How well will Hollywood's top movies do during the weekend of July 3?

Settled as Down more than $35,000,000 compared to prior wkend

Jul. 3-5 $155,486,083 -19.4% Transformers 2 27
Jun. 26-28 $192,896,955 +33.4% Transformers 2 26

Background:

Background: The question here is how much better or worse will the top twelve grossing movies do on the weekend in question compared to the prior weekend.

Will the upcoming weekend do substantially better, or will box office grosses take a dive because of a big bomb.

Weekend movie grosses can vary widely - sometimes the top twelve movies in one weekend can gross $70,000,000 more (or $70,000,000 less) compared to the weekend just before it.

Settlement details:As reported at http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/ on the Monday evening following the weekend. (For consistency, this question will be based only on a Friday - Sunday weekend.)

Forecast history %

Up more than $35,000,000 compared to prior weekend

Up $0 - $35,000,000 compared to prior weekend

24%

Down $1-$35,000,000 compared to prior weekend

60%

Down more than $35,000,000 compared to prior wkend

14%

Settled as Down more than $35,000,000 compared to prior wkend on Mon 6th Jul 1:07pm PST

Activity: H$19,339
Predictions: 50
Comments: 0

Suspend date: Sat 4th Jul 2pm PST
Settlement date: Mon 6th Jul 1:07pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 4th Jul 2pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Up more than $35,000,000 compared to prior weekend: 20%, Up $0 - $35,000,000 compared to prior weekend: 30%, Down $1-$35,000,000 compared to prior weekend: 30%, Down more than $35,000,000 compared to prior wkend: 20%

Action history:

Created Mon 1st Jun 9:06pm PST by

jeopardy Level 13, Psychic (H$76,764)

Suspended Sat 4th Jul 2pm PST : Suspend date reached

Settled as 'Down more than $35,000,000 compared to prior wkend' Mon 6th Jul 1:07pm PST by