Created Tue 16th Jun 5:41am PST by

How will the Iranian electoral recount go?

Settled as Ahmadinejad has 60%-70% of Recount

The completed partial recount has affirmed and validated the original contest, which Ahmadinejad took with a 'surprising' landslide of 62%.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/06/30/iran.election/ et al.

Background:

Background: With the protests and street violence encompassing Iran the government has elected to recount last weeks election in a attempt to appease protesters.

Ahmadinejad won 62.6% of the vote, against 33.7% for his chief rival, Mir Hossein Mousavi, therefore for this market we're trying to predict what the new recount totals will be. If in the recount has Ahmadinejad above 70% of the vote the market shall be voided. Electoral percents therefore for example 55.5% would count as 56%, and 55.4% count as 55%.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

Ahmadinejad has 60%-70% of Recount

60%

Ahmadinejad has 55%-59% of Recount

26%

Ahmadinejad has 50%-54% of Recount

Ahmadinejad has less than 50% of Recount

No Recount

Settled as Ahmadinejad has 60%-70% of Recount on Wed 1st Jul 5:57pm PST

Activity: H$95,629
Predictions: 150
Comments: 6

Suspend date: Tue 30th Jun 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Wed 1st Jul 5:57pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 30th Jun 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Ahmadinejad has 60%-70% of Recount: 25%, Ahmadinejad has 55%-59% of Recount: 25%, Ahmadinejad has 50%-54% of Recount: 25%, Ahmadinejad has less than 50% of Recount: 10%, No Recount: 15%

Action history:

Created Tue 16th Jun 5:41am PST by

ryanj

Changed Description Tue 16th Jun 5:59am PST by

ryanj

: show details

... a attempt to appease protesters~~. <~~.<br/> <br/> Ahmadinejad won 62. ... new recount totals will be. If in the recount has Ahmadinejad above 70% of the vote the market shall be voided. Electoral percents therefore for example 55.5% would count as 56%, and 55.4% count as 55%.

Suspended Mon 29th Jun 10:03am PST by

sqlman [Admin]

: Checking settlement details

Settled as 'Ahmadinejad has 60%-70% of Recount' Wed 1st Jul 5:57pm PST by

sqlman [Admin]

: The completed partial recount has affirmed and validated the original contest, which Ahmadinejad took with a 'surprising' landslide of 62%.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/06/30/iran.election/ et al.

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Predictions (150)

20 weeks ago

nzlghost Level 4, Whiz-kid (H$1,248)

predicted No Recount (H$20 at 70%)

20 weeks ago

thisismyrobot Level 10, Genius (H$12,183)

predicted Ahmadinejad has 60%-70% of Recount (H$80 at 19%)

20 weeks ago

kruijs [Power User]

predicted Ahmadinejad has 60%-70% of Recount (H$100 at 7%)

21 weeks ago

nyharel Level 13, Psychic (H$96,596)

predicted No Recount (H$500 at 90%)

21 weeks ago

jamest Level 15, Seer (H$345,077)

predicted No Recount (H$3,000 at 85%)

Comments (6)

nyharel Level 13, Psychic (H$96,596)

According to sources like (a random example) http://in.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idINIndia-40658820090629
a *partial* recount has started.
I would argue that this is not a "recount" as the question defines, because it appears to me that all the discussion of percentages assumes that a "recount" is actually a "full recount"... So if a "partial recount" is all that happens, do we go with "no recount"? Or will this question be voided?

posted 20 weeks ago

kruijs [Power User]

even a partial recount is a recount, with a specific result. that result can still be used to settle this question.

posted 20 weeks ago

nyharel Level 13, Psychic (H$96,596)

But isn't it kind of silly to compare the results of a partial (re)count to the (supposed) results of the entire count? If they only count 10% of the votes, they should compare the new count to the old count of the 10%, not to the old count of everything.... :(

posted 20 weeks ago

kruijs [Power User]

statistically spoken, if they would choose to recount perfect random sample, they could make a quite good interpolation towards the results of the complete group.

but IMO: the result of the recount wouldn't be different anyway - regardless whether or not the complete set of votes is recounted.

posted 20 weeks ago

spyder Level 15, Seer (H$448,683)

The recount is on.
"Iran begins partial recount" http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2009/06/29/iran-election-recount473.html
If the recount shows no fraud/irregularities, of that the original counts were correct, then the result of the recount is the same as the orginal result of the election (62% in favour of Ahmedinejad). Question should settle as "Ahmadinejad has 60%-70% of Recount".

posted 20 weeks ago

spyder Level 15, Seer (H$448,683)

The recount is really a recount of a randomly selected 10% of the ballots from the original election. It would be impossible/impractical to recount every single ballot cast in the original election. Thus, the original question would have necessarily referred to a "partial" recount as opposed to a "complete" recount which could never happen. If they were recounting 90% of the ballots, you'd still have to call that a partial recount, but then there would not be anyone calling for this question to be voided.

posted 20 weeks ago