to be ratified by the UN as a whole, or the Security Council? I looked over their rules and procedures, and did not see anything saying that was the case.
posted 26 weeks ago
  14 bigken1
nice question..
posted 26 weeks ago
  15 bigken1
ps.. I already own the north pole. I bought it, and the Brooklyn Bridge from New Yorkers, when I was young..
pps.. Anyone want to buy it from me?
posted 26 weeks ago
  16 sqlman[Admin]
Well, let's see: we in the U.S. really has no chance, as we didn't ratify the LotS, and--more importantly--we have no oceanographic features that will allow us to go farther north than the 86th parallel. For much the same reason, Norway is, for all intents and purposes, out of the running too. That leaves Russia, Denmark, and Canada holding the golden tickets. A simple glance at a territorial map shows that Denmark--by way of Greenland--holds land closer to the pole than either of the other two contenders, while Russia claims control over far and away the greatest percentage of the Arctic Ocean. But Russia's 2007 pronouncment that they own the entire Lomonosov Ridge--which extends from their continental shelf all the way under the pole--is looked at with skepticism by most other nations.

My guess: the entire thing will be sliced up into many parts with mostly convoluted, complex borders. The winner will be the oil companies. The loser will be the environment.
posted 26 weeks ago
  17 tomrcraver
Slight correction sqlman, from the wikipedia article:

"The Danish autonomous province of Greenland has the nearest coastline to the North Pole, and Denmark argues that the Lomonosov Ridge is in fact an extension of Greenland. "
posted 26 weeks ago
  18 sqlman[Admin]
That's pretty much what I was saying; Denmark, via Greenland, can make a very credible claim. But Russia does claim that the entirety of the Lomonosov Ridge--all 1000 or so miles of it--is "seismically" connected to them, and therefore they 'own' it.

The irony here is that this is all being fought over rights to the reserves of oil estimated to lie under the Arctic Ocean, of course...but the arguments wouldn't be taking place at all if oil-fueled global warming hadn't melted the Arctic sea ice enough to make exploration/exploitation possible and profitable. :-|
posted 26 weeks ago
  19 bigken1
The North pole is actually a geophysical location, like a mathematical point, about which the Earth is rotating. So, I think it should be possible, with modern technology, to go up there, remove whatever ice, etc. is there, before it melts away. Put it in a freezer, preserve it, and claim it, somehow. Take all kinds of photos, etc. for proof, etc. etc. Get a deed. Then you can say you own it, indeed. and you can "prove it".

I think the Ruskies, actually planted a flag on the arctic floor beneath the North pole a few years ago, in a modern day "land grab" kind of thing.
posted 26 weeks ago

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