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Created Mon 22nd Jun 6:18pm PST by measure

NASCAR: Race for the Chase: How many drivers will fall out of the top 12 in points?

Suspended

Suspend date reached

Background:

Background: The "Race for the chase" begins on June 28th. This series of ten races leads up to the nascar "Chase" playoffs, where the top 12 drivers are locked into those spots for the remainder of the season.

During the ten race "Race for the Chase", how many drivers will fall out of the top 12?

Current standings at start of "Race to the Chase":
Place/Driver/Points/Ahead of 13th
1-Tony Stewart......2364 pts (+450)
2-Jeff Gordon.........2280 pts (+366)
3-Jimmy Johnson...2207 pts (+293)
4-Kurt Busch.........2084 pts (+170)
5-Carl Edwards......2051 pts (+137)
6-Ryan Newman....2046 pts (+132)
7-Denny Hamlin.....2009 pts (+95)
8-Greg Bifle...........1992 pts (+78)
9-Kyle Busch........1962 pts (+48)
10-Matt Kenseth....1957 pts (+43)
11-Mark Martin......1926 pts (+12)
12-Juan Montoya...1917 pts (+3)

I'd say everyone from Kurt Busch on down is vulnerable, and From Denny Hamlin down are in the danger zone. But that's just me. What do you all think?

Settlement details:As reported by nascar.com

 
Forecast history %
Zero
5%
One
67%
Two
19%
Three
7%
Four
2%
Five or More
1%
Predictions on this question are temporarily suspended

Suspend date: Fri 11th Sep 3:59pm PST

Initial likelihoods: Zero: 15%, One: 30%, Two: 30%, Three: 14%, Four: 9%, Five or More: 2%

Action history:

Created Mon 22nd Jun 6:18pm PST by measure
Suspended Fri 11th Sep 3:59pm PST : Suspend date reached

Suspend date: Fri 11th Sep 3:59pm PST details

 

Predictions (14)

8 weeks ago
donnamil predicted One (H$3,000 at 46%)
12 weeks ago
nviperdude predicted Zero (H$50 at 7%)
15 weeks ago
n1kkc predicted Two (H$500 at 39%)
15 weeks ago
n1kkc predicted Three (H$500 at 16%)
16 weeks ago
philphan1 predicted Two (H$20 at 39%)

Comments (4)

  1 measure
One race in, we have no change. Interesting to see how this pans out.
posted 18 weeks ago
  2 measure
After two races, one driver from the original list has fallen out, Mark Martin.
posted 17 weeks ago
  3 measure
After three races, we appear to be back where we started, with the top 12 drivers exactly the same as at the start of the chase.
posted 16 weeks ago
  4 measure
Strike that. Martin is back in, but Biffle is out. Kahne replaced Martin last week, and Martin replaced Biffle this week. So we're at one.
posted 16 weeks ago

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