Will Air France Flight 447's black box be recovered?

This question assumes that the flight has in fact crashed (not yet known.)

In my opinion a clarification is needed: whether the question is asking for the black box to be found only by the suspend date or will it be found at all, in which case the suspend date may be moved further in time.

No hope for Air France flight 447
http://foxyurl.com/4K5

228 people are dead and we are here placing bets about the crash. I am passing on this one. My deepest condolences to all the families.

Orlin, the question's crux is whether the black box will be found at all. Assuming of course that the plane can be located.

Oberon, I understand your sentiments regarding perhaps the inappropriateness of the question in the face of an ongoing tragedy. I don't wish to offend but for some it will no doubt be offensive. I'm of the opinion that little is off limits. That points of view are by their nature offensive. I also believe that censorship even when employed in defense of "the greater good" is the real evil. Tragedies happen. Humanity is one big tragedy in my opinion. This particular tragedy doesn't register as any more or less tragic than yesterday's tragedies nor will it outshine tomorrows. Death is part of life and death is what makes life worthwhile. I personally think death has been turned into a taboo subject by a fearful and public in denial. There's nothing to fear about death. Not by those whom die nor by those who are left behind. Death is an occurrence. The only thing you have is NOW. That's why I'm surprised by so many that argue "tactful behavior, mournfulness, sorrow and despair in the face of "losing" someone. These are usually people that think they lived life. Yet they never started "living" to begin with because they've done nothing but fear life's fleetingness. Amor fati. Love your fate. Have no regrets. I am what I am. I can only be what I am. I will die. It may not be in a plane but it will be in some place, some time. t! Anyway! That's my personal opinion. I suspect most won't like it. But if I cared what people always thought about me I wouldn't exactly be me would I? I'd be what I thought others thought I should be. Now that's life's real tragedy. How many billions of us are walking around "living" for other peoples standards? Way too many.

1/ it cannot be foung in 1day!!!!!!
2/ it a disguised death question

Curious is right on both counts!

1/ if I were to suspend the question of who would win game 1 between the Lakers and the Magic during the 3rd quarter that would defeat the purpose wouldn't it? This is "predict" the news not tell me what the news is after it has occurred.

2/ is this not a "disguised" death question?

Yes it is. And I'll flag it so it can be voided to free you from any guilt you might be suffering from.

Alright, I've thought about this. My question is NOT a disguised death question. I feel like I'm being attacked for the sake of political correctness. In my opinion my question is not nearly as bad as several others I've seen on this site. I.e. "How many US soldiers will kill themselves in 2009?" The bigger question at hand is am I or others going to be silenced for the sake of "beautifying" life's realities? I'm not going to let a subgroup of overly sentimental people dictate to me what is valid, tasteful or relevant. Your values are NOT my values. You may believe the question "Will Air France Flight 447's black box be recovered?" is inappropriate. But I do not. Nothing in this question is making light of this horrible situation. It simply asks whether this flights black box will be recovered.

This is not a 'death market' of the type discouraged on Hubdub, any more than the other plane crash markets have been ("What will be named as the primary cause of the crash of Flight such-and-such?") If the question creator wishes to void for some other reason, that's his prerogative. But we won't void this one for any Hubdub rule violation, as it hasn't yet violated any.

Man, some of you people need to switch to a decaffeinated coffee. Geez.

A bit unrelated to the more heated question, but in terms of the suspend date, Hubdub admins backvoid bets placed after an event happens, so you can set a time you think is reasonable for it to be found ie 4 weeks, make that the cutoff and then if it's found sooner any bets placed after the news broke get voided. It just gets you around the issue of how long is your money tied up after the suspend date...otherwise, when do you settle as no?

Dont be put off, keep making questions

Thanks cookietime. I will use your advice.

I certainly are not feeling any guilt as i dont wager on these .
having said that cookie has a point .
but as it is it can lead to cheating

this is a perfectly valid Q IMHO...it does not reference death, only whether the technology incorporated in the black boxes on airplanes is sufficient for it to be found in the middle of an ocean...the only reason why so-called death pools are banned is because some ppl have an unnecessary fear of death and therefore don't wish to discuss it...

Nice statement oppland, about death. I totally respect your views.

The one aspect you do not mention however, which had become a problem on HD (which this question does not get into) , IMHO, was that some questions dealing with death were morbid. Dealing with the ugliest aspects of death. This question does not do that. Anyway, good question..

So how long after the suspend date do we have for them to find the black box?

Anybody claiming that this question is in bad taste should give this a little bit more thought.

Hubdub has made a tough and honorable decision by banning markets directly related to death recently. Now this question should be banned too? Under what pretense? because it is a tragedy? So, any questions relating to tragedies should not be allowed. In this attempt to not disrespect the dead should we ban all questions relating to the leadership of Zimbabwe or N.Korea? Are these not tragedies of at least equal magnitude of a plane crash?

How on earth is this a death question (disguised or otherwise)? The likelihood of finding the black box is totally independent to who lives/dies.

I'm interested in putting money on this question but until a settlement date is fixed, it is impossible to fix odds on whether it will be found. In five years, if the black box has still not been found, will it settle then? or is this a 30-45 day question, like it should be. Settlement should always be tied to a specific date. After 30 days the battery will be dead on the transponder and the odds of finding the units will approach zero.

Frogchop is right. This question should have only a 30 day window, because after 30 days the transponder will cease signaling. The suspend date and settlement date should be July 1, 2009. As for it being a death market question, I don't see it that way at all. This question is really asking "Will searchers find the needle in the Haystack?"

It's worth remembering too that planes have 2 black boxes - the Cockpit Voice Recorder and Flight Data Recorder. I assume this will pay out on either being found?

Oppland I support your views wholeheartedly. I have one caveat to add. Someday people will not die. We will discover ways to cheat death, cloned bodies with downloaded brains, elimination of the aging process, cyrogenics, something.

When you think we were in nearly the dark ages 200 years ago, and if you asked the man on the street then what do you think the chances are of man walking on the moon, or of nearly every person on the planet carrying around a tiny pocket sized communication devices that lets them instantly talk to anyone else on the planet if they have their number they would think you are crazy.

So I think in another 200 years, these days will seem like the dark ages, and imagine 2,000 or 20,000 years after that. If humans don't all kill each other or become extinct for some other reason like destroying the planet, nuclear winter, or a 100% fatal plague, than it is our destiny that we will eliminate death.

Why do some users click on questions they don't like?

Quit trying to censor questions, if you don't like the content don't click on it.

If you offend easy this might be a better site for you http://www.wdisneyw.com/forums/

"I'm interested in putting money on this question but until a settlement date is fixed, it is impossible to fix odds on whether it will be found. In five years, if the black box has still not been found, will it settle then? or is this a 30-45 day question, like it should be. Settlement should always be tied to a specific date. After 30 days the battery will be dead on the transponder and the odds of finding the units will approach zero."

I will contact the Cat. Admin. and have them change the settlement date for this market to 4 weeks.


"It's worth remembering too that planes have 2 black boxes - the Cockpit Voice Recorder and Flight Data Recorder. I assume this will pay out on either being found?"

Yes, if either are found the market is decided as yes.

"So I think in another 200 years, these days will seem like the dark ages, and imagine 2,000 or 20,000 years after that. If humans don't all kill each other or become extinct for some other reason like destroying the planet, nuclear winter, or a 100% fatal plague, than it is our destiny that we will eliminate death."

tgallag2, precisely. I see little hope for humanity. But you never know what will happen. Perhaps humanity will continue to dodder on for another 5,000 years, but if our past and present are any indicators I wouldn't count on it. IMHO I don't think it really matters. If we go extinct or whether we thrive. In the end it doesn't really matter. Here, now, that's what matters. You can't ever guarantee tomorrow will be there. So I live for now. Not tomorrow.

I'd like to have seen an expiration date on this as well, such as found by 8/1/2009. Otherwise it sounds like will it ever be found. If I vote no will my money be tied up for years and years?

Also, if the black box is not found within 30 min. of the crash, please settle as no.

I've flagged it for insertion of an amended suspension and settlement date (see comment 25).

Please note the new suspension date and info regarding what constitutes a "black box":

Category Editor Clarification: Please note that the suspend date has been moved until four weeks after the crash. Also note that for purposes of settlement, the term "black box" here refers to either the Flight Data Recorder or Voice Cockpit Recorder, or both.

Quote Morgie: "Why do some users click on questions they don't like?
Quit trying to censor questions, if you don't like the content don't click on it."
Agree. There was a market on hostages taken in the Sudan desert and one of my colleagues was actually one of them. I certainly didn't engage there, as that would have been utterly disgusting (fortunately, they all returned safe and sound).
But I don't see why you shouldn't bet on events that do not personally affect you inlcuding those connected with death.
Furthermore, we often tend to have more concerns about single fates than about a large number. While watching the news on the plane crash, my wife yesterday said, that this plane crash is such a tragedy. I agreed but said that the collapse of GM is probably worse with thousands losing their jobs. If you were able to count all suicides connected directly or indirectly with that, you will probably end up with a higher toll than 228 ... (not counting all those people ending up in long-term unemployment).

"Furthermore, we often tend to have more concerns about single fates than about a large number. While watching the news on the plane crash, my wife yesterday said, that this plane crash is such a tragedy. I agreed but said that the collapse of GM is probably worse with thousands losing their jobs. If you were able to count all suicides connected directly or indirectly with that, you will probably end up with a higher toll than 228 ... (not counting all those people ending up in long-term unemployment)."

I think like you horatiomonty. The real tragedy is that humanity almost seems powerless against its own neurosis. One quote that I've always found very illuminating is "One death is a tragedy; a million is a statistic." Joseph Stalin's prophetic words. And if anyone should know this firsthand it would surely be Stalin.

@oppland well done this is now longer a death question, as is was in its original format. it is know worthy of a wager as we are looking i take from one of two .congrats

Thanks! curious. Can I send you a friend invite or vice versa?

http://www.reuters.com/article/africaCrisis/idUSN03529997
Officials said the recorders needed to identify the causes of the mysterious crash could be on the ocean floor at a depth of 6,600 to 9,800 feet (2,000 to 3,000 metres).

The recorders are designed to send homing signals for up to 30 days when they hit water but many do not float well.

One expert said it could be among the hardest recoveries since the decades-long search to find the Titanic. [ID:nL2690712]

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said he was confident that the black boxes would be located.

"I think a country that can find oil 6,000 metres (19,685 feet) under the ocean can find a plane 2,000 metres (6,500 feet) down," he told reporters on Tuesday in Guatemala, referring to recent oil finds by Brazil's state energy company in ultra-deep waters.

uhh.. this is bs, i bet based on the original suspension date, it's now changed and i want my money back!

Autotom, I understand. It was my mistake. Maybe you could contact an Admin. to refund your h$.

all good, my H$ are worth what they were before.. :) and... withdrawn..

Good to hear.

I hope it is recovered, but I don't think it will be.

Now that the settlement details are cleaned up, back on topic... I've been interested in air disasters for many years and this one has to be one of the most unusual. The overwhelming majority of aviation accidents are on take off and landing and the rate of incidents drops as planes go higher and further from population centers. As a rule, planes just don't fall out of the sky. They have to hit something, run out of fuel, have something blow up on board, or have multiple redundant systems go catastrophically wrong. In the absence of a black box, with an accident scene over very remote and deep water, and with no pattern of similar incidents with this aircraft; this one could take years to understand what happened and why.

What are some of the thoughts, besides what's been commonly bantered about in the news, as to the cause? The debris field was spread over 3 miles, which could possibly indicate the plane broke up before impact (i.e. and indicator of explosive energy, either internal or from an outside force), but it could just as easily be explained by the currents pulling the pieces away from each other over the 24-48 hours it took to be discovered. Lightning has been talked about, but generally doesn't result kind of incident. I was surprised to hear the experts so quickly rule out terrorism. It could also be hazardous materials on board. I was wondering just how large a hailstone it would take to fatally damage an aircraft. Falling space debris or a small meteor seem like longshots. So besides just the standard "weather" answer, any other thoughts?

Don't let this be the source of rumours. These are just a few thoughts being bantered about my laymen, not experts.

I suspect that public pressure will galvanize the governments to put their best efforts forward. I too would like to see it recovered as it may elucidate what exactly happened.

There is more than a couple major players interested in doing whatever they can to recovering the black boxes.

I'm thinking if they can pick up two ends of a broken internet cable off the ocean floor they should be able to find this thing while it is transponding. I'm all in! (or $H10 000 anyway)

The race is on.

I also predict this is going to be a popular question this month.

Mork, I appreciate your entheusiasm, but how many years did it take for them to find the Titanic? I just read that Brazil is sending divers to the scene. What? Divers? Somehow I don't think that diving to a depth of 6,000' is going to work. They're going to need ROVs, side scan sonar, and every other piece of technological wizardry available and it's still going to come down to dumb luck. Brazil need to start asking for international help now. They need the very best techology out there and they need it to head in that direction today, not in a week or two. I'd rather see France taking the lead on this, but thus far, it looks like Brazil is, which may lead to significant delay (thus my continued betting on the "no" side).

Frogchop, The technology to find the Titanic did not exist during most of the years of it missing. Also the Titanic didn't have a transponder. I find it hard to believe the Air France is not going to reach into their deep pockets to find this thing.

Brazil sending divers to the scene is irrelevant to me in terms of the black box. Sending divers would be normal procedure for investigations but, as you say, they do not have a hope of finding the box.

I wonder why in this era of airbags etc, why black boxes don't float.

Brazil lacks the equipment needed to reach the ocean floor, she added, so if the black boxes are at the bottom of the sea, their recovery will have to wait for the arrival early next week of a French research ship with remotely controlled submersibles that can explore as deeply as 19,600 feet (6,000 meters).
http://www.thestar.com/news/world/article/644696

Great find Mork. More evidence that the plane was breaking up before hitting the water. Even 100mph winds could not explain this. Something way outside the norm happened up there. I really hope they do find the black box, as this incident could be a one of a kind that recovered wreckage may or may not piece together the answers. I'm just not optimistic when it comes to the black box. The clock is ticking, hurricane season is underway, and even with a transponder, it's a needle in a 6000' deep, several hundred square mile wide haystack... and who's to say the black box or transponder even survived...

Not to add fuel to the rumor mill but...
"Also today, ABC News has confirmed that Air France received a bomb threat over the phone concerning a flight from Buenos Aires, Argentina, to Paris days before Air France flight 447 disappeared over the Atlantic Ocean Sunday night.

Authorities at Buenos Aires' Ezeiza Airport delayed the May 27 flight before takeoff and conducted a 90-minute search of the threatened aircraft. Passengers were not evacuated during the search, which yielded no explosive material. After the inspection, authorities allowed the plane to take off for Paris.

Four days later, flight 447 departed from Rio de Janeiro. There was no known threat against the missing flight." - http://blog.seattlepi.com/aerospace/archives/170221.asp?source=mypi

Albeit highly unlikely, it can't be ruled out yet.

Just a fun fact:

Almost all 'black boxes' are bright orange, red, or yellow.

Long Odds Search for Black Boxes
http://trueslant.com/milesobrien/2009/06/03/long-odds-search-for-black-boxes/

SKIPPER!!! glad to see u back...thought u were gone 4ever :P

@ oppland, while reading your link I found this one referred to: http://www.weathergraphics.com/tim/af447/

While the author's analysis is insightful and well worth a look, the number of pilots responding with their own experience and ideas has me rethinking the likelihood of severe updrafts and other wind related events. One pilot talked about a very similar experience in an A340 resulting in a loss of the fly-by-wire system and an emergency landing. Certainly not an MSM source, but perhaps much better than the MSM sources given the number of indepth contributions from aviation professionals.

Yep, looked at that too. Amazing stuff. I think a combination of meteorological extremes is the likely culprit in this crash. It will be difficult to prove though if there isn't at least moderately successful salvage of the plane's piece. No pieces, no certainty, no peace of mind.

"Certainly not an MSM source, but perhaps much better than the MSM sources given the number of indepth contributions from aviation professionals."

@ frogchop, you mean like this? http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article6414805.ece

But then you have the MSM reporting contradictory things like this: Airbus A330 model has good safety record
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jun/01/air-france-plane-good-safety-record

I understand and accept the risks of flying thousands of feet in the air. In terms of deaths per thousands cars are vastly more dangerous. That doesn't mean however that air crashes should be excused. Quite the opposite. What makes modern air travel even possible is the publics' belief in its ability to safely transport them with a very high probability of surviving to see their destination. So that brings up manufacture error. Either with the planes physical structure or its electronic hardware. I trust the structural soundness of modern aircraft very, very much. These planes are stress tested to death. No pun intended. Now the electronics? That's a whole other ballgame. And you aren't going to hear doubts coming from the mouths of the aviation industry concerning "buggy electronics." It just won't happen. The safety record of these planes speak for themselves. Are they safe? Technically speaking yes, without a doubt. Are there kinks in the electronics that could cause one of these planes to behave erratically? The probability is certainly possible. Humans make electronic systems and they program them for many contingencies but not contingencies as it is humanly impossible and economically unfeasible.

@pics4d

Yea, my school work was more intensive than I guessed...
But now I only have three finals left, so I will be back when I'm not in Europe or working.

@ opp: Commercial aviation is hundreds of times safer than driving. http://www.airdisaster.com/statistics/

Could aviation be safer? Sure, just like driving could be safer if we removed all drove M1 Abrams tanks (minus the gun, of course). Everything is a cost benefit analysis. If you want a plane ticket to cost less than $10k, than compromises need to be made.

Agreed. Planes are modern marvels.

I know that this isn't the place to mention this, but I do wish there was a way to 'borrow' money from hubdub (to a certain limit,) and then pay it back to the site with interest.

I just decided to re-start playing and my (onetime) 50K is down to 5k (now 3k) and would love to borrow 10K to put on this question, then repay it later (from my obvious hubwinnings).

Just an idea!

Are you saying we need a Hubdub Ca$h N' Go?

I'm sure China would be willing to loan you some hubdubs at the right interest rate.

I think I need a HubGov bailout!
I was too big to fail... once...

Maybe I should try HubBankruptcy?

Welcome back Skipper.

Old story: jet aircraft = 1,842,917 parts EACH MADE BY THE LOWEST BIDDER. And yet quite safe...

If the average driver had 10% of the training and took the task of driving as seriously as the average commercial pilot, there would probably be 30,000 fewer fatalities on our highways, too. With the exception of SUV rollovers, the cause of most traffic accidents is the failure of only one part common to every car; the nut behind the wheel.

Absolutely true. 9 times out of 10 it is the fault of the woman behind the wheel. Just kidding. It's almost always human error.

"Men are more than twice as likely to die in a car crash than women, consider the yearly statistics shown below. In fact, studies have shoiwn as many as 73 percent of all people killed in car accidents are male. Since record keeping began: male fatalities significantly outweigh female fatalities. However men and women do not drive the same number of miles under the same conditions- men do about 60-65% more driving than women. Studies show that woman take shorter trips and female drivers have a greater number of minor crashes than do men. However men are still 70% more likely to be in a serious crash." - Car Accidents.com

The debris currently found was NOT from Air France flight AF447. So the search for the right location has to start again...
http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/americas/06/04/plane.crash/index.html

If they don't find debris that is related to the crash of flight AF447 there will be no end to speculation.

It's kinda sad that, as some news stories were saying yesterday, that for $100 any of us can walk into a store and buy a simple GPS system that can let friends or emergency personnel know where we are...yet there's no law in place yet requiring such a device on a commercial airliner. Pilots have to radio in their location at certain specified intervals, a frustrating task made all the more frustrating because of spotty radio coverage in certain areas, such as most of the South American continent. The upshot: a drunk guy can crash his ten-year-old car into a tree in the middle of the night in some Wyoming forest, and an ambulance will show up minutes later. But a huge, modern jumbo jet carrying hundreds of people can disappear into the wild, and would-be rescuers are stuck with looking for oil slicks and "airplane-derived flotsam".

sql,
Good point with regard to the GPS. Nevertheless, if the aircraft does not have radio coverage, unless the satellites might automatically (send their signals to another receiving station of some kind, because the flights might have special GPS' ), then they cannot send their locations in to South America, or wherever - regardless of how automatic the GPS locations are determined..

I use a Spot transciever (www.findmespot.com) for my backcountry adventures and it uses essentially satellite phone text messages to send my GPS coordinates when I push a button. However, the system is limited in its span. Satellite phone communication is not world wide. It's where they have subscribers. There's simply not enough subscribers in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean to fund a billion dollar satellite that may get 150 calls a year for a few minutes. Even if there were complete global satellite coverage, in an incident like this, it certainly would stop working the instant the plane hit the water, maybe even sooner when the plane first started experiencing electrical problems. If you want this to never happen again and have a GPS transciever on every flight that will transmit location every five minutes and the satellites to support it, calculate how much the average airfare would have to go up to fund the $35 billion it would cost to put those birds in the air and divide by the number of flights over a few years. I don't think it happens often enough to warrant the expense. ...at least not when we still haven't spent enough to x-ray every piece of cargo and luggage flown on a commercial airliner (shhhh, we're not supposed to know that)...

All modern airliners and even most private planes now have transcievers to aid in rescue, but they don't work on the bottom of the ocean. There's no easy answer. Let's not kid ourselves though. While everyone wants to know what happened and why, it won't bring back a single life and nobody is awaiting rescue.

"The nuclear-powered submarine Emeraude was dispatched to the area last week to help recover the "black box" flight recorders, which may contain clues to explain the disaster and which are believed to lie deep on the Atlantic ocean floor.

"The Emeraude will begin its patrol during the morning in an initial search zone of 36 km by 36," Christophe Prazuck, a spokesman for the French military said. He said the search zone would be changed daily. "

There was an at-sea air crash several years back in which the black boxes were located before their audible pinging stopped, but they weren't recovered until several months later (at which point the data stored on them was still 100% intact). It seems a shame that this one may possibly settle as 'No' even though the location of the boxes may be known by the suspend date...

True, but it may well save my ass :-D

This is like trying to find a FAINTLY PINGING needle in a haystack...only nobody has heard the pinging as yet...It was easier FINDING NEMO...

...ping...ping...ping...pong...pong...blubb............silence...

they heard it pinging.. dang it will they find it in 1 week? hard to say

Oh.... still the transponders might be separated from the black box ... (or is this just wishful thinking?)

AAARGGHH, i thought i was being quick, but then the hubdub site suddenly bailed on me! Now i lost all my hubdollars!... Darnit!

Hehe, this is going to be a rollercoaster sure enough.
Rule #1: Stay cool....

PARIS -- The French newspaper Le Monde reported today that French military ships have detected a signal from the black boxes of Flight 447 in the Atlantic Ocean. The report says a mini-submarine, the Nautile, dived Monday to search for the boxes based on a "very weak signal" from the flight recorders picked up by the French ships. The report on Le Monde's website gave no source or other details. It was not clear whether the signal came from the flight's data recorder or the voice recorder. The two so-called black boxes, key to helping determine what happened to the Air France plane that plunged into the ocean May 31, will only continue to emit signals for about eight more days.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-air-france24-2009jun24,0,3141268.story

The detected signals are not from the black boxes:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090623/ap_on_re_eu/brazil_plane

Kruijs: Make up your mind, bud, you're all over the place on this one. ;-)

lol, yes, I've been riding the waves ... and made a few bucks by buying and selling today here.

Zocker! ;-)

hey, dafür sind wir doch hier, oder?

@horatiomonty

the transmitter is built into the black box, theres now way it would be separated.
also, i don't believe that its a 'transponder' that would respond based on the received signal.. my understanding is that it is simply a transmitter.

I'm not an expert; that's just what I read one of the French guys said. And I had no idea about the difference between a transponder and transmitter, so thanks for the explanation.
Anyhow - they won't find the thing...:-)

06/26: the search for the black boxes will go on for another 16 days, or roughly 10 days after this one suspends. Pity. http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iOegnahAFcEgwJZ4WKGkVz9Dgq5wD992L1QO2

...and if they find them on July 2nd this settles as "No", right?

Airlines Study Alternatives to Jets’ Black Boxes
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/14/business/14blackbox.html