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Which Idol will sell the most records this year?

Background: Sure its great to win the competition, but what really matters is what happens afterwards. Some winners have gone on to great fame and fortune (Kelly Clarkson, Carrie Underwood, David Cook) while others have fallen into obscurity and lost their recording contracts (Taylor Hicks, Ruben Studdard). But losing American Idol doesn't mean you'll lose in the fame and fortune arena either (Chris Daughtry, Clay Aiken). Who will be this season's *Real* winner? Some good background info and data from past contestants available here

Settlement details:Its hard to get at total sales figures. If we can find access to Billboard 200 figures from Soundscan like: http://globalgrind.com/source/hhboard.ihiphop.com/656282/album-sales-billboard-top-200-soundscan-plus-camrons-next-week/ will settle on highest total album sales (last column). Otherwise we'll depend on the RIAA certifications available here: http://www.billboard.com/bbcom/riaa/index.jsp

Settlement date is Season 9 finale.

 
Forecast history %
Adam Lambert
82%
Kris Allen
8%
Danny Gokey
5%
Allison Iraheta
2%
Another Season 8 Alum
3%
Question suspends in 24 weeks

Suspend date: Fri 14th May 2010 11:59pm PST (24 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Adam Lambert: 35%, Kris Allen: 35%, Danny Gokey: 10%, Allison Iraheta: 15%, Another Season 8 Alum: 5%

Action history:

Created Thu 14th May 8:33am PST by jenniandboys[Admin]

Suspend date: Fri 14th May 2010 11:59pm PST (24 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (105)

2 weeks ago
donnamil predicted Adam Lambert (H$5,000 at 72%)
7 weeks ago
jenniandboys[Admin] predicted Adam Lambert (H$1,000 at 55%)
15 weeks ago
djeter2 predicted Adam Lambert (H$50 at 46%)
22 weeks ago
clunger predicted Adam Lambert (H$100 at 48%)
23 weeks ago
philculp predicted Adam Lambert (H$350 at 46%)

Comments (1)

  1 johnoday
i lost soo much fake money!!!
posted 26 weeks ago

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