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When will they make the vaccine for the H1N1 flu (Swine Flu)?

Settled as Vaccine finished in September

China began mass vaccinations earlier this week.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090921/wl_asia_afp/healthfluchina_20090921115346

Background:

Background: Scientists are currently working on the vaccine for the H1N1 flu, and some predict that the vaccine will be finished in fall. However, other scientists insist that it may take longer as the flu is constantly mutating. When do you believe the vaccine will be complete?

Category Editor Clarification
In this context, 'finished' means that a H1N1 vaccine is marketed and available for public use. The vaccine may be available in any country in the world for settlement.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Vaccine finished earlier than August
0%
Vaccine finished in August
7%
Vaccine finished in September
48%
Vaccine finished in October
39%
Vaccine finished in November
4%
Vaccine finished in December
0%
Vaccine not finished in 2009
3%
Settled as Vaccine finished in September on Thu 24th Sep 3:46pm PST

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 5am PST (5 weeks to go)
Settlement date: Thu 24th Sep 3:46pm PST

Initial likelihoods: Vaccine finished earlier than August: 3%, Vaccine finished in August: 5%, Vaccine finished in September: 20%, Vaccine finished in October: 20%, Vaccine finished in November: 20%, Vaccine finished in December: 12%, Vaccine not finished in 2009: 20%

Action history:

Created Wed 6th May 9:50am PST by afoxtrotn00b
Suspended Wed 6th May 11:43am PST by kruijs[Power User]: Flagged by super user: when will this question settle "Vaccine never finished"? never?
This last option makes it impossible to settle this question.
Unsuspended Wed 6th May 1:58pm PST by tisha[Admin]: Last option has been amended to reflect the suspend date.
Suspended Thu 3rd Sep 6:48am PST by sqlman[Admin]: Suspended pending settlement
Settlement requested Thu 3rd Sep 6:48am PST by sqlman[Admin]: Not sure if it counts, but just to be safe: Chinese manufacturer Sinovac has been granted the first commercial license for an A/H1N1 vaccine.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125198466331383281.html (market suspended)
Settled as 'Vaccine finished in September' Thu 24th Sep 3:46pm PST by tisha[Admin]: China began mass vaccinations earlier this week.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090921/wl_asia_afp/healthfluchina_20090921115346

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 5am PST (5 weeks to go)
Settlement date: Thu 24th Sep 3:46pm PST details

 

Predictions (160)

13 weeks ago
freeze predicted Vaccine finished in September (H$20 at 39%)
13 weeks ago
zeebac predicted Vaccine finished in October (H$20 at 40%)
14 weeks ago
drhow predicted Vaccine finished in October (H$50 at 40%)
14 weeks ago
vex_ predicted Vaccine finished in October (H$50 at 38%)
14 weeks ago
bigken1 predicted Vaccine finished in August (H$300 at 4%)

Comments (18)

  1 kruijs[Power User]
when will this question settle "Vaccine never finished"? never?
posted 28 weeks ago
  2 tisha[Admin]
Good work @afoxtrotn00b, thanks for giving this question another go!
posted 28 weeks ago
  3 bigken1
Not sure if this means a vaccine is first made, or the Nth and last update is made? How will we know it is ever the last update? The word "finished" needs clarification. Like what the meaning of is is ( a la Bill clinton).
posted 28 weeks ago
  4 bigken1
i cashed in some of my guesses because conditions were changed.. Not sure why this needs to be done. If question is poor, why not just stop question and rewrite it properly. One always seems to lose money when these things are being done, and we are not informed...
posted 28 weeks ago
  5 kruijs[Power User]
Large-scale H1N1 vaccine production begins

French drug maker Sanofi-Aventis (SASY.PA) has begun large-scale production of a vaccine for the H1N1 swine flu at its facilities in the United States and France, the company said on Thursday.

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssHealthcareNews/idUSN2529731620090625
posted 19 weeks ago
  11 sqlman[Admin]
07/23 Leaderboard (and I'm sure it's only partial, but it's what I've found):

--Glaxo SmithKline is producing a vaccine in Germany and Canada, but has not started human trials.
--Sanofi-Aventis is producing a vaccine in France and the United States, and has not started human trials.
--CSL and Vaxine--both in Australia--have started human trials in that country, making Australia the first nation to start them. Both trials are expected to take "weeks or months" (and Vaxine's synthetic vaccine, "may not even be effective" according to the company).
--Sanofi-Aventis, Novartis, Baxter, GlaxoSmithKline, Solvay and AstraZeneca's MedImmune subsidiary have finished making seasonal flu vaccines for this year...but those don't count.
posted 17 weeks ago
  12 frogchop
Admin, please clarify:

I get the "In this context, 'finished' means that a H1N1 vaccine is marketed and available for public use." But what public are we talking about? What if France approves it for use and distributes it in October, but the US FDA demands more testing be completed before release in the US and it doesn't become publicly available until December?
posted 17 weeks ago
  14 lola
Novartis starts testing its swine flu vaccine

August 5, 2009 | Associated Press

Swiss drugmaker Novartis says it has begun injecting its swine flu vaccine into people for its first human tests. Novartis spokesman Eric Althoff says a person in Britain became the first person to get its swine flu vaccine about 10 days ago. The vaccine is being tested in a yearlong trial in about 6,000 people in Britain, Germany and the United States. Althoff said the vaccine will likely be on the market before the trial finishes.

European and U.S. regulators have a fast-track approval process for swine flu vaccines that will allow them to be sold before extensive safety data are available.

http://www.mercurynews.com/twitter/ci_12995906?source=rss
posted 15 weeks ago
  15 sqlman[Admin]
"...U.S. regulators have a fast-track approval process for swine flu vaccines that will allow them to be sold before extensive safety data are available. "

Gee, that's not scary. IOW, because there's so much money at stake for whoever completes a vaccine first--tens of billions of dollars--every Big Pharma company wants to be at the head of the line. And now with the 'fast-track' approval process and the US Government granting full immunity against civil and/or criminal liability in the event someone screws up and releases a vaccine that's worse than the disease it's intended to permit, the winner stands to win big. very, very, big.

Tell your stockbroker to buy GlaxoSmithKline today!!!

:-|
posted 15 weeks ago
  16 frogchop
Are we setting ourselves up like the 1970s swine flu vaccine nightmare all over again or what!?!
posted 15 weeks ago
  17 pics4d
a chinese company's vaccine was approved for use today...the first vaccine to go thru trials and be approved
posted 11 weeks ago

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