kruijs![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
How much will be the fine for smuggling US Treasuries towards Switzerland?
We've been unable to find any news of any fine.
Background:
It yet to be seen whether this is the biggest smuggling scandal in history -- or a massive fraud. Italian officials said they were still checking the authenticity of the bonds.
But should the bonds, or at least some of them, turn out to be real, the men will face a significant penalty. In Europe it is illegal to transport more than €10,000 across borders without notifying customs.
Meanwhile, if they turn out to be authentic, Italy is set for a windfall. According to Italian law, the state could fine the men 40 percent of the seized money. Italy's mountain of public debt, which is at 105 percent of GDP, could shrink.
So: What will be the fine for transporting the bonds without notifying customs?
Caution: This is directly dependent on the amount of the bonds authenticated.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=afJXAA1ahZyo
http://www.spiegel.de/international/zeitgeist/0,1518,630158,00.html
Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. If no fine is reported by suspension, "Nothing at all" must be assumed.
| Nothing at all |
| |||
| anything less than 1 million EUR |
| |||
| 1 million to less than 5 billion EUR |
| |||
| 5 to less than 20 billion EUR |
| |||
| 20 to less than 35 billion EUR |
| |||
| 35 billion EUR or more |
|
- Activity: H$62,073 |
- Predictions: 166 |
Comments: 7
Suspend date: Sat 31st Oct 3:59pm PST
Settlement date: Mon 2nd Nov 3:34am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 31st Oct 3:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Nothing at all: 5%, anything less than 1 million EUR: 65%, 1 million to less than 5 billion EUR: 18%, 5 to less than 20 billion EUR: 8%, 20 to less than 35 billion EUR: 3%, 35 billion EUR or more: 1%
Action history:
nyharel
: No news of any fine, as far as I can tell. 
sqlman![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: We've been unable to find any news of any fine. 
Suspend date: Sat 31st Oct 3:59pm PST
Settlement date: Mon 2nd Nov 3:34am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 31st Oct 3:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details 
Get widget!Predictions (166)
foosboy
predicted anything less than 1 million EUR (H$20 at 4%)
predicted Nothing at all (H$50 at 94%)Comments (7)
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The bonds, with a face value of more than $134 billion, are probably forgeries, Colonel Rodolfo Mecarelli of the Guardia di Finanza in Como, Italy, said today. If the notes are genuine, the pair would be the U.S. government’s fourth-biggest creditor, ahead of the U.K. with $128 billion of U.S. debt and just behind Russia, which is owed $138 billion.
The seized notes include 249 securities with a face value of $500 million each and 10 additional bonds with a value of more than $1 billion, the police force said on its Web site. Such high denominations would not have existed in 1934, the purported issue date of the notes, Mecarelli said. Moreover, the “Kennedy” classification of the bonds doesn’t appear to exist, he said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=afJXAA1ahZyo
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-japanese-bond-smugglers-are-missing-2009-6
(I don't know what I should be thinking about this article...)
"Based on the photograph we've seen online, they are clearly fake. And not even good fakes," said Stephen Meyerhardt, a spokesman for the Treasury's Bureau of the Public Debt.
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN1944623120090619
I'm I correct in understanding that if these guys will be charged with anything else (counterfeting, fraud, illegal parking, or whatever), this will not count as a *fine* for this question?
The reason I'm understanding the question this way is that the question explicitly says "So: What will be the fine for transporting the bonds without notifying customs?"
So if these guys get fined for something else (conterfeting, parking, or whatever) it will not be a fine for "transporting the bonds without notifying customs".
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