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Which Idol will sell the most records this year?

Background: Sure its great to win the competition, but what really matters is what happens afterwards. Some winners have gone on to great fame and fortune (Kelly Clarkson, Carrie Underwood, David Cook) while others have fallen into obscurity and lost their recording contracts (Taylor Hicks, Ruben Studdard). But losing American Idol doesn't mean you'll lose in the fame and fortune arena either (Chris Daughtry, Clay Aiken). Who will be this season's *Real* winner? Some good background info and data from past contestants available here

Settlement details:Its hard to get at total sales figures. If we can find access to Billboard 200 figures from Soundscan like: http://globalgrind.com/source/hhboard.ihiphop.com/656282/album-sales-billboard-top-200-soundscan-plus-camrons-next-week/ will settle on highest total album sales (last column). Otherwise we'll depend on the RIAA certifications available here: http://www.billboard.com/bbcom/riaa/index.jsp

Settlement date is Season 9 finale.

 
Forecast history %
Adam Lambert
91%
Kris Allen
3%
Danny Gokey
3%
Allison Iraheta
2%
Another Season 8 Alum
2%
Question suspends in 7 weeks

Suspend date: Fri 14th May 11:59pm PST (7 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Adam Lambert: 35%, Kris Allen: 35%, Danny Gokey: 10%, Allison Iraheta: 15%, Another Season 8 Alum: 5%

Action history:

Created Thu 14th May 2009 8:33am PST by jenniandboys[Admin]
Suspended Wed 25th Nov 2009 2:57am PST by jenniandboys[Admin]
Unsuspended Tue 1st Dec 2009 5pm PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: Sorry, at first glance thought this market settled on first week sales, not the first year. Market is being reopened.

Suspend date: Fri 14th May 11:59pm PST (7 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (114)

1 week ago
smcdoo predicted Kris Allen (H$1,000 at 82%)
1 week ago
hfischer predicted Kris Allen (H$1,000 at 78%)
1 week ago
dallen predicted Kris Allen (H$1,000 at 73%)
1 week ago
pngmangi predicted Kris Allen (H$6,000 at 23%)
8 weeks ago
mikehoncho predicted Kris Allen (H$50 at 1%)

Comments (3)

  1 johnoday
i lost soo much fake money!!!
posted 43 weeks ago
  2 jbreed
Why was this question suspended on Nov 25th instead of waiting until May?
posted 15 weeks ago
Whoops, thought this was one of the "first week" questions. Can reopen for now.
posted 15 weeks ago

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