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Will Iran test a nuclear weapon prior to 2011?

Background:

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
46%
No
54%
Question suspends in 1 year

Suspend date: Fri 31st Dec 2010 11:59pm PST (1 year to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 45%

Action history:

Created Sun 14th Jun 7:50am PST by ryanj

Suspend date: Fri 31st Dec 2010 11:59pm PST (1 year to go) details

 

Predictions (52)

3 days ago
johndulong predicted Yes (H$20 at 46%)
1 week ago
vonwalther predicted No (H$200 at 54%)
3 weeks ago
jc4573 predicted Yes (H$50 at 47%)
3 weeks ago
bookie predicted No (H$250 at 53%)
3 weeks ago
cluster0ne predicted No (H$20 at 53%)

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