Will More than 75 US banks fail in 2009?

The pace is picking up--5 and 7 banks failed in the last two weeks.

Here's a link to an article that projects 125 bank failures this year:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/146973-bank-failures-forecast-to-increase-this-year#comment-574317

http://www.thedeal.com/dealscape/2009/07/seven_banks_fail_brining_total.php

52 so far

Total now is up to 55. http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html

It will now require an average of only one closing per week for the remainder of the year to exceed 75 total. The rate so far is nearly twice that.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/07/18/regulators-shut-banks-in-_1_n_239341.html

57

57

With 6 closures in Georgia and 1 in New York on 7/24, the total is up to 64 for the year. At that rate the annual total would be 110.

bad news for commercial banks too

67

69 as of 7/31. Soon "75" will be moot.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=a3KVKk_i5_cM

PS: The rate for July is well over 4 per week. The rate will continue to rise, I think. A rate of 5 per week thru the end of the year (22 weeks) would add about 110 more banks and beat the 175 target.

The target is 125.

The rate so far for the year is 9.8 banks per month. It should rise to 12 per month for the remaining of the year to beat the 125 target. This is very probable to happen but it's not a done deal yet.
However 24 banks in July is impressive.

"The target is 125"
Right you are. (And I was the person who posted this question!) I may have to post another question, with 75 removed and 175 added, in a couple of months, if the total passes 100 and it looks like 125 will be a slam-dunk.

"1 Month, 24 Bank Failures: Random Event or Wilting Economy?":

http://seekingalpha.com/article/153105-1-month-24-bank-failures-random-event-or-wilting-economy

"'Too Big to Fail' Cause of Current Community Bank Failures":

http://seekingalpha.com/article/153147-too-big-to-fail-cause-of-current-community-bank-failures

+ 2 today in Florida = 71. Perhaps thing are slowing down a bit now from some of the earlier consolidation.

+1 in Oregon = 72. (The FDIC sometimes doesn't announce all of the week's failures at once.)

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.f38b0e1c4fdfbbcd3b05f0df0c61ca74.a1&show_article=1&catnum=1

72

Colonial Bank in many states may be taken over by the FDIC

74 (including Colonial Bank, the largest this year)

Running list of failed banks:
http://portalseven.com/servlets/Finance?action=finFailedBanks&selectedTimePeriod=6

Update for this weekend: now at 77, so the first option (75) in this question is out of the running.

There are 77 failures as of today as rogerkni pointed out. In addition the FDIC just said they have a list of 305 additional banks in trouble, whether they will fail by the end of the year is not yet known.

The list of 305 banks was established in the first quarter of this year. Realize most of the 77 closed so far were counted in that original 305 number.

I've created a new question on bank failures with higher targets (175 & 225), because it's looking like 125 is in the bank. Here:
http://www.hubdub.com/m50403/Will_more_than_175_US_banks_fail_in_2009

Incidentally, Bloomberg has an article claiming that 200 banks may fail this year, here:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aTTT9jivRIWE

And Tom Lindmark has an article critiquing the Bloomberg article, here:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/156386-bloomberg-s-sketchy-report-on-potential-bank-failures

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/8/18/768919/-The-FDIC-is-Broke

guess we will print more money

No bank closures today... is the FDIC on vacation like Congress?

81 as of Aug. 21:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aXFBqolG0LWc

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2009/08/28/business/AP-US-Bank-Closures.html?_r=1

84

With 2/3 of the year complete, we're a bit more than 2/3 of the way to 125. With the rate of failure rising, it looks like a cinch we'll get there.

As of Sept. 4, four more, in IA, MO, and IL (2): total 88.

Oops--one more: 89th in AZ

92 with the 3 this week

94 with only 2 this w/e. Pace is slowing down now, as I anticipated. The economy is starting to look better and although the foreclosure rate and unemployment will remain high, it is likely that the weakest players have been weeded out by now. It may be close, but at the current rate, we should fall just short of 125.

95 with only one this w/e, only 3 the last 2 w/e combined and down to 11 in Sept. So, we have 3 months to go. This should be interesting.

97

@ cool: I just counted 3 times on the official website given above, and I keep getting 95. Where do you get 97?

3 more banks closed today

I only count 98 as of today. Is that right?

98 is correct and the last three have actually been announced on Friday, Oct. 2

Thanks bgrigore.

Total remains at 98, it seems they took the w/e off, no failures reported, as of Sunday morning.

http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSTRE59B55U20091012

there could be many more

Could happen. Or not. Time will tell. In the meantime, only one this past w/e, total is 99

http://money.cnn.com/2009/10/23/news/economy/bank_failure/index.htm

106

This was #106. Just added this for references purposes to make it easier to keep track of.

First DuPage Bank Westmont IL 35038 October 23, 2009 October 27, 2009

#115

North Houston Bank Houston TX 18776 October 30, 2009 October 30, 2009

#120

United Commercial Bank San Francisco CA 32469 November 6, 2009 November 6, 2009

I don't know what it's like in your neighborhoods while you guys are counting to 125. In mine, I know people just walking away from their home mortgages, and car loans. Just deciding they don't feel like paying for them anymore. I'm talking about employed people. This is scary.

I'm one of the lucky ones, my mortgage is paid (did have to go through 3 mortgages to make it) on my $23,000 house, and I do not have a car loan on my 1993 Chevy Cavalier.

#123

Pacific Coast National Bank San Clemente CA 57914 November 13, 2009 November 13, 2009