Created Tue 5th May 10:09pm PST by

cookietime Level 15, Seer (H$290,014)

Swine Flu: Whats next - Vaccine or Nasty Mutation?

Settled as Vaccine first

China began mass vaccinations earlier this week.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090921/wl_asia_afp/healthfluchina_20090921115346

Background:

Background: As we speak, scientists are working hard on a vaccine to guard against the Swine flu, Pig Flu, Mexican Flu, AH1N1 or whatever its being called today. While this appears to be a reasonably mild flu, the media cautions us that it could mutate into a nasty cousin, similar to the 1918 outbreak. So which will come first, a mutation to a more damaging form or a vaccine? Question will settle on mainstream media reports of either and has a year to run...

Category Editor Clarification
The parameter for whether this flu morphs into a nasty mutation will be determined by wording to the effect that it has changed into a different/more lethal flu by at least two mainstream media sources.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

Vaccine first

94%

Nasty mutation first

Neither by May 6 2010

Settled as Vaccine first on Thu 24th Sep 3:45pm PST

Activity: H$52,286
Predictions: 57
Comments: 3

Suspend date: Thu 6th May 2010 3:59pm PST (23 weeks to go)
Settlement date: Thu 24th Sep 3:45pm PST

Initial likelihoods: Vaccine first: 70%, Nasty mutation first: 25%, Neither by May 6 2010: 5%

Action history:

Created Tue 5th May 10:09pm PST by

cookietime Level 15, Seer (H$290,014)

Suspended Wed 6th May 4:24am PST by

tisha

: clarifying question

Changed Description Wed 6th May 2:02pm PST by

tisha

: show details

... has a year to run~~...~~... Category Editor Clarification The parameter for whether this flu morphs into a nasty mutation will be determined by wording to the effect that it has changed into a different/more lethal flu by at least two mainstream media sources.

Unsuspended Wed 6th May 2:02pm PST by

tisha

: Clarification added to question

Settlement requested Sat 29th Aug 2:55pm PST by

cookietime Level 15, Seer (H$290,014)

: Is this enough - I don't know if a 'more lethal strain' equals a mutation? http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/2815413/Doctors-report-severe-new-strain

Suspended Sat 29th Aug 2:59pm PST by

tisha

: checking possible settlement

Unsuspended Sun 30th Aug 2:41pm PST by

tisha

: Although the Flu has got a new, more severe strain which directly affects the lungs, the WHO are specifically saying that a mutation has not yet occurred.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jTkkEKE5LtPih_5Jcc-3MpD0gOYQD9AC7UQ00

Settlement requested Thu 3rd Sep 12:28pm PST by

pics4d Level 14, Prophet (H$101,721)

: china approved a vaccine today

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125198466331383281.html

Suspended Sun 6th Sep 1:15am PST by

tisha

: checking potential settlement

Unsuspended Sun 6th Sep 1:27am PST by

tisha

Settlement requested Wed 23rd Sep 9:24am PST by

pics4d Level 14, Prophet (H$101,721)

: sry, i hit the wrong button...china has begun vaccinating ppl...from afp and reuters

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090921/wl_asia_afp/healthfluchina_20090921115346

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090922/hl_nm/us_flu_china_1

Suspended Wed 23rd Sep 1:53pm PST by

tisha

: checking question for potential settlement

Settled as 'Vaccine first' Thu 24th Sep 3:45pm PST by

tisha

: China began mass vaccinations earlier this week.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090921/wl_asia_afp/healthfluchina_20090921115346

hide

Suspend date: Thu 6th May 2010 3:59pm PST (23 weeks to go)
Settlement date: Thu 24th Sep 3:45pm PST details

Get widget!

Predictions (57)

9 weeks ago

divakaleigh Level 12, Guru (H$33,989)

predicted Vaccine first (H$800 at 94%)

10 weeks ago

divakaleigh Level 12, Guru (H$33,989)

predicted Vaccine first (H$3,000 at 86%)

10 weeks ago

craig814 Level 11, Legend (H$19,272)

predicted Vaccine first (H$100 at 81%)

10 weeks ago

anglknws Level 1, Newbie (H$328)

predicted Nasty mutation first (H$100 at 14%)

11 weeks ago

adamo

predicted Vaccine first (H$100 at 82%)

Comments (3)

cookietime Level 15, Seer (H$290,014)

Settlement of a vaccine will be based on when it first becomes commercially available by the way

posted 28 weeks ago

kruijs [Power User]

Chinese vaccine maker Sinovac Biotech Ltd hopes to put its H1N1 vaccine through its first clinical trial by the end of July, as pharmaceutical firms race to put vaccines against the new flu virus into commercial production.

On Friday, Novartis AG said it expected its H1N1 vaccine to be available by autumn after it produced a first batch for testing and clinical trials.

Baxter International Inc said it was on full-scale production and hoped to have a commercially available A/H1N1 vaccine as early as next month.

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssHealthcareNews/idUSPEK3173220090615

posted 22 weeks ago

sqlman [Admin]

09/01: The new H1N1 virus appears to outcompete seasonal flu, making it less likely to mix with other circulating flu viruses into a "superbug" as some had feared, U.S. researchers said on Tuesday. The H1N1, or swine flu, virus also spreads more quickly and causes more severe disease in animal studies, the team said, but it shows no signs of mixing with either of the two seasonal flu viruses to form a new, so-called reassortant virus. "The results suggest that 2009 H1N1 influenza may outcompete seasonal flu virus strains and may be more communicable as well," said Dr. Anthony Fauci, of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, part of the National Institutes of Health.

http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSN01489207

http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSN01489207

posted 11 weeks ago

Please log in or join to add a comment

Stake virtual dollars on the outcomes of real news stories! Win more if you're right and climb the leaderboards Learn more...

By joining you are agreeing to our terms of service

Related News
This news is selected automatically based on the question, its background, options and tags

score: 10

Swine Flu Not an Accident From a Lab, W.H.O. Says

New York Times 27 weeks ago

The swine flu virus did not result from a laboratory accident, the World Health Organization said Thursday, working to debunk rumors started by an Australian virologist and circulated by news outlets all

score: 10

WHO Meets On Swine Flu Vaccine

Time 27 weeks ago

(GENEVA) ? As swine flu cases topped 6,600 worldwide, vaccine makers and other experts met Thursday at the World Health Organization to discuss the tough decisions that must be made quickly to fight

score: 10

WHO meets on production of swine flu vaccine

Washington Post 27 weeks ago

LONDON -- As swine flu cases hit 6,500 worldwide, World Health Organization officials were meeting with vaccine manufacturers and other experts in Geneva on Thursday to discuss making a vaccine to fight the

score: 10

Swine Flu's Fall Return: 3 Steps We Must Take Now

US News 27 weeks ago

By Bernadine Healy, M.D. The H1N1 virus, or swine flu, first brought to public attention a mere couple of weeks ago, quickly spread from its epicenter in Mexico to at least four other continents, 30 countries, and more than

score: 10

Peter Singer: Canada gets an 'A' in Pandemic-ology

National Post 27 weeks ago

authorities test virus samples. We have anti-viral stockpiles of 55 million doses, and have started to develop a vaccine. Canadian authorities could have better explained why they warned against travel to Mexico. While this seemed reasonable, it went