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Will microsoft's Bing have a 20% marketshare in the US by the end of the year?

Background:

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
4%
No
96%
Question suspends in 5 weeks

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 4:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 20%

Action history:

Created Mon 1st Jun 4:51am PST by vanderkrogt

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 4:59pm PST (5 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (222)

1 week ago
jhc360 predicted Yes (H$20 at 13%)
1 week ago
frogchop predicted No (H$2,000 at 87%)
1 week ago
tocornal predicted No (H$20 at 85%)
1 week ago
meri604 predicted No (H$50 at 85%)
1 week ago
mdad8200 predicted No (H$200 at 85%)

Comments (3)

What is your definition of "marketshare"? Some "major news sources" base it on advertising revenue
ex. http://www.komarketingassociates.com/industry-news/bing-search-market-share-inching-slowly-upward$310.htm
some base it on "percent of all searches performed":
ex. http://www.crn.com/software/220900332;jsessionid=5CUGBTAXWAW55QE1GHPSKHWATMY32JVN
posted 2 weeks ago
  2 frogchop
9.6% currently and running out of time this year: http://www.mysmartrend.com/nw/15460
posted 1 week ago

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