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On what network will a show surpass American ldol for the number one show in a season?

Background: American Idol has been the number one show for several years now, and it looks like it can't be brought down. These are the numbers for '08-09 season. American Idol led by several million viewers. http://tvlistings.zap2it.com/ratings/season.html

Settlement details:Answer will settle at the end of the tv season in which American Idol (Tuesday or Wednesday) is not in the number one slot. Settlement date will be changed to the season finale date of American Idol 2012 when it is announced.

 
Forecast history %
CBS
11%
ABC
13%
FOX
11%
NBC
11%
American Idol will remain number 1 / Other outcome
55%
Question suspends in 2 years

Suspend date: Tue 15th May 2012 11:59pm PST (2 years to go)

Initial likelihoods: CBS: 15%, ABC: 15%, FOX: 15%, NBC: 15%, American Idol will remain number 1 / Other outcome: 40%

Action history:

Created Mon 1st Jun 11:12am PST by philculp

Suspend date: Tue 15th May 2012 11:59pm PST (2 years to go) details

 

Predictions (8)

2 weeks ago
horsefeathers predicted American Idol will remain number 1 / Other outcome (H$1,000 at 50%)
8 weeks ago
horsefeathers predicted American Idol will remain number 1 / Other outcome (H$500 at 48%)
11 weeks ago
lghtning44 predicted American Idol will remain number 1 / Other outcome (H$250 at 44%)
22 weeks ago
philphan1 predicted American Idol will remain number 1 / Other outcome (H$20 at 42%)
24 weeks ago
tschneider81 predicted American Idol will remain number 1 / Other outcome (H$300 at 43%)

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