Created Sat 16th May 2009 11:25am PST by

bigken1 Level 15, Seer (H$390,645)

Will another flu strain (other than A/H1N1 Swine flu) develop and spread in 2009?

Settled as No

Didn't happen...

Background:

Background: Every cloud has a silver lining, it is said.

Like all living entities, flu lives in a certain niche. Swine, A/H1N1, flu helps fill a niche. As a consequence, this may leave less room for another flu strain to develop (unless the human species is so weakened that this allows other flu strains more room to live).

The question is, as a result of Swine flu, will another winter/annual flu strain be suppressed or will another annual flu develop and spread? Question can be settled either by report of WHO, or CDC as to another flu strain or statement that another does not seem to be developing. If no other annual flu develops and nothing is announced by suspend date, settles as NO .

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

Yes

96%

Settled as No on Sat 2nd Jan 9:49am PST

Activity: H$101,480
Predictions: 123
Comments: 5

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sat 2nd Jan 9:49am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 31st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 30%

Action history:

Created Sat 16th May 2009 11:25am PST by

bigken1 Level 15, Seer (H$390,645)

Settlement requested Thu 15th Oct 2009 3:26am PST by

bigken1 Level 15, Seer (H$390,645)

: This CDC site http://www.cdc.gov/flu/
says:"Flu activity is increasing in the
United States with most states reporting widespread influenza activity. So far, most flu is 2009 H1N1 flu (sometimes called "swine flu"). CDC expects both 2009 H1N1 flu and seasonal flu to cause illness, hospital stays and deaths this season. CDC has recommendations on who should get vaccinated against seasonal flu and 2009 H1N1 flu."

Settlement requested Sat 7th Nov 2009 5:26am PST by

bigken1 Level 15, Seer (H$390,645)

: Hadn't been checking, but saw this article:
http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/2009/11/06/20091106WHOSwineFlu1106.html
It says that only recently has swine flu surpassed the others, meaning THEY have not been overwhelmed by swine flu -- it is spreading normally, unaffected by swine flu's additional stress.

Suspended Thu 31st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Fri 1st Jan 2pm PST by

elly

: No such reports.

Settled as 'No' Sat 2nd Jan 9:49am PST by

sqlman [Admin]

: Didn't happen...

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Predictions (123)

12 weeks ago

cheesenips Level 16, Oracle (H$729,971)

predicted No (H$10,000 at 91%)

12 weeks ago

cheesenips Level 16, Oracle (H$729,971)

predicted No (H$5,000 at 87%)

12 weeks ago

snipergirl Level 7, Pro (H$4,623)

predicted No (H$100 at 86%)

15 weeks ago

bigken1 Level 15, Seer (H$390,645)

predicted Yes (H$20 at 14%)

15 weeks ago

bigken1 Level 15, Seer (H$390,645)

predicted Yes (H$100 at 14%)

Comments (5)

bigken1 Level 15, Seer (H$390,645)

This question really tests whether HD users can think for themselves.. The question is not generally discussed in newspapers or websites.. I see that few HD can think for themselves, or else this question is
just lame -- surely NOT one of mine.

posted 43 weeks ago

bigken1 Level 15, Seer (H$390,645)

Ahh, getting more respect. I see HDers have not gone one way or another. That IS a good sign. My objections about thinking for themselves, really refers to congress people, who for the most part, vote strictly along party lines -- so they go 99% in one direction (depending on their party)..This question is now at 50-50 , so there is no lemming behavior.GREAT

posted 33 weeks ago

jeopardy Level 13, Psychic (H$86,749)

Could you clarify what is meant by "develop"? Will the question be answered "Yes" only if there is a new (that is, not currently in existence) strain that will evolve to compete with (A)H1N1? Or will the question be answered "Yes" if a flu strain that is currently in existence (but is limited in geographic scope) spreads as an epidemic/pandemic? It appears that the question intends the former meaning of "develop," but I did want to make sure.

posted 33 weeks ago

bigken1 Level 15, Seer (H$390,645)

Hi jeopardy,
To me, the phrasing develop and spread, simply meant to imply that would grow and spread; it might not reach as large a following as swine flu, and might be more like a seasonal flu, which develops each year (but is not necessarily a new strain per se).
That is how i developed the question. What HD does, however, is up to them, and although I found this section of HD reasonable, some are not so standard, or overstressed, etc.

good luck, ken

posted 28 weeks ago