Created Thu 18th Jun 8:37am PST by

candelario Level 9, Expert (H$9,904)

On what date will North Korea fire a missile toward Hawaii?

Settled as After July 15 or not at all

It hasn't happened yet. Due to lack of author clarification, I've cancelled and refunded all open wagers that were placed on anything but the final option, but will pay out those who did have money on the final (and correct) option, as it wouldn't be fair to penalize them.

Background:

Background: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090618/ap_on_re_as/as_koreas_nuclear

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

On or before July 3

July 4

July 5

July 6

July 7

July 8

July 9 - July 15

After July 15 or not at all

89%

Settled as After July 15 or not at all on Sun 19th Jul 1:46pm PST

Activity: H$13,501
Predictions: 32
Comments: 11

Suspend date: Thu 30th Jul 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sun 19th Jul 1:46pm PST

Initial likelihoods: On or before July 3: 20%, July 4: 10%, July 5: 10%, July 6: 10%, July 7: 10%, July 8: 10%, July 9 - July 15: 10%, After July 15 or not at all: 20%

Action history:

Created Thu 18th Jun 8:37am PST by

candelario Level 9, Expert (H$9,904)

Suspended Thu 18th Jun 3:39pm PST by

sqlman [Admin]

: Awaiting clarification from the author

Settlement requested Thu 2nd Jul 3:02pm PST by

paddy112: Can this be settled

Settled as 'After July 15 or not at all' Sun 19th Jul 1:46pm PST by

sqlman [Admin]

: It hasn't happened yet. Due to lack of author clarification, I've cancelled and refunded all open wagers that were placed on anything but the final option, but will pay out those who did have money on the final (and correct) option, as it wouldn't be fair to penalize them.

hide

Suspend date: Thu 30th Jul 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sun 19th Jul 1:46pm PST details

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Predictions (32)

22 weeks ago

mork

predicted July 9 - July 15 (H$20 at 1%)

22 weeks ago

yurdinde Level 2, Novice (H$1,096)

predicted On or before July 3 (H$1 at 8%)

22 weeks ago

yurdinde Level 2, Novice (H$1,096)

predicted July 8 (H$1 at 3%)

22 weeks ago

yurdinde Level 2, Novice (H$1,096)

predicted July 9 - July 15 (H$1 at 1%)

22 weeks ago

san99

predicted After July 15 or not at all (H$5 at 83%)

Comments (11)

frogchop Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,693,010)

Scary stuff.

posted 22 weeks ago

lola

We may need some clarification on which time zone settles this market because the international date line lies between North Korea and Hawaii. As transpacific air travel teaches, North Korea could launch a missile on July 5th and have it land near Hawaii on July 4th (with no time machine required).

posted 22 weeks ago

frogchop Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,693,010)

Excellent point. I'd guess the default is the general rule of Pacific Time.

posted 22 weeks ago

paddy112

The picture is so innocent, deep down I think we all wish we could be friends with kim jong and make the world a peaceful place.

posted 22 weeks ago

paddy112

Author can you clarify?

posted 22 weeks ago

paddy112

Author?

posted 21 weeks ago

paddy112

AAAAAAAAAAAAUUUUUUUUUUUUUTTTTTTTTHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHOOOOOOORRRRR PPPPPLLLEEEEEAAAAASSSSSSEEEE CCCLLLLLLLLLLLLAAAAAAAAAARRRRRIIIFFFFFYYYY LLLOOOLLLLLLL....

posted 20 weeks ago

dieseldog Level 16, Oracle (H$601,099)

paddy - i'm gonna take a wild guess that you would like the author to clarify the question. :O)

posted 20 weeks ago

paddy112

I was on the beer that night sorry, yes it would be nice have a few quid tied up in the question. (",)

posted 20 weeks ago

dieseldog Level 16, Oracle (H$601,099)

HEY C2R HELP OUT A FELLOW MEMBER. CAN YOU CONTACT CANDLERIO? I DON'T THINK PADDY IS A RIGHTWINGER. HAVEN'T SEEN HIM EXPRESS ANY POLTICAL VIEWS.

posted 20 weeks ago

sqlman [Admin]

Due to lack of response and clarification from Candelario, we'll settle this on the final option (After 7/15 or not at all), but first we'll cancel all the still-open wagers placed on options other than the final one. Fair enough?

posted 18 weeks ago