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How many hurricanes will there be in the Atlantic in June and July?

Settled as 0 hurricanes

Background: "In its initial outlook for the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June through November, NOAA’s National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center calls for a 50 percent probability of a near-normal season, a 25 percent probability of an above-normal season and a 25 percent probability of a below-normal season. Global weather patterns are imposing a greater uncertainty in the 2009 hurricane season outlook than in recent years. Forecasters say there is a 70 percent chance of having nine to 14 named storms, of which four to seven could become hurricanes, including one to three major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5)." - NOAA

NOAA National Hurricane Center:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Settlement details:As reported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

 
Forecast history %
0 hurricanes
66%
1 hurricane
30%
2 hurricanes
3%
3 hurricanes or more
2%
Settled as 0 hurricanes on Sun 2nd Aug 9:46am PST

Suspend date: Wed 15th Jul 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sun 2nd Aug 9:46am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 15th Jul 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: 0 hurricanes : 35%, 1 hurricane: 35%, 2 hurricanes: 20%, 3 hurricanes or more: 10%

Action history:

Created Fri 29th May 3:16am PST by oppland
Changed Question text Sun 31st May 3:26pm PST by tisha[Admin]: ... there be in the Atlantic betweenin June and July?
Changed Suspend date Sun 31st May 3:26pm PST by tisha[Admin]: was: "2009-05-31 23:59:00"
Suspended Wed 15th Jul 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Thu 16th Jul 6:34pm PST by oppland: I believe there were "0" hurricanes in June and July.
Settlement requested Sun 19th Jul 4:57pm PST by tisha[Admin]: test set req
Settlement requested Sun 2nd Aug 5:32am PST by tuff_sledding[Power User]: there were none.
may we settle?
thanks
Settled as '0 hurricanes ' Sun 2nd Aug 9:46am PST by jenniandboys[Admin]

Suspend date: Wed 15th Jul 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sun 2nd Aug 9:46am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 15th Jul 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (125)

16 weeks ago
nanotube predicted 1 hurricane (H$20 at 30%)
16 weeks ago
donnamil predicted 0 hurricanes (H$250 at 65%)
16 weeks ago
n1kkc predicted 1 hurricane (H$250 at 27%)
16 weeks ago
rdeggau predicted 2 hurricanes (H$20 at 3%)
16 weeks ago
dexxan predicted 1 hurricane (H$50 at 23%)

Comments (23)

OK, this one is easy. Since July immediately follows June, there cannot be any hurricane between them. So, we should all put 10K on option 1!!!
posted 23 weeks ago
  2 oppland
\"OK, this one is easy. Since July immediately follows June, there cannot be any hurricane between them.\"\\r
\\n\\r
\\n:) Please do elaborate. Your logic escapes me for some reason.
posted 23 weeks ago
  3 kruijs[Power User]
lol,\\r
\\n\\r
\\noppland, obviously you meant \"how many hurricanes will there be in the Atlantic during June and July\"\\r
\\nthere is nothing \"between\" June and July.
posted 23 weeks ago
Precisely! But as the question reads now, I win with 0.....
posted 23 weeks ago
  5 oppland
\"oppland, obviously you meant \"how many hurricanes will there be in the Atlantic during June and July\"\\r
\\nthere is nothing \"between\" June and July.\"\\r
\\n\\r
\\nYes there is. There is \"time\" in between June and July. However, I will concede that \"between\" is not a definite amount of time. You are correct. I should have used the preposition \"during\" thereby clearing up any confusion. I meant to say during but it\'s too late now.
posted 23 weeks ago
  6 oppland
Just for clarifications sake I looked up the definition on Merriam-Webster\'s Dictionary. Definition 2 a reads: \\r
\\nin the time, space, or interval that separate\\r
\\n\\r
\\nCould this definition not encompass my use of \"during\" in this particular context?
posted 23 weeks ago
  7 oppland
my use of \"between\"\\r
\\nSorry
posted 23 weeks ago
  8 oppland
Not to beat this dead horse to death but I found this after a little searching: \"Already, a record seven tropical storms tracked across the Atlantic between June and July.\" Used in a CNN article Friday, August 26, 2005.\\r
\\nhttp://www.cnn.com/2005/WEATHER/08/02/hurricanes/index.html \\r
\\n\\r
\\nIt appears this article is using the same word \"between\" in the same context as I used it. What do you guys think? Just curious.
posted 23 weeks ago
  9 dieseldog
oppland - after you\'ve been here awhile you\'ll understand why people can be so picky about how a question is worded. i been thinking about trying something like this to see how it goes. who will win dodgers or pirates? the score of the game was dodgers 7..pirates 5. so it should settle as the dodgers. well i say the dodgers didn\'t win the pirates lost so the question was settled wrong. so i win no matter how i wagered. :O)
posted 23 weeks ago
  10 oppland
Hello dieseldog, I understand completely. Hubdub can\'t afford to have its members creating questionably valid questions. Else they\'d be endlessly deciding disputes. For the sake of my future grammar and my own peace of mind I was curious. No offense taken whatsoever. I appreciate this type of discussion and I\'m willing to admit when I am wrong. I\'m just not sure I was in this particular case. I do concede however, that I could have worded my question a lot better and thus avoided any confusion to begin with. No hard feelings.
posted 23 weeks ago
Yo, oppland, my remark was a tongue-in-cheek sort of thing. It was clear enough what you meant. I did not mean to cause you any heartburn. But you do see my point, don't you? There is no time between the end of June and beginning of July, so, technically, my argument is correct, if a bit picky. Indeed, during June or July would be less ambiguous. However, I do realize that common usage makes "between" include the two ends, so to speak....
In any case, I got a bit sensitized to the issue of ambiguity this morning, because one of the Cat Eds, contended that my market that was worded: "what will......by Friday May 29" meant it had to happen before Friday - according to him/her "by" means "before". Now that's a new one on me. My dictionary says and my common sense and understanding is that "by Friday" means "no later than Friday". Am I crazy or is the Cat Ed?
So, now I spell out the exact time and date of settlement to avoid trouble.
posted 23 weeks ago
  12 oppland
No heartburn :) It really did help me understand the finality of creating a market. And it makes sense. Clear questions make for clear minds. As for your market I would have taken "by Friday 29" to mean midnight Thursday the 28th. I too will try to be very concise and clear with all my markets here on out. I'm bound to make more mistakes but...that's part of learning. Take'r easy tuff
posted 23 weeks ago
  13 dieseldog
oppland - i wouldn't worry to much about it. it's your second question and its fine by me. i agree questions have to be made so theres no confusion when it comes time to settle them. i try not to be critical when HD has newer members making questions. don't wanna see them get discouraged. lord knows my grammar ain't the best. you would think at times HD only had lawyers as members.

i agree with you and tough that "by" is one of those words that cause heartburn. my memory must be failing me. i thought by march 30 always included the 30th. maybe they made a change in the rules.
posted 23 weeks ago
  14 dieseldog
heres the rule on by and between.

2.2.10 Creating Questions

The term "by" will be considered to be exclusive of the date referenced. E.g. "Will the satellite hit earth by March 25th?" will be settled as a "Yes" if it hits prior to March 25th, and 'No' if it hits on March 25th or later. Where possible, category editors should edit 'by' to 'before', to avoid ambiguity.
In outcomes involving dates which are intended to be mutually exclusive, it is suggested that 'between' is inclusive of the dates given unless this leads to date overlap in the outcomes. Where possible, category editors should edit to 'on or between' or 'between, exclusive of' to avoid ambiguity.
posted 23 weeks ago
  15 tisha[Admin]
Sorry for coming so late to the party - this is a good question Oppland.

We do try to state the bleeding obvious where possible though, so I've edited your question title to say 'in June and July'. I've also moved out the suspend date to mid-July, which will make it easier to predict the answer, but will hopefully also be able to generate more predictions and avoid having people's money tied up for two months.
posted 22 weeks ago
Thanks tisha. Bleeding obvious is good, 'cause for folks like me whose native tongue is not English, taking terms like "between" literally can lead to misunderstandings. In some languages, the word "between" means from the end of one to the beginning of the next and does not include the ends.
It's a bit awkward to have to refer to the rules to interpret common words like "by" and "between". So, the more clear the definition, the better, no room for interpretation or misunderstanding....
But, like I said before, I was pulling opland's leg a bit.
posted 18 weeks ago
  18 oppland
Nice link coolkraft, I've known this for some time but an interesting weather phenominon is the interaction between El Ninos and La Ninas. Apparently when one strenghtens thee other weakens. So that doesn't bode well for the formation of storms in the Atlantic. It could means years of under activity storm-wise in the Atlantic. It will be interesting to see how this hurricane season's projection's from NOAA turn out. If an El Nino is , in fact, taking place in the Pacific we should see fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic basin.
posted 17 weeks ago
  19 oppland
Corrections, phenomenon was spelt incorrectly and there are no commas between "is , in fact, taking place" ;) I just analysed it.
posted 17 weeks ago
  21 oppland
Anyone notice the hurricanes in the Pacific Ocean? I think we are going to see above average hurricane activity in the Pacific this year as opposed to the Atlantic because of El Niño‎.
posted 16 weeks ago
turns out 0 was the right answer anyway....
There is one more day in July, but hurricanes do not form in a day. Absent any sign of even a wave or depression, this one is ready to settle.
posted 14 weeks ago

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