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Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?

Background: The question's suspend date may be moved according to when there is a leader change.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
William Hague
17%
George Osbourne
19%
Liam Fox
5%
Michael Gove
4%
Ken Clarke
2%
Boris Johnson
15%
David Davis
2%
Zac Goldsmith
2%
Andrew Lansley
3%
Other
31%
Question suspends in 2 years

Suspend date: Sat 31st Dec 2011 7:59am PST (2 years to go)

Initial likelihoods: William Hague: 20%, George Osbourne: 17%, Liam Fox: 6%, Michael Gove: 5%, Ken Clarke: 1%, Boris Johnson: 17%, David Davis: 2%, Zac Goldsmith: 2%, Andrew Lansley: 3%, Other: 27%

Action history:

Created Sun 24th May 5:12pm PST by robr

Suspend date: Sat 31st Dec 2011 7:59am PST (2 years to go) details

 

Predictions (17)

2 weeks ago
corbelle predicted Boris Johnson (H$50 at 16%)
6 weeks ago
harlech predicted Other (H$100 at 30%)
6 weeks ago
harlech predicted George Osbourne (H$100 at 18%)
8 weeks ago
harlech predicted George Osbourne (H$100 at 3%)
9 weeks ago
orcaceros predicted George Osbourne (H$100 at 17%)

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