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Which party will win the Norwich South constituency at the next General Election?

Background: The Green Party trounced Labour in the 2009 Norfolk county council elections and are the official opposition on Norwich City Council. It looks possible that they will unseat Charles Clarke, the sitting Labour MP at the next election. Will they manage it, or will Labour (or some other party) hold on to the seat?

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Conservative Party
71%
Liberal Democrats
3%
Labour Party
11%
Green Party
13%
some other party/Independent
1%
Question suspends in 31 weeks

Suspend date: Wed 30th Jun 2010 3:59pm PST (31 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Conservative Party: 5%, Liberal Democrats: 10%, Labour Party: 40%, Green Party: 40%, some other party/Independent: 5%

Action history:

Created Sat 6th Jun 5:10am PST by void

Suspend date: Wed 30th Jun 2010 3:59pm PST (31 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (6)

22 weeks ago
pabloc predicted some other party/Independent (H$111 at 4%)
22 weeks ago
pabloc predicted some other party/Independent (H$88 at 2%)
23 weeks ago
pintado predicted some other party/Independent (H$20 at 2%)
23 weeks ago
keyeshoveden[Power User] predicted Conservative Party (H$6,000 at 31%)
23 weeks ago
void predicted Green Party (H$350 at 42%)

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