Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Iranian president win the June 12 election?

Is it safe to assume that a runoff will settle as "No", or would that cause this question to remain open until the runoff election is held?

I'm wondering the same thing. I think Ahmadinejad will place first but not win.

Hopefully this is not as bad as Minnesota. It should go much easier, as dictators tend to get re-elected quickly.

However, the question simply asks: Will he or won't he win the election? It doesn't ask over what period, but this is the Iranian Presidential Election of June 12th.

Question is indeed badly put. I believe Ahmadinejad may get a simple majority on June 12, but lose the run-off. Following randburg's advice.

Thanks for good comments. In this question I mean the final result. I am asking will he win at last or not? It means maybe he will win on first round or be one of two at second round and win at last ı wish you guess the final result of this election but before June 12

Ah but does Ahmadi 'win' if he has only a plurality (say it goes 40-30-30)? That is unclear. I had thought this was the first election, not the final result!

@ruhollah111 - thanks for the summary...

So, despite ruhollah111s clarification, I wonder if the question should be voided and a clearer one put to the community since we all (may have) put money into the question with our own context of what would constitute settlement. Changing the context greatly alters the risk return profile.

The way the question is worded, I don't see it as having anything to do with what happens after Friday. If I were to predict today (unlike a few days ago), I'd say that Mousavi would place first on Friday but end up losing the runoff.

This market is less ambiguously worded:
http://www.hubdub.com/m19282/Who_will_win_the_2009_Iranian_presidential_election

@mvguy - thanks for the other market opportunity - clearer...

We have a clarification from the author here:

"In this question I mean the final result. I am asking will he win at last or not?"

By the way, Randburg's advice is that DICTATORS TEND TO GET RE-ELECTED, just in case anyone missed the point.

Wish this was still open....I still think he's gonna lose....only 11% say no currently...great odds

http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/06/12/updates-on-irans-presidential-election/?scp=1&sq=Iranian State Media: Ahmadinejad Wins Re-Election&st=cse
Iranian Presidential candidate Mir Hussein Moussavi told a hastily assembled, late-night press conference on Friday night in Tehran that he had won the election. Later, Iranian state media declared Mahmoud Ahmadinejad the winner, with only 19% of the votes counted. If neither candidate ends up with more than 50% of the vote, there will be a run-off election next week.

Iranians went to the polls on Friday, after an extraordinary presidential election campaign that could end with the incumbent, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, being turned out of office by his main rival, Mir Hussein Moussavi, a former prime minister. The Lede has been following developments all day.

Update | 6:29 p.m. It looks like we may have to wait until Saturday for complete results to be announced, so we will break off from live blogging for the evening. We will return tomorrow with more updates here on The Lede. Robert Worth in Tehran will be updating the main news article on our Web site tonight as events unfold.

Keep in mind, if Mr. Ahmadinejad did garner 69% of the votes counted so far in primarily rural areas, where support for him is strong, it is not at all certain that he will end up with more than 50% of the total vote, which is what he needs to avoid a run-off against his main rival, Mr. Moussavi.]
[More at the blog...]

Thanks you all my freinds.Mr. Ahmadinejad is winning. It means I am winning too in this question!

Protests Greet Ahmadinejad Win in Iran: 'It's Not Possible!'
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1904563,00.html?xid=rss-topstories

Iran's Interior Minister announced Saturday that incumbent president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had won 63.29% of the vote in the nation's closely watched presidential poll. The announcement, greeted with widespread skepticism by Iranian opposition supporters and by foreign analysts, has brought thousands of people onto the streets where they have encountered a strong police presence and the threat of violence.

Rumors of vote rigging had been flying for hours before the official announcement. At about 11 p.m. Friday, less than an hour after polls closed, reformist challenger Mir-Hossein Mousavi held a press conference and declared that he knew — based on the observations of his campaign officials at polling booths — that he had won a majority of the vote. But rigging was already underway, said Mousavi, who warned that he and the people would stage mass protests if their votes were not respected.

[More at the link...]