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What will be determined to be the primary cause of DC train crash?

Background: On June 22, 2009, two trains collided near the border between Maryland and Washington, DC. At question creation time, four deaths were confirmed and about 60 people had been rescued. Initial reports revealed that one train landed on top of the other.

DC fire spokesman Alan Etter described the crash as a "mass casualty event." Metro general manager John Catoe said that it is too early to determine the cause of the crash.

Additional information:
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,528203,00.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Washington_Metro_subway_crash
Clarification: As per some media reports a signaling error would be considered a failure in the signaling system. Although the term signal may make some think of red and green lights, that is not the main meaning of signal error. The main meaning for this term is failure in the signaling system which routs and detects trains on the tracks etc...

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
train operator error
2%
signal error
79%
train mechanical error
10%
other cause
9%
Question suspends in 1 year
 

Predictions (196)

6 weeks ago
bigken1 predicted signal error (H$5,555 at 65%)
6 weeks ago
bigken1 predicted signal error (H$900 at 37%)
6 weeks ago
bigken1 predicted signal error (H$20 at 68%)
12 weeks ago
bigken1 predicted signal error (H$3,000 at 74%)
12 weeks ago
bigken1 predicted signal error (H$2,000 at 57%)

Comments (22)

Was the operator texting or just talking on a cell phone?
posted 19 weeks ago
She'll never tell, because, unfortunately, she is one of the dead....
posted 19 weeks ago
Is it my imagination or if there is some kind of land/sea/air accident 'onedave' is there with a hubdub question?
posted 19 weeks ago
  4 frogchop
He probably works for the NTSB and he uses Hubdub to write his reports. ;-)
posted 19 weeks ago
  6 bigken1
They can find out if she was texting or talking on a cell phone, because they are getting the cell records...
posted 19 weeks ago
  7 tisha[Admin]
I think there's a fairly strong duty of care argument to have all professional public transport drivers turn in their phones when they start their shift.
posted 19 weeks ago
I'm hearing strong opinions of some type of computer error. The trains at rush hour in DC operate on something similar to an aircraft's auto-pilot. If it fails, bad things happen.
posted 19 weeks ago
  9 onedave[Power User]
@XC: So, for which accidents did I create Hubdub questions?
posted 19 weeks ago
  10 bob71
the operator hit the e break
posted 19 weeks ago
  11 buckeyetom
The emergency brake was activated because the computer system failed. The system was intended to keep the trains 1,200 feet apart at all times. It's apparent that she hit the brake when the trains got too close to each other. Now what comes into play is whether or not she was being distracted and didn't look up in time to see the other train. Was she texting? Talking on the phone? Only time will tell. I understand the NTSB is reviewing her cell phone records. This could come down to a duel settlement of Train Operator Error and Other Cause.
posted 19 weeks ago
  12 firechild
I assumed "signal error" to be referring to an error in the signaling computer system that caused the train wreck in June 2005. Is that correct?

"The 33-year-old Metrorail system was designed with a fail-safe computerized signal program that is supposed to prevent trains from colliding. The agency's trains are run by onboard computers that control speed and braking."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/23/AR2009062301698.html?hpid=topnews
posted 19 weeks ago
  13 nocheesie
what if there's more than one error? i mean there's usually multiple backup things to prevent accident from happening, so it's likely that a few failed that caused the accident. what would that settle as?
posted 19 weeks ago
  14 jeopardy
I assume that this would be "signal error"?

Crash Investigators Find Faulty Track Circuitry

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/25/us/25crash.html
posted 19 weeks ago
  15 buckeyetom
Faulty track circuitry sounds more like Other Cause. Signal error sounds like a Red light/Green light situation.
posted 19 weeks ago
  16 bigken1
It depends on what the circuitry deals with, and how it is ruled....If it affects the signals
(Like electronic transmission of trains ahead, it might be considered "signal error" -- there are electronic signals now, not just old early 20th century lights)
posted 19 weeks ago
  17 sqlman[Admin]
My own $0.02: even some news outlets are referring to the problem as "signaling error". For instance: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31550288/ns/us_news-life/.

Hmmmm...
posted 19 weeks ago
  18 bigken1
Maybe HD staff can define question / answers better as to whether "signaling error", (part of the electronic control sent from the signals to the train) is a signal error, or other..
posted 19 weeks ago
  19 ryanj
Hi all,

As per some media reports a signaling error would be considered a failure in the signaling system. Although the term signal may make some think of red and green lights, that is not the main meaning of signal error. The main meaning for this term is failure in the signaling system which routs and detects trains on the tracks etc...

Above added to market as clarification.

Regards,
Ryan
posted 18 weeks ago
  20 firechild
"D.C. train control system fails in test"

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-train26-2009jun26,0,4470392.story
posted 18 weeks ago
  21 firechild
"Investigators Say D.C. Train System Had Chronic Signal Problems"
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124837027004476385.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
posted 15 weeks ago

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