Created Sun 31st May 2009 3:17pm PST by

valornhonor Level 8, Super-Pro (H$5,724)

Will first page HB Oracles beat Oracle CEO Ellison in "earnings" during 2009?

Settled as No

Background: Question is asking whether the "net worth" as expressed on the Leaderboard at 5pm CST on 12/31/08 for the Top 20 Hubdubbers will be more than the compensation that Oracle CEO Lawrence J. Ellison will pull down for 2009. In 2008 he took in a cool $84.6M, or about double what the Top 20 Hubdubbers have "in the bank" right now, not quite 1/2 way through the year.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

Yes

94%

Settled as No on Fri 15th Jan 2:09am PST

Activity: H$55,540
Predictions: 31
Comments: 3

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Fri 15th Jan 2:09am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 31st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Sun 31st May 2009 3:17pm PST by

valornhonor Level 8, Super-Pro (H$5,724)

Suspended Thu 31st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Thu 14th Jan 10:14pm PST by

randburg Level 20, Hubdub God (H$5,868,982)

: This question has been suspended for more than fourteen days without settlement. Can this question please be settled at this time? Many Thanks!

Settled as 'No' Fri 15th Jan 2:09am PST by

nigeleccles [Admin]

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Predictions (31)

14 weeks ago

frogchop Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,717,208)

predicted No (H$2,500 at 71%)

25 weeks ago

frogchop Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,717,208)

predicted No (H$2,500 at 72%)

30 weeks ago

pitchedoutsideleg [Power User]

predicted No (H$10,000 at 61%)

37 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

predicted No (H$200 at 51%)

38 weeks ago

lcsnor Level 15, Seer (H$322,064)

predicted No (H$250 at 56%)

Comments (3)

dieseldog Level 16, Oracle (H$730,473)

long time no see valhonor. welcome back..hope all is well.

posted 41 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

I missed this before, but I think the date is wrong in the background - should be 09, not 08.
Second, what all is counted in his compensation? Pay and awarded options are obvious, but execs get other perks. Then there is the issue of valuating the awarded options and the value of exercised options. This could get a bit tricky.
It's a clever question, I like the idea, but it would help to get some more clarity ahead of time....

posted 37 weeks ago