Created Fri 29th May 3:16am PST by
oppland
How many hurricanes will there be in the Atlantic in June and July?
Background: "In its initial outlook for the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June through November, NOAA’s National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center calls for a 50 percent probability of a near-normal season, a 25 percent probability of an above-normal season and a 25 percent probability of a below-normal season. Global weather patterns are imposing a greater uncertainty in the 2009 hurricane season outlook than in recent years. Forecasters say there is a 70 percent chance of having nine to 14 named storms, of which four to seven could become hurricanes, including one to three major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5)." - NOAA
NOAA National Hurricane Center:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Settlement details:As reported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
How many hurricanes will there be in the Atlantic in June and July?
0 hurricanes
1 hurricane
2 hurricanes
3 hurricanes or more
Zoom out
Forecast history %
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| 0 hurricanes | |
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| 1 hurricane | |
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| 2 hurricanes | |
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| 3 hurricanes or more | |
Settled as 0 hurricanes on Sun 2nd Aug 9:46am PST
Suspend date: Wed 15th Jul 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sun 2nd Aug 9:46am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 15th Jul 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods:
0 hurricanes : 35%, 1 hurricane: 35%, 2 hurricanes: 20%, 3 hurricanes or more: 10%
Action history:
Created Fri 29th May 3:16am PST by
oppland
Changed Question text Sun 31st May 3:26pm PST by
tisha![This user is an admin [Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif)

:
... there be in the Atlantic betweenin June and July?
Changed Suspend date Sun 31st May 3:26pm PST by
tisha![This user is an admin [Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif)

:
was: "2009-05-31 23:59:00"
Suspended Wed 15th Jul 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Thu 16th Jul 6:34pm PST by
oppland
:
I believe there were "0" hurricanes in June and July.
Settlement requested Sun 19th Jul 4:57pm PST by
tisha![This user is an admin [Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif)

:
test set req
Settlement requested Sun 2nd Aug 5:32am PST by
tuff_sledding![This user is a super user [Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif)

:
there were none.
may we settle?
thanks
Suspend date: Wed 15th Jul 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sun 2nd Aug 9:46am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 15th Jul 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details
Predictions (125)
16 weeks ago
nanotube
predicted
1 hurricane (H$20 at 30%)
16 weeks ago
donnamil
predicted
0 hurricanes (H$250 at 65%)
16 weeks ago
n1kkc
predicted
1 hurricane (H$250 at 27%)
16 weeks ago
rdeggau
predicted
2 hurricanes (H$20 at 3%)
16 weeks ago
dexxan
predicted
1 hurricane (H$50 at 23%)
Comments (23)
\\n\\r
\\n:) Please do elaborate. Your logic escapes me for some reason.
\\n\\r
\\noppland, obviously you meant \"how many hurricanes will there be in the Atlantic during June and July\"\\r
\\nthere is nothing \"between\" June and July.
\\nthere is nothing \"between\" June and July.\"\\r
\\n\\r
\\nYes there is. There is \"time\" in between June and July. However, I will concede that \"between\" is not a definite amount of time. You are correct. I should have used the preposition \"during\" thereby clearing up any confusion. I meant to say during but it\'s too late now.
\\nin the time, space, or interval that separate\\r
\\n\\r
\\nCould this definition not encompass my use of \"during\" in this particular context?
\\nSorry
\\nhttp://www.cnn.com/2005/WEATHER/08/02/hurricanes/index.html \\r
\\n\\r
\\nIt appears this article is using the same word \"between\" in the same context as I used it. What do you guys think? Just curious.
In any case, I got a bit sensitized to the issue of ambiguity this morning, because one of the Cat Eds, contended that my market that was worded: "what will......by Friday May 29" meant it had to happen before Friday - according to him/her "by" means "before". Now that's a new one on me. My dictionary says and my common sense and understanding is that "by Friday" means "no later than Friday". Am I crazy or is the Cat Ed?
So, now I spell out the exact time and date of settlement to avoid trouble.
i agree with you and tough that "by" is one of those words that cause heartburn. my memory must be failing me. i thought by march 30 always included the 30th. maybe they made a change in the rules.
2.2.10 Creating Questions
The term "by" will be considered to be exclusive of the date referenced. E.g. "Will the satellite hit earth by March 25th?" will be settled as a "Yes" if it hits prior to March 25th, and 'No' if it hits on March 25th or later. Where possible, category editors should edit 'by' to 'before', to avoid ambiguity.
In outcomes involving dates which are intended to be mutually exclusive, it is suggested that 'between' is inclusive of the dates given unless this leads to date overlap in the outcomes. Where possible, category editors should edit to 'on or between' or 'between, exclusive of' to avoid ambiguity.
We do try to state the bleeding obvious where possible though, so I've edited your question title to say 'in June and July'. I've also moved out the suspend date to mid-July, which will make it easier to predict the answer, but will hopefully also be able to generate more predictions and avoid having people's money tied up for two months.
It's a bit awkward to have to refer to the rules to interpret common words like "by" and "between". So, the more clear the definition, the better, no room for interpretation or misunderstanding....
But, like I said before, I was pulling opland's leg a bit.
another article about el nino
There is one more day in July, but hurricanes do not form in a day. Absent any sign of even a wave or depression, this one is ready to settle.
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