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Will President Obama be caught smoking?

Background: President Barack Obama used to smoke, but quit before heading out on the campaign trail. But he's got a stressful job, and the urge to light up must be overwhelming. Will he be overwhelmed? To settle as yes, there must be an admission of the slip-up by the president or one of his spokespeople.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
13%
No
87%
Settled as Yes on Sat 4th Jul 12:18pm PST

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (7 weeks to go)
Settlement date: Sat 4th Jul 12:18pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 23rd Jun 9:20am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 10%

Action history:

Created Thu 21st May 6:08pm PST by loren

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (7 weeks to go)
Settlement date: Sat 4th Jul 12:18pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 23rd Jun 9:20am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (21)

20 weeks ago
youbet predicted Yes (H$100 at 13%)
23 weeks ago
tarpash predicted No (H$3,000 at 86%)
23 weeks ago
richajer3 predicted Yes (H$100 at 15%)
24 weeks ago
paddy112 predicted No (H$100 at 86%)
24 weeks ago
blacksoapman predicted Yes (H$5 at 14%)

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