
When will they make the vaccine for the H1N1 flu (Swine Flu)?
China began mass vaccinations earlier this week.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090921/wl_asia_afp/healthfluchina_20090921115346
Background:>
Category Editor Clarification
In this context, 'finished' means that a H1N1 vaccine is marketed and available for public use. The vaccine may be available in any country in the world for settlement.
Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.
| Vaccine finished earlier than August |
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| Vaccine finished in August |
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| Vaccine finished in September |
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| Vaccine finished in October |
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| Vaccine finished in November |
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| Vaccine finished in December |
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| Vaccine not finished in 2009 |
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- Activity: H$66,747 |
- Predictions: 160 |
Comments: 18
Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 5am PST (5 weeks to go)
Settlement date: Thu 24th Sep 3:46pm PST
Initial likelihoods: Vaccine finished earlier than August: 3%, Vaccine finished in August: 5%, Vaccine finished in September: 20%, Vaccine finished in October: 20%, Vaccine finished in November: 20%, Vaccine finished in December: 12%, Vaccine not finished in 2009: 20%
Action history:
This last option makes it impossible to settle this question.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125198466331383281.html (market suspended)
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090921/wl_asia_afp/healthfluchina_20090921115346
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090922/hl_nm/us_flu_china_1
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090921/wl_asia_afp/healthfluchina_20090921115346
Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 5am PST (5 weeks to go)
Settlement date: Thu 24th Sep 3:46pm PST details
Predictions (160)
Comments (18)
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French drug maker Sanofi-Aventis (SASY.PA) has begun large-scale production of a vaccine for the H1N1 swine flu at its facilities in the United States and France, the company said on Thursday.
http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssHealthcareNews/idUSN2529731620090625
Not until December...wow
--Glaxo SmithKline is producing a vaccine in Germany and Canada, but has not started human trials.
--Sanofi-Aventis is producing a vaccine in France and the United States, and has not started human trials.
--CSL and Vaxine--both in Australia--have started human trials in that country, making Australia the first nation to start them. Both trials are expected to take "weeks or months" (and Vaxine's synthetic vaccine, "may not even be effective" according to the company).
--Sanofi-Aventis, Novartis, Baxter, GlaxoSmithKline, Solvay and AstraZeneca's MedImmune subsidiary have finished making seasonal flu vaccines for this year...but those don't count.
I get the "In this context, 'finished' means that a H1N1 vaccine is marketed and available for public use." But what public are we talking about? What if France approves it for use and distributes it in October, but the US FDA demands more testing be completed before release in the US and it doesn't become publicly available until December?
August 5, 2009 | Associated Press
Swiss drugmaker Novartis says it has begun injecting its swine flu vaccine into people for its first human tests. Novartis spokesman Eric Althoff says a person in Britain became the first person to get its swine flu vaccine about 10 days ago. The vaccine is being tested in a yearlong trial in about 6,000 people in Britain, Germany and the United States. Althoff said the vaccine will likely be on the market before the trial finishes.
European and U.S. regulators have a fast-track approval process for swine flu vaccines that will allow them to be sold before extensive safety data are available.
http://www.mercurynews.com/twitter/ci_12995906?source=rss
Gee, that's not scary. IOW, because there's so much money at stake for whoever completes a vaccine first--tens of billions of dollars--every Big Pharma company wants to be at the head of the line. And now with the 'fast-track' approval process and the US Government granting full immunity against civil and/or criminal liability in the event someone screws up and releases a vaccine that's worse than the disease it's intended to permit, the winner stands to win big. very, very, big.
Tell your stockbroker to buy GlaxoSmithKline today!!!
:-|
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090921/wl_asia_afp/healthfluchina_20090921115346
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090922/hl_nm/us_flu_china_1
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