What is the primary cause of the crash of Air France Flight 447?
Background: On June 1st, 2009, Air France flight 447 (A330-200) crashed in the middle of the Atlantic ocean. All on board the plane perished (not confirmed when the question) is made .
Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. NOTE: WEATHER WILL NOT COUNT AS A FACTOR IN THE CRASH IN THIS QUESTION. For example, if lightning caused the fuel tank to explode, it will count as "other structural problems". Usually, plane crashes are usually a chain of events. Therefore, the first event (or error) that affects the ability for the plane to fly safely (except weather) would count as the primary cause of the crash. (Eg., if lightning cause the wing to break up therefore, causing a fuel and electrical problem, it would count as "other structural problem". However, if the pilot flew into thunderstorms which they have a good possibility to avoid the storm. That action caused the aircraft to break up. This scenario would count as pilot error.)
What is the primary cause of the crash of Air France Flight 447?
pilot error
weather-related system problems (radar etc.)
automated control (fly-by wire, autopilot, etc.)
engine/fuel/fuel system (except fuel tank) problem
other electrical/ IT/ computer problems
other structural problems (wing, fuselage, etc.)
terrorist bombing
none of the above (other)
Forecast history %
|
| pilot error | | |
|
| weather-related system problems (radar etc.) | | |
|
| automated control (fly-by wire, autopilot, etc.) | | |
|
| engine/fuel/fuel system (except fuel tank) problem | | |
|
| other electrical/ IT/ computer problems | | |
|
| other structural problems (wing, fuselage, etc.) | | |
|
| terrorist bombing | | |
|
| none of the above (other) | | |
Question suspends in 6 years
Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 2015 11:59pm PST (6 years to go)
Initial likelihoods:
pilot error: 10%, weather-related system problems (radar etc.): 10%, automated control (fly-by wire, autopilot, etc.) : 10%, engine/fuel/fuel system (except fuel tank) problem: 10%, other electrical/ IT/ computer problems : 10%, other structural problems (wing, fuselage, etc.): 10%, terrorist bombing: 10%, none of the above (other): 30%
Action history:
Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 2015 11:59pm PST (6 years to go) details 
Predictions (93)
13 weeks ago
bout3fitty
predicted
weather-related system problems (radar etc.) (H$500 at 31%)
13 weeks ago
bigken1 predicted
automated control (fly-by wire, autopilot, etc.) (H$100 at 17%)
20 weeks ago
bigken1 predicted
none of the above (other) (H$100 at 25%)
20 weeks ago
bigken1 predicted
pilot error (H$300 at 5%)
20 weeks ago
bigken1 predicted
automated control (fly-by wire, autopilot, etc.) (H$100 at 19%)
Comments (8)
big_red_dog_europa
Comments: 8
ryanj
: show details
Get widget!
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article6444498.ece
If the options are not distinct (ie. if A, B, C, etc. do not exclude each other) then more than 1 can happen. If this is the case, how is the question settled? Are both (or more) awarded? If other means more than 1, this is another option, but that has not been stated, and bets have already been placed, so i think clarification might help.
therefor: If a question cannot be settled on one single, distinct option, the question must be voided. In rare cases though, a double settlement is rewarded - solely to avoid voiding. (see http://www.hubdub.com/m11065/ "For the first time ever, the Bond theme will be a duet by Alicia Keys and Jack White. Both these options will be paid out.")
in this case, the question asks for the primary cause (which indicates the most important one). I can see that a combination of factors led to the crash - but in most situations there will be reported one main cause - see background text. On this, the question is most likely able to settle.
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