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Will the US military fire upon and destroy a North Korean missile before July 6, 2009?

Settled as No

Didn't happen...

Background:

Background: (Bloomberg) -- Defense Secretary Robert Gates said he has ordered the U.S. military to take defensive measures should North Korea attempt to fire a ballistic missile toward Hawaii. “I think we are in a good position, should it become necessary, to protect American territory,” Gates told reporters at the Pentagon today.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
2%
No
98%
Settled as No on Tue 7th Jul 4:04am PST

Suspend date: Fri 3rd Jul 11pm PST
Settlement date: Tue 7th Jul 4:04am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 3rd Jul 11pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Thu 18th Jun 12:41pm PST by lola
Suspended Fri 3rd Jul 11pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Mon 6th Jul 8:34am PST by lola: It appears that there were no ballistic fireworks this year -- so this market should settle as NO.
Settled as 'No' Tue 7th Jul 4:04am PST by sqlman[Admin]: Didn't happen...

Suspend date: Fri 3rd Jul 11pm PST
Settlement date: Tue 7th Jul 4:04am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 3rd Jul 11pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (80)

20 weeks ago
undercontrol predicted Yes (H$1 at 2%)
20 weeks ago
vonwalther predicted No (H$100 at 98%)
20 weeks ago
kennyk predicted No (H$100 at 98%)
20 weeks ago
lola predicted Yes (H$250 at 1%)
20 weeks ago
jongskii predicted No (H$100 at 99%)

Comments (19)

The missile launch could come between July 4 and 8, given the North's propensity to launch on U.S. holidays. July 8 is also the anniversary of former leader's Kim Il Sung's death.

While the newspaper speculated the Taepodong-2 could fly over Japan and toward Hawaii, it said the missile would not be able to hit Hawaii's main islands, which are about 4,500 miles from the Korean peninsula.
posted 22 weeks ago
  2 randburg
Frightening possibility...all too possible...
posted 22 weeks ago
  3 randburg
However, firing at a missile could touch off a war...OR -- also possible -- NOT firing a missile could touch off a war.
posted 22 weeks ago
  4 Erik
Obama is too weak
posted 22 weeks ago
  5 sqlman[Admin]
'Obama is too weak". To bench press 750 lbs, yes. But he's not too weak to take on the half-crazed schoolyard bully that is North Korea...although he'll certainly do it with more thoughtfulness and care than the world's previous bully--George "Dubya" Bush--did when manufacturing his constantly shifting and growing reasons to invade Iraq. This is scary stuff; these are scary times. The world has neither the time nor the patience for nations that run around gunslinger-like, half-cocked in defiance of every bit of logic and reason.

North Korea was allowed to amass its small nuclear stockpile under Dubya's watch; one supposes George was too busy flying onto carrier flight decks in full Top Gun-wannabe regalia to have noticed such an insignificant thing. I'll tell you this much: if North Korea had substantial oil reserves, BushCo would have been setting up base in downtown Pyongyang sometime in 2003. No oil = no Dubya. Good for North Korea, but bad for the rest of us. Just another global mess started and/or made worse by Bush.
posted 22 weeks ago
  6 lola
It's ironic that a double-dip recession makes a W curve. :-)
posted 22 weeks ago
  7 Erik
I find it ironic that Obama is having McCain protect us...

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090619-709458.html
posted 22 weeks ago
  8 Erik
sql>
Guidance concerning how my Republic should be governed carries little weight, in my eyes, coming from a resident of a socialist state.

The President of the United States of America should always have the best interests of the United States of America forefront in his thoughts and deeds.

If “bullying” is called for, so be it.

Sorry, I am not a “citizen of the world.”

I am a citizen of the United States of America and I expect my elected officials to act the part of the same.
posted 22 weeks ago
  9 Erik
I should edit that last line;

By the grace of God, I am a citizen of the United States of America and I demand that my elected officials act the part of the same.
posted 22 weeks ago
  10 sqlman[Admin]
That attitude sounds good on the face of it, but, frankly, it went out with button shoes. The world is different now than it was back in the days of George Washington; it no longer takes weeks to mount an attack on a neighboring country via warship, as an ICBM can be flung anywhere in less than half an hour. Weapons and troops travel fast, and news travel even faster; as the world continues to shrink, leaders have to be more patient, more tolerant, more understanding, and more careful. The Wild West days are over; it's time for a thoughtful, cautious hand on the till. Thank God that's what we've got now.

P.S.--the "Obama is a Socialist" jibes and jabs from the radical right aren't working; intelligent folks know there's a vast difference between a socialist and a progressive, so no amount of smearing will work. The only folks buying it are those who would never vote for Obama or any Democrat in the first place. But keep trying; it's fun to watch. :)
posted 22 weeks ago
Yeah, Obama is too weak. Look at how he is just sitting around and watching people dying in Iran, and once in a while he ventures to make some timid pronouncement:

* “You know, I take a wait and see approach…"
* that Iran's government should "recognize that the world is watching."
* that "how they approach and deal with people who are, through peaceful means, trying to be heard" will signal "what Iran is and is not."
*"it's not productive, given the history of US-Iranian relations, to be seen as meddling."

Notice that he is not, however, afraid to "meddle" in the issues facing Israel right now, or tell the EU that they should accept Turkey as a member, or to try to control the World Bank/International Monetary Fund...
posted 22 weeks ago
  12 dieseldog
North Korea was allowed to amass its small nuclear stockpile under Dubya's watch; - they also did so doing the clinton years, and will continue to doing the obama years. they supposely stopped briefly doing the clinton & bush years. now if NK had basketball court obama would have been setting up base in downtown Pyongyang sometime in 2009. :O)
posted 22 weeks ago
  13 curios
I notice the wording of sqlman in the ps quote the radical right.
erik a good areon first name erik remember that radical fight is fasism .
heil!!!!!
posted 22 weeks ago
  14 Erik
*chuckles*
sql> Where I stated, "...a resident of a socialist state" I was not referring to Obama. He is a resident of the United States of America. Although some debate his citizenship...
posted 22 weeks ago
  15 sqlman[Admin]
"...some debate his citizenship... " Yes, and some debate the roundness of the Earth, too, or the fact that America landed men on the moon in 1969; I put them in pretty much the same intellectual box. :-)
posted 21 weeks ago
  16 Erik
sql> My point being:
I made no mention of any "Obama is a Socialist" jibes and jabs you refer to.

You're starting to rant, once again.

Perhaps the attitude that you attribute to me went out with button shoes in your homeland.
Perhaps the lack of that sort of attitude helped form the foundation of your socialist state.
Me? I'll keep the button shoes.
posted 21 weeks ago
  17 sqlman[Admin]
So my reasoned (though often impassioned) responses are a "rant"? And that makes yours...? :-)

You never made it clear that your "socialist state" comment referred to anyone but some other American. In fact, the context in which you used it--followed as it was by a sentence about the POTUS--seems to bolster that. Now, if you were not speaking of Obama being a "socialist"--a label the GOP has been running in circles lately trying to pin on the man and his plans, though it's not sticking--I apologize.

Onward, upward, and all that...
posted 21 weeks ago
Hey - both of you knock it off and save it for the North Koreans...
posted 21 weeks ago
  19 lola
U.S. 'ready' for N. Korean missile

COLORADO SPRINGS | U.S. missile defenses are prepared to try to knock down the last stage of a Taepodong-2 missile that North Korea is expected soon to launch if sensors detect the weapon threatens U.S. territory, the commander of the U.S. Northern Command told The Washington Times. "The nation has a very, very credible ballistic-missile defense capability. Our ground-based interceptors in Alaska and California, I'm very comfortable, give me a capability that if we really are threatened by a long-range ICBM that I've got high confidence that I could interdict that flight before it caused huge damage to any U.S. territory," said Air Force Gen. Victor E. "Gene" Renuart, Northcom commander.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/jul/02/us-ready-for-n-korean-missile/
posted 20 weeks ago

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