Created Sat 30th May 2:15pm PST by

Who will come 2nd in the General Election?

Background: The Conservatives seem to have victory sewn up, but for the first time since 1987 an ICM poll (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/5412679/Disaster-for-Gordon-Brown-as-Labour-falls-below-Lib-Dems-in-new-poll.html) shows Labour behind the Liberal Democrats on voting intention, with 22% and 25% respectively. Could the next election see a major upset?

Settlement details:As reported by the BBC.

Market will settle on percentage of votes cast, NOT on number of seats in the House of Commons won.

Forecast history %

Labour

84%

Liberal Democrats

12%

Other

Question suspends in 31 weeks

Activity: H$17,843
Predictions: 47
Comments: 3

Suspend date: Thu 1st Jul 2010 2:59pm PST (31 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Labour: 65%, Liberal Democrats: 30%, Other: 5%

Action history:

Created Sat 30th May 2:15pm PST by

ojw15

Changed Suspend date Tue 2nd Jun 2:50am PST by

tisha

: was: "2009-07-01 14:59:00"

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Suspend date: Thu 1st Jul 2010 2:59pm PST (31 weeks to go) details

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Predictions (47)

3 weeks ago

cplrobinson Level 5, Predictor (H$1,681)

predicted Labour (H$50 at 84%)

3 weeks ago

keyeshoveden [Power User]

predicted Labour (H$1,000 at 83%)

4 weeks ago

johnnyd Level 7, Pro (H$3,336)

predicted Other (H$100 at 4%)

6 weeks ago

harlech Level 7, Pro (H$4,325)

predicted Liberal Democrats (H$20 at 15%)

9 weeks ago

keyeshoveden [Power User]

predicted Labour (H$1,000 at 81%)

Comments (3)

pixydee Level 1, Newbie (H$461)

I cannot understand why a significant amount of people see the Conservative Party as a sensible choice for the next government.
They have failed to present any concrete policies to the public and David Cameron has been flaky on most issues he attempted to push.
The present Labour government lacks imagination or direction but they have some principles that most people can identify with.
If Labour has any common sense - they will force Gordon Brown to resign and vote for a leader who is left wing but with a strong focus creating opportunities to enable people to build small businesses and take advantage of vocational education. This would be tricky to achieve but a significant amount of people would want to see it Labour has anything else to offer. The new leadership would have to drive through several initiatives including push for an open investigation into the war in Iraq, be more assertive in regards to fighting European laws that appear to conflict with British norms and radically change the way it communicates with the British people.

I believe that the Liberal Democrats would be a better choice for government because they appear to be more focused on everyday issues but their stance on income tax scare a lot of people and their present leader does not look like someone most people would want as Prime Minister.

posted 24 weeks ago

jamest Level 15, Seer (H$345,077)

Pixydee agreed on your conclusion but you have to remember it is the same reason people vote for the BNP, there is a significant minority of stupid people.

posted 20 weeks ago