Created Fri 29th May 11:36pm PST by

imantsdimants Level 14, Prophet (H$249,052)

North Korea's Kim Jong Il: Will China take him on militarily?

Background: http://breakingnews.iol.ie/news/world/us-north-korea-may-launch-new-missiles-412886.html

North Korea rattled its neighbors when it fired a short-range missile off its eastern coast and there were signs that the secretive communist country might be preparing a show of force off its western coast, as well.

> > > Category Editor Clarification < < <
Per the market's creator, this question doesn't refer to just Kim Jong Il; any Chinese military action toward North Korea will count. In other words, even were Kim Jong Il to pass away before both the market's May, 2012, suspend date and any action by China, this market would still remain open.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

No - China takes no military action.

92%

China responds with missiles or its airforce only.

China invades North Korea via air & ground troops.

Question suspends in 2 years

Activity: H$41,047
Predictions: 882
Comments: 6

Suspend date: Tue 22nd May 2012 7:59am PST (2 years to go)

Initial likelihoods: No - China takes no military action.: 70%, China responds with missiles or its airforce only.: 29%, China invades North Korea via air & ground troops.: 1%

Action history:

Created Fri 29th May 11:36pm PST by

imantsdimants Level 14, Prophet (H$249,052)

Changed Settlement info Mon 3rd Aug 1:42pm PST by

sqlman [Admin]

: show details

... a major mainstream news source.. <br/> <br/> <div style="width:99%;border-top:2px dashed #999;"><center><b>Category Editor Clarification</b></center> <br/> Per the market's creator, this question refers to only Kim Jong Il. Therefore, if Kim Jong Il were to pass away before both the May, 2012, suspend date and any action by China, this market would have to settle as 'No'.</div>

Changed Settlement info Mon 3rd Aug 1:43pm PST by

sqlman [Admin]

: show details

... a major mainstream news source. <br/> <br/> <div style="width:99%;border-top:2px dashed #999;"><center><b>Category Editor Clarification</b></center> <br/> Per the market's creator, this question refers to only Kim Jong Il. Therefore, if Kim Jong Il were to pass away before both the May, 2012, suspend date and any action by China, this market would have to settle as 'No'.</div>.

Changed Description Mon 3rd Aug 1:44pm PST by

sqlman [Admin]

: show details

... -new-missiles-412886.html</a~~> <~~><br/> <br/> North Korea rattled ... its western coast, as well..<br/> <br/> <div style="width:99%;border-top:2px dashed #999;"><center><b>Category Editor Clarification</b></center><br/> Per the market's creator, this question doesn't refer to just Kim Jong Il; any Chinese military action toward North Korea will count. In otehr words, even were Kim Jong Il to pass away before both the May, 2012, suspend date and any action by China, this market would still remain open.</div>

Changed Description Mon 3rd Aug 1:45pm PST by

sqlman [Admin]

: show details

... style="width:99%;border-top:~~2px~~1px dashed #~~999~~c00;"><center><b>Category Editor Clarification

Changed Description Mon 3rd Aug 1:47pm PST by

sqlman [Admin]

: show details

... :1px dashed #c00;"><center><b><span style="color:#c00;">> > > </span>Category Editor Clarification</<span style="color:#c00;"> < < <</span></span></b></center><br/> Per the ... North Korea will count. In ~~otehr~~other words, even were Kim Jong ... pass away before both the market's May, 2012, suspend date <i>and </i> any action by China, this

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Suspend date: Tue 22nd May 2012 7:59am PST (2 years to go) details

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Predictions (882)

3 weeks ago

m00dc0ntr0l Level 6, Player (H$2,646)

predicted No - China takes no military action. (H$500 at 92%)

11 weeks ago

craig814 Level 11, Legend (H$19,301)

predicted China invades North Korea via air & ground troops. (H$20 at 2%)

12 weeks ago

silver_buyers Level 2, Novice (H$1,092)

predicted No - China takes no military action. (H$100 at 93%)

12 weeks ago

captain_spaulding Level 5, Predictor (H$1,430)

predicted No - China takes no military action. (H$20 at 93%)

12 weeks ago

azeer14 Level 1, Newbie (H$943)

predicted No - China takes no military action. (H$50 at 93%)

Comments (6)

frank2877 Level 11, Legend (H$22,749)

China is not the country being threatened. They are using North Korea as a proxy in it's power struggle with the United States. I'd bet "No", but a 2 year market is just too long for me. :-(

posted 18 weeks ago

spyder Level 15, Seer (H$448,148)

I presume that if Kim Jong Il dies, this marked settles since China cannot take him on if he is dead, so perhaps we don't have to wait 2 years for this to settle. Agreed?

posted 16 weeks ago

imantsdimants Level 14, Prophet (H$249,052)

Would an administrator kindly rule on spyder's question so that we have clarification. Thank you.

posted 16 weeks ago

sqlman [Admin]

I've written to the question's author. If I hear nothing in a few days, I'll make a clarifying notation on my own.

posted 15 weeks ago

imantsdimants Level 14, Prophet (H$249,052)

I have responded to sqlman's email and await his clarifying notation.

posted 15 weeks ago

sqlman [Admin]

Please note the clarification above:

"Per the market's creator, this question doesn't refer to just Kim Jong Il; any Chinese military action toward North Korea will count. In other words, even were Kim Jong Il to pass away before both the market's May, 2012, suspend date and any action by China, this market would still remain open."

posted 15 weeks ago