Created Sat 16th May 11:25am PST by

bigken1 Level 15, Seer (H$358,666)

Will another flu strain (other than A/H1N1 Swine flu) develop and spread in 2009?

Background: Every cloud has a silver lining, it is said.

Like all living entities, flu lives in a certain niche. Swine, A/H1N1, flu helps fill a niche. As a consequence, this may leave less room for another flu strain to develop (unless the human species is so weakened that this allows other flu strains more room to live).

The question is, as a result of Swine flu, will another winter/annual flu strain be suppressed or will another annual flu develop and spread? Question can be settled either by report of WHO, or CDC as to another flu strain or statement that another does not seem to be developing. If no other annual flu develops and nothing is announced by suspend date, settles as NO .

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

Yes

10%

90%

Question suspends in 5 weeks

Activity: H$68,681
Predictions: 116
Comments: 5

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 30%

Action history:

Created Sat 16th May 11:25am PST by

bigken1 Level 15, Seer (H$358,666)

Settlement requested Thu 15th Oct 3:26am PST by

bigken1 Level 15, Seer (H$358,666)

: This CDC site http://www.cdc.gov/flu/
says:"Flu activity is increasing in the
United States with most states reporting widespread influenza activity. So far, most flu is 2009 H1N1 flu (sometimes called "swine flu"). CDC expects both 2009 H1N1 flu and seasonal flu to cause illness, hospital stays and deaths this season. CDC has recommendations on who should get vaccinated against seasonal flu and 2009 H1N1 flu."

Settlement requested Sat 7th Nov 5:26am PST by

bigken1 Level 15, Seer (H$358,666)

: Hadn't been checking, but saw this article:
http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/2009/11/06/20091106WHOSwineFlu1106.html
It says that only recently has swine flu surpassed the others, meaning THEY have not been overwhelmed by swine flu -- it is spreading normally, unaffected by swine flu's additional stress.

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Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go) details

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Predictions (116)

3 days ago

bernardo Level 14, Prophet (H$249,179)

predicted Yes (H$100 at 10%)

1 week ago

bigken1 Level 15, Seer (H$358,666)

predicted Yes (H$20 at 21%)

1 week ago

bigken1 Level 15, Seer (H$358,666)

predicted Yes (H$50 at 20%)

1 week ago

bigken1 Level 15, Seer (H$358,666)

predicted Yes (H$100 at 33%)

2 weeks ago

craig814 Level 11, Legend (H$19,214)

predicted No (H$100 at 67%)

Comments (5)

bigken1 Level 15, Seer (H$358,666)

This question really tests whether HD users can think for themselves.. The question is not generally discussed in newspapers or websites.. I see that few HD can think for themselves, or else this question is
just lame -- surely NOT one of mine.

posted 26 weeks ago

bigken1 Level 15, Seer (H$358,666)

Ahh, getting more respect. I see HDers have not gone one way or another. That IS a good sign. My objections about thinking for themselves, really refers to congress people, who for the most part, vote strictly along party lines -- so they go 99% in one direction (depending on their party)..This question is now at 50-50 , so there is no lemming behavior.GREAT

posted 16 weeks ago

jeopardy Level 13, Psychic (H$76,764)

Could you clarify what is meant by "develop"? Will the question be answered "Yes" only if there is a new (that is, not currently in existence) strain that will evolve to compete with (A)H1N1? Or will the question be answered "Yes" if a flu strain that is currently in existence (but is limited in geographic scope) spreads as an epidemic/pandemic? It appears that the question intends the former meaning of "develop," but I did want to make sure.

posted 16 weeks ago

bigken1 Level 15, Seer (H$358,666)

Hi jeopardy,
To me, the phrasing develop and spread, simply meant to imply that would grow and spread; it might not reach as large a following as swine flu, and might be more like a seasonal flu, which develops each year (but is not necessarily a new strain per se).
That is how i developed the question. What HD does, however, is up to them, and although I found this section of HD reasonable, some are not so standard, or overstressed, etc.

good luck, ken

posted 11 weeks ago