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Will the armistice agreement between N & S Korea be broken in 2009?

Background: Background: SEOUL, South Korea (CNN) — South Korea formally announced Tuesday that it would join a U.S.-led effort to crack down on trafficking in weapons of mass destruction in response to North Korea’s new test of a nuclear bomb.

South Korean President Lee Myung-bak’s government said it would join the 6-year-old Proliferation Security Initiative because of “the grave threat WMD and missile proliferation is posing to global peace,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Moon Tae-young said.

The effort is aimed at interdicting shipments of weapons technology, a rare source of hard currency for North Korea, but Moon said the south would continue to uphold a shipping agreement with the north.

North Korea previously had protested any move by South Korea to join the initiative. There was no immediate response to Tuesday’s declaration, but North Korea’s state-run news agency said in April that any effort to join the initiative would be regarded as “a declaration of war.”

with the new nuclear and missile tests, the pressure is ratcheting up on the peninsula...will either country "declare war" on the other?
i know...technically, they are still at war since there was no peace treaty, but i assume they would still declare war or a re-commencement of hostilities since that is what they say in the report above...

settlement requirements(only 1 must take place): any sustained fighting lasting more than 1 day, a "declaration of war" by either country's president(or other head of state), a "re-commencement of hostilities" as stated by either country or the media, a major news source stating the countries are actively at war, any invasion by one country into the other, any bombing missions by either country where bombs are actually dropped, any naval bombardment....any of these happening will result in a YES settlement, anything else is a NO....hopefully i haven't missed anything

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
4%
No
96%
Question suspends in 5 weeks

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 7:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 25%

Action history:

Created Tue 26th May 12:49pm PST by pics4d
Changed Question text Mon 1st Jun 4:14am PST by ryanj: ... willWill the armistice agreement between N
Settlement requested Wed 11th Nov 12:35am PST by hoernla: Good question? Does the naval incident suffice?

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 7:59pm PST (5 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (101)

6 days ago
tpcrt1 predicted No (H$20 at 97%)
1 week ago
hoernla predicted No (H$6,600 at 92%)
1 week ago
hoernla predicted Yes (H$3,000 at 21%)
1 week ago
hoernla predicted Yes (H$299 at 15%)
1 week ago
hoernla predicted Yes (H$5,500 at 21%)

Comments (6)

  1 randburg
I take it this question is different to the one that asks if any kind of military projectile will be fired or hurled from one country to the next in the Koreas...
posted 25 weeks ago
  2 pics4d
yes, as it includes more than just a projectile, or less if they simply declare war and don't happen to do anything else...plus as they often have cross-border shots fired i don't see how the other Q hasn't been voided....
posted 25 weeks ago
  3 pics4d
plus, while there have been shots fired from each side of the border, they still have never went back to war and it's entirely possible that there will again be isolated incidents occur while not actually devolving into war
posted 25 weeks ago
  4 Erik
SEOUL, South Korea - A badly damaged North Korean patrol ship retreated in flames Tuesday after a skirmish with a South Korean naval vessel along their disputed western coast, South Korean officials said...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091110/ap_on_re_as/as_koreas_naval_clash
posted 1 week ago
  5 sqlman[Admin]
This past Sunday's naval skirmish doesn't seem to satisfy the terms of settlement here:

1) any sustained fighting lasting more than 1 day: NO;
2) a "declaration of war" by either country's president(or other head of state): NO;
3) a "re-commencement of hostilities" as stated by either country or the media: NO;
4) a major news source stating the countries are actively at war: NO;
5) any invasion by one country into the other: NO;
6) any bombing missions by either country where bombs are actually dropped: NO;
7) any naval bombardment: NO.
posted 1 week ago
  6 koester
So just for my limited undestanding of the english language: One ship bombing another ship is not a naval bombardment?
posted 1 week ago

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