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MLB: Will another pitcher reach 300 career wins before June 5, 2029?

Background: On June 4, 2009, San Francisco Giants pitcher Randy Johnson defeated the Washington Nationals 5-1 for his 300th career win. 21-year veteran Johnson became the first pitcher to reach the milestone since August 5, 2007 and 24th overall.

The next highest total among active players is 46-year-old Jamie Moyer, who has 250 wins. 36-year-old Andy Pettitte has the next most wins with 220. Free-agent pitcher Pedro Martinez, who has 214 wins, is also 36 years old.

Fellow 300-game winners Tom Glavine and Nolan Ryan list three factors that may signal that Johnson will be the last 300-game winner:

1) Five-man rotations restrict starting pitchers to a maximum of 33 starts per season.
2) Starters do not pitch very deep into the game. As a result, they receive more no-decisions than in previous years.
3) Most pitchers do not want to pitch long enough to accumulate 300 wins.

Additional information:
http://sanfrancisco.giants.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090602&content_id=5104542&vkey=news_sf&fext=.jsp&c_id=sf
http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/historical/player_stats.jsp?teamPosCode=all&statType=2&timeFrame=3&Submit=Submit&c_id=mlb&sitSplit=&timeSubFrame2=1&venueID=&baseballScope=mlb&timeSubFrame=1&&sortByStat=W

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
40%
No
60%
Question suspends in 9 years

Suspend date: Mon 3rd Jun 2019 11:59pm PST (9 years to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 40%

Action history:

Created Fri 5th Jun 2009 9:49am PST by onedave[Power User]

Suspend date: Mon 3rd Jun 2019 11:59pm PST (9 years to go) details

 

Predictions (3)

15 weeks ago
corbelle predicted No (H$50 at 60%)
16 weeks ago
thejew predicted Yes (H$100 at 40%)
40 weeks ago
philphan1 predicted Yes (H$20 at 40%)

Comments (1)

Hmmm. No one wants to tie their H$ up for the next 20 years?
posted 40 weeks ago

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