Created Sat 20th Jun 5:18am PST by

What will be the Consumer Price Index change (Seasonally adjusted) in the USA for June, 2009?

Settled as +0.51 to +1.0

"On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U increased 0.7 percent in
June after rising 0.1 percent in May."

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.toc.htm

Background:

Background: The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U increased 0.1 percent in May after being unchanged in April. The index for energy, which had declined the previous two months, rose 0.2 percent in May as an increase in the gasoline index more than offset declines in other energy indexes.The food index decreased for the fourth consecutive month, falling 0.2 percent as the indexes for all major grocery store food groups declined.
In 2008, the Consumer Price Index ranged from + 0.9 in June to -1.7 in November. Much of this movement is, of course, tied to the economy as a whole and to the price of oil, since energy costs impact on the cost of everything. So far this year, the numbers (seasonally adjusted) were as follows:
January: +0.3
February: +0.4
March: -0.1
April: 0.0 (unchanged)
May: +0.1
How will the index change in June, 2009 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics? Preliminary, seasonally adjusted numbers as first reported will be used for settlement. Data are usually released by the middle of the following month.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. The official primary source is the Bureau of Labor Statistics @ http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.toc.htm

Forecast history %

-1.0 or below

-0.99 to -0.50

-0.49 to unchanged

32%

+0.01 to + 0.5

48%

+0.51 to +1.0

+ 1.01 or above

Settled as +0.51 to +1.0 on Sat 18th Jul 3:26am PST

Activity: H$5,415
Predictions: 28
Comments: 0

Suspend date: Fri 10th Jul 7:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sat 18th Jul 3:26am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 10th Jul 7:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: -1.0 or below: 10%, -0.99 to -0.50: 15%, -0.49 to unchanged: 25%, +0.01 to + 0.5: 25%, +0.51 to +1.0: 15%, + 1.01 or above: 10%

Action history:

Created Sat 20th Jun 5:18am PST by

tuff_sledding [Power User]

Settlement requested Wed 15th Jul 9:20am PST by

tuff_sledding [Power User]

: The CPI rose by 0.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis.
The winner is +0.51 to +1.0
Most of us blew this one...
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
thanks

Settled as '+0.51 to +1.0' Sat 18th Jul 3:26am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: "On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U increased 0.7 percent in
June after rising 0.1 percent in May."

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.toc.htm

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