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Will any Gitmo detainee escape?

Settled as No

Background: To qualify as a successful escape, the individual needs to get out of detention in Guantanamo Bay, be identified as alive and no longer in US custody, be acknowledged as having escaped by the US government, and remain at large for at least five days. The question will settle as "yes" after the fifth day of an escape. Will settle as "no" if all detainees are where they belong by the suspend date.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
1%
No
99%
Settled as No on Tue 6th Oct 7:28am PST

Suspend date: Wed 30th Sep 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Tue 6th Oct 7:28am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 30th Sep 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 10%

Action history:

Created Thu 21st May 6:39pm PST by loren
Suspended Wed 30th Sep 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Mon 5th Oct 9:15pm PST by drzinternet: NO
Settled as 'No' Tue 6th Oct 7:28am PST by destry[Admin]

Suspend date: Wed 30th Sep 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Tue 6th Oct 7:28am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 30th Sep 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (21)

12 weeks ago
frogchop predicted No (H$5,000 at 94%)
25 weeks ago
hemantkpatel predicted No (H$100 at 93%)
25 weeks ago
tarpash predicted No (H$4,000 at 92%)
25 weeks ago
john_kahl predicted No (H$100 at 92%)
26 weeks ago
kruijs[Power User] predicted No (H$1,000 at 92%)

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