Created Thu 14th May 1:53am PST by

How many Hubdubbers will be promoted to Oracle (have H$ 500,000 or more) by July 15, 2009?

Settled as 37 to 39

Background: As I write this, HubDub has 115 Prophets = players with with >H$ 100,000, 62 Seers - players with >250,000 and 31 Oracles with H$ 500,000 or more. Nine players are within striking distance with at least H$ 400,000. How many players will reach H$ 500,000 or more at 12:00 noon on July 15, 2009? Remember that you can lose as well as gain points in this game! The question will suspend 1 week before, on July 8th.

Category Editor Clarification - stlj9174 has been suspended for suspicious activity, and his account will not be counted for the purposes of settlement for this question

Settlement details:As per All Time Net Worth Leader Board on July 15, 2009 at 12 noon
http://www.hubdub.com/p/Leaders?page=2

Forecast history %

30 or less

31 to 33

34 to 36

37 to 39

57%

40 to 42

40%

43 or more

Settled as 37 to 39 on Wed 15th Jul 11:22am PST

Activity: H$112,068
Predictions: 274
Comments: 18

Suspend date: Wed 8th Jul 9am PST
Settlement date: Wed 15th Jul 11:22am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 8th Jul 9am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: 30 or less: 10%, 31 to 33: 15%, 34 to 36: 25%, 37 to 39: 25%, 40 to 42: 15%, 43 or more: 10%

Action history:

Created Thu 14th May 1:53am PST by

tuff_sledding [Power User]

Changed Description Mon 29th Jun 2:41am PST by

tisha

: show details

... 115 Prophets = players with with >>H$ 100,000, 62 Seers - players with >>250,000 and 31 Oracles ... week before, on July 8th..<br/> <br/> <b>Category Editor Clarification - stlj9174 has been suspended for suspicious activity, and his account will not be counted for the purposes of settlement for this question</b>

Suspended Wed 8th Jul 9am PST : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Wed 15th Jul 9:16am PST by

tuff_sledding [Power User]

: The winner is 37 to 39
There were 38 Oracles at noon today (and yesterday, and the day before). not much change lately...
thanks

Settled as '37 to 39' Wed 15th Jul 11:22am PST by

nigeleccles [Admin]

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Predictions (274)

19 weeks ago

pita_soup Level 13, Psychic (H$60,901)

predicted 37 to 39 (H$100 at 86%)

19 weeks ago

mungo10 Level 14, Prophet (H$243,504)

predicted 43 or more (H$30 at 2%)

19 weeks ago

mungo10 Level 14, Prophet (H$243,504)

predicted 40 to 42 (H$50 at 11%)

19 weeks ago

swamee Level 10, Genius (H$14,215)

predicted 40 to 42 (H$20 at 10%)

19 weeks ago

hect0r Level 11, Legend (H$18,577)

predicted 40 to 42 (H$20 at 10%)

Comments (18)

curios

Sorry mate but i find these not fair you. (ask promoted) when the are a fair few not paricipating now, can you explain please

posted 26 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

@curios: I'm sorry, but I don't get your question. Could you please rephrase it?

posted 26 weeks ago

lachcorp Level 13, Psychic (H$53,662)

There's 35 as of today

posted 22 weeks ago

brian72975 Level 15, Seer (H$424,167)

If you're betting on me, don't.

posted 22 weeks ago

drzinternet Level 16, Oracle (H$719,271)

"Sorry mate but i find these not fair you. (ask promoted) when the are a fair few not paricipating now, can you explain please "

Does anyone know what that means? Is it Martian or something?

posted 22 weeks ago

kruijs [Power User]

AFAIK it's Australian. I occasionally understand it. often it helps when you play around with punctuation within the sentence

Sorry mate, but i find these not fair.
~~you. (ask promoted)~~
when there are a fair few not participating now,
can you explain please?

(sorry, curios, no offense meant.)

I guess he thinks this question is unfair because there are people on the leaderboards which are inactive. therefor, it seems difficult to separate those from the actual candidates.

he asks for an explanation, a statement. I'm just not sure from whom: tuff, or cated?

posted 22 weeks ago

tisha

eh hem - not to offend anyone either, but not all australian comes off so unintelligbly ...

posted 22 weeks ago

kruijs [Power User]

but not all aAustralians comes off so unintelligibly

nice try :-P

posted 22 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

At the risk of stating the obvious, the total number who have reached Oracle status is what the market asks. The fact that some players are more active than others and some may no longer be active at all does not, in my view, make it unfair. The leaderboard as it stands on July 15, 2009 at 12 noon is the sole criterion for settlement, as far as I am concerned.

posted 22 weeks ago

kruijs [Power User]

I agree, this is obvious.

posted 22 weeks ago

drzinternet Level 16, Oracle (H$719,271)

At number 39, with 480,000, I can go either way. I guess it will depend upon my position here as to where I am on Jul 15.

posted 21 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

Things were obvious (as per my above comment) until this phantom player stlj9174 came out of nowhere, skyrocketed to over 1.3 mil in a few days and then flamed out, or more precisely was snuffed out, because there clearly was some sort of irregularity, hacking or cheating going on.
The trouble is, he still appears on the leaderboard. So, until he is somehow removed, we need a ruling about what to do about this non-player. As far as I am concerned, he should not be counted, but I have no control over how this is settled. Admin's we need some help here!

posted 21 weeks ago

tisha

stlj9174 has been suspended for suspicious activity, and his account will not be counted for the purposes of settlement for this question

posted 20 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

Thanks tisha!

posted 20 weeks ago

philphan1 Level 12, Guru (H$31,051)

In response to #8, which was in response to #7, I am lmao!

posted 20 weeks ago

hfl13

38 (+7) Go bayou & drz !

posted 19 weeks ago

pitchedoutsideleg Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,587,399)

Who is Imao?

posted 19 weeks ago

kruijs [Power User]

@pitchedoutsideleg, it's philphan1 (see #15)

But I guess he/she wanted to say is more what he/she is doing rather than what/who he/she is.

English is such an imprecise language.

posted 19 weeks ago

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