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When will North Korea launch their next missile?

Settled as June 16 or later / never / other

North Korea plans to aim a missile "toward Hawaii" in a few weeks*, but there haven't been any launches since this market was created.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iURO8fOyWVOA0ytFlaAGuC9F7R9wD98T2J2O0

* - On a personal note, I'd like to say that A) Kim Jon Il and his spawn Kim Jong Sun are likely clinically insane, and B) if North Korea were a person, the likely psychiatric evaluation would be "paranoid/schizophrenic/bipolar sociopath with borderline personality disorder combined with megalomania and a strong self-destructive streak." If I met him in a bar, I'd try to avoid him, but if he pursued his provocation, I'd drag him out to the parking lot and beat him into submission. ;-)

Background:

Background: With a spate of missile launches and various saber-rattling threats, North Korea has been on the rampage again lately. When will they next launch a missile? News background: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090529/ap_on_re_as/as_koreas_nuclear

"SEOUL, South Korea - North Korea on Friday vowed to retaliate if punitive U.N. sanctions are imposed for its latest nuclear test, and U.S. officials said there are new signs Pyongyang may be planning more long-range missile launches.

With tensions rising, the communist nation punctuated its barrage of rhetoric with yet another short-range missile launch — the sixth this week.

Perhaps more significantly, officials in Washington said there are indications of increased activity at a site used to fire long-range missiles."

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
During May
0%
June 1 - June 7
0%
June 8 - 15
1%
June 16 or later / never / other
99%
Settled as June 16 or later / never / other on Thu 18th Jun 7:18am PST

Suspend date: Tue 16th Jun 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Thu 18th Jun 7:18am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 16th Jun 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: During May: 15%, June 1 - June 7: 37%, June 8 - 15: 33%, June 16 or later / never / other: 15%

Action history:

Created Fri 29th May 12:48pm PST by raidersin09
Suspended Tue 16th Jun 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Wed 17th Jun 4:55am PST by nyharel: I didn't hear of any missiles...
Settlement requested Thu 18th Jun 5:21am PST by johnmc: No lauch so far.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,200036,00.html
Settled as 'June 16 or later / never / other' Thu 18th Jun 7:18am PST by sqlman[Admin]: North Korea plans to aim a missile "toward Hawaii" in a few weeks*, but there haven't been any launches since this market was created.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iURO8fOyWVOA0ytFlaAGuC9F7R9wD98T2J2O0

* - On a personal note, I'd like to say that A) Kim Jon Il and his spawn Kim Jong Sun are likely clinically insane, and B) if North Korea were a person, the likely psychiatric evaluation would be "paranoid/schizophrenic/bipolar sociopath with borderline personality disorder combined with megalomania and a strong self-destructive streak." If I met him in a bar, I'd try to avoid him, but if he pursued his provocation, I'd drag him out to the parking lot and beat him into submission. ;-)

Suspend date: Tue 16th Jun 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Thu 18th Jun 7:18am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 16th Jun 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (272)

22 weeks ago
undercontrol predicted June 1 - June 7 (H$5 at 0%)
22 weeks ago
undercontrol predicted June 8 - 15 (H$5 at 1%)
22 weeks ago
simonbourne predicted June 16 or later / never / other (H$601 at 99%)
22 weeks ago
carpet predicted June 16 or later / never / other (H$650 at 97%)
22 weeks ago
cjg999 predicted June 8 - 15 (H$100 at 2%)

Comments (3)

Let's all settle down people, it's not like they've invaded 2 different countries 10,000 miles away.
posted 24 weeks ago
  2 cjg999
Is this limited to the launch of the long-range missile or would it include more short-range missiles? The wording seems to indicate any launch would settle it, right?
posted 24 weeks ago
@cjg: yes, either short or long-range missile qualifies.
posted 24 weeks ago

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