How many confirmed and probable cases of Swine Flu will be reported by August in the US?

We're at 21,449 as of yesterday (06/19). For now, the CDC is updating their numbers on Friday only, which means we'll have six more updates before this market suspends (06/26, and 07/03, 10, 17, 24, &31). Assuming the same number of new cases each of those weeks as there were this week--3,594--we'll come in at only 43,013. The actual cases counts are continuing to skyrocket--especially in the northeast--but many states are no longer testing every case or sending results to the U.S. CDC, meaning that while there are already an estimated 100,000 to 200,000 cases in the U.S., the CDC may not make the 55,000 number by the suspend date.

We'll see...

06/26: as of today's update, that's 27,717, a one week increase of 6,268. If that same number is repeated each of the next five weeks, there'll be more than 59,000 cases by the suspend date.

07/03: the CDC says we're up to 33,902 laboratory-confirmed cases, a weekly gain of 6,185. Four more Fridays to go, with each need to gain an average of 5,275. Seems safe...unless even more states jump on the "we've got too many cases to bother counting" bandwagon. :-)

07/11: CDC now says 37,246, a one-week rise of just 3,344. That means each of the next three Fridays need to report an average of 5,918...and with, as was expected, so many more states choosing to stop laboratory testing each case to focus instead on treatment, we may not reach that number. Virologists and epidemiologists estimate there are actually anywhere from 400,000 to 4,000,000 cases of A/H1N1 in the U.S....but this market doesn't ask that, does it. :-)

07/17: Just 40,617 for a weekly rise of 3,371. With two more Fridays to go, even 50,000 seems like a stretch....

43,771 cases reported today, 7/24. Now a new problem. They will stop reporting individual cases after today. So, how will you settle this one? Projecting from the recent pace, there is no way it would hit 55k, so is it fair to expect that that option is out. But what about the next two. The pace certainly indicates that 45,001 - 55,000 should win, but it cannot be confirmed. So, the last reported figure will be today's.......

Individual states are still releasing numbers, but this one's pretty clear about using A) CDC numbers and B) lab-confirmed/probable cases only. Hmmm...

(FWIW, the count is actually estimated to be in the millions, but--as I've said--that doesn't count here.)

Maybe this should suspend now since this is the last CDC count that is going to be published.

Estimated 100,000 new cases from gov figures last week in UK alone. You guys had a big head start on us and your population is four times the size. We have had 32 deaths, 800+ seriously ill in hospital and 68 critical cases. You have had 302 deaths so far. US numbers must be way above 55, 000 cases even two weeks ago. I think the US is being protected from the truth.
It's very difficult to get information on US swine flu infections anywhere.

If the settlement source doesn't supply the figures then another source must be used. At present I have no suggestions as to what source could be used. There must be fairly accurate estimated figures somewhere in a country as advanced as the US.

If no figures are to be released to the end of July then obviously the bet should be cancelled.

To Anthony2500.
The settlement source was defined.
You have no ability to change the rules of the game. Stop trying.

Good night,

sql... Likely the results won't be on a dividing line, however, what about the deaths. These are simply cases that have become deaths (so perhaps the deaths should be added with the cases). Any comments?

Well, this isn't my category, of course, so anything I write here is as a user and not an editor, and should be taken that way. Having said that, I'll repeat what I said before: this market's settlement options are pretty cut and dried, meaning that we have to go with the CDC's published numbers of confirmed/probable cases as of 8/1. Period.

That number--now fixed at 43,771, as noted by tuff sledding--is what the CDC says it is. That's the number of cases that have been tested and typed in a CDC-approved laboratory using CDC-approved methods. However, as Dr. Anne Schuchat of the CDC said in yesterday's press conference, the actual number of 2009 A/H1N1 cases in the United States is well over a million. In the same conference, when urged by a reporter, she said it would be 'misleading' to assert the number is as high as 10 million or 20 million yet (there are about 20 million seasonal flu sufferers each year in the US), and that the million-infected number is based on a sophisticated modeling effort, so it's very accurate. She further stated that in a "couple weeks" the CDC would be releasing the results of far more accurate modeling, which will give interested folks a much clearer picture of just how many people have been infected, and where.

Some interesting--and possibly scary--stuff if you have the time and inclination to read it (http://www.huntingtonnews.net/columns/090726-staff-columnsswineflu.html). Excerpts:

--"I don't like to use the word 'mild' for the new H1N1 influenza virus. I actually think this is a virus that's capable of causing a spectrum of illness that includes severe complications and death."

--"I think this is very unusual to have this much transmission of influenza during the season, and I think it's a testament to how susceptible people are to this virus."

--"20 states [are] reporting widespread or regional influenza activity...it's very unusual for that kind of illness to be occurring at this time of the year. The Novel H1N1 viruses are making up 98% of all the subtyped viruses we have, subtype influenza A viruses, and we're seeing them dominate here in the U.S."

--"This particular H1N1 virus seems to be more of a challenge for healthy young people and for adults who aren't elderly or [who have] underlying conditions."

--"[we saw a] 6% to 8% attack rate occur in the May to June period when there was zero cases of seasonal influenza. To some some extent we were seeing a lot of transmission when the circumstances weren't that great for transmission. During seasonal influenza, the winter months, we might [normally] see rates of 10% to 15% of people developing influenza-like illness. And so what we saw in that sort of three to four-week period with the 6% to 8% was probably just a glimpse of what might happen over the longer winter season when transmission circumstances like temperature are different."

Thanks for comments sql.

I put in a problem with the settlement for the following reasons..

Obviously, there is a problem with this question.. The question says:"CDC will report the total number of hospitalizations and deaths each week, and continue to use its traditional surveillance systems to track the progress of the novel H1N1 flu outbreak."

However, it has not continued to do this, so not sure why settlement was undertaken the way it was...

Bu the CDC is reporting on hospitalizations. It's not a particularly user-friendly document, but A/H1N1 and other extant influenza viruses can be tracked here: http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/. That page is the interface to the CDC's "traditional surveillance systems"; it's how they've always tracked normal seasonal flu, for instance.

As I wrote above, the CDC will shortly start providing estimated case rates of A/H1N1 as a way of tracking the spread of the disease. There will continue to be lab-confirmed cases, but, per WHO's advice and CDC SOP, that will only be done sporadically as a way of making sure that they're still tracking the right virus, and that any symptoms physicians are seeing truly do match those of A/H1N1.

In other words: the CDC isn't releasing confirmed/probably case counts anymore now that the flu has firmly established itself in nearly every county in every state.Therefore, this market was settled correctly: on the final case count as released by the CDC this past Friday.

Hope that helps...

It's an unfair settlement

In any other sphere of betting, this would be a cancelled bet. The question was, "How many confirmed and probable cases of Swine Flu will be reported by August in the US? " The question we bet on isn't 'How many confirmed and probable cases of Swine Flu will be reported by the CDC by August in the US?'
You stated that the CDC would be used as the settlement source. If the CDC figures don't provide an answer to this bet's question, then another source must be used or if no agreement can be reached on another source then the bet should be cancelled.

bigken1 # 16
have you heard anything back yet about your ' problem with the settlement'?