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Where will the Kang Nam be inspected?

Settled as No inspection within one week of docking

Since the Kang Nam returned under its own power to North Korea without either docking anywhere or being inspected, there grew a bit of confusion here. After discussing the issue with various other category editors and superusers, we've decided to double-settle this on both of the final two options. Option #4 (No inspection) because, among other things, it wasn't made clear whether 'docking' would refer to only landing in one of the countries listed, and option #5 (other outcome) because the ship's return to North Korea wasn't anticipated at all.

We apologize for the delay while we sorted things out, and we appreciate your patience.

Background:

Background: The North Korean ship Kang Nam is believed to be carrying arms. Its final destination is apparently Thilawa, Burma. Some reports say that it will stop to refuel in Singapore or Thailand.

Under recent UN Security Council resolutions, North Korea is banned from exporting arms. Any vessel suspected of breaking the ban must be inspected. Singapore has stated that it would "act appropriately" if the ship docked there.

The ship is being tracked by a US destroyer.

Additional information:
http://www.thepeninsulaqatar.com/Display_news.asp?section=World_News&subsection=Rest+of+the+World&month=June2009&file=World_News2009062423834.xml
http://www.csmonitor.com/2009/0623/p06s10-woap.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kang_Nam

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. Settlement date will be adjusted if there is no additional news.

 
Forecast history %
the high seas
8%
Singapore
10%
Burma
10%
No inspection within one week of docking
61%
Other outcome
10%
Settled as No inspection within one week of docking on Sat 25th Jul 2009 3:25am PST

Suspend date: Tue 7th Jul 2009 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sat 25th Jul 2009 3:25am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 7th Jul 2009 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: the high seas: 10%, Singapore: 25%, Burma: 10%, No inspection within one week of docking: 50%, Other outcome: 5%

Action history:

Created Tue 23rd Jun 2009 5:15pm PST by onedave[Power User]
Settlement requested Tue 30th Jun 2009 6:14pm PST by Erik: Source: NKorean ship headed back to north

By PAULINE JELINEK - 1 hour ago

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. officials said Tuesday that a North Korean ship has turned around and is headed back toward the north where it came from, after being tracked for more than a week by American Navy vessels on suspicion of carrying illegal weapons.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gPE2T6srY36AqSumfp9KStLWUnAQD995BFLG0
Changed Suspend date Tue 30th Jun 2009 7:26pm PST by sqlman[Admin]: was: "2009-06-30 23:59:00"
Suspended Tue 7th Jul 2009 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Suspended Tue 7th Jul 2009 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Thu 9th Jul 2009 2:09am PST by onedave[Power User]: The Kang Nam has returned to North Korea. Do you think that is enough to settle as the "not inspected after 7 days" option.
http://www.csmonitor.com/2009/0707/p02s04-usfp.html
Settlement requested Sun 19th Jul 2009 9:10am PST by Erik: please settle
Settlement requested Tue 21st Jul 2009 8:40am PST by Erik: What are we waiting to hear???

Please settle.
Settlement requested Fri 24th Jul 2009 8:13am PST by Erik: This market has been suspended for over 2 weeks.

Please settle or re-open.
Settled as 'Other outcome' Sat 25th Jul 2009 3:23am PST by sqlman[Admin]: Since the Kang Nam returned under its own power to North Korea without either docking anywhere or being inspected, there grew a bit of confusion here. After discussing the issue with various other category editors and superusers, we've decided to double-settle this on both of the final two options. Option #4 (No inspection) because, among other things, it wasn't made clear whether 'docking' would refer to only landing in one of the countries listed, and option #5 (other outcome) because the ship's return to North Korea wasn't anticipated at all.

We apologize for the delay while we sorted things out, and we appreciate your patience.
Previous action withdrawn Sat 25th Jul 2009 3:24am PST by sqlman[Admin]: Unsettle to double settle...
Settled as 'No inspection within one week of docking' Sat 25th Jul 2009 3:25am PST by sqlman[Admin]: Since the Kang Nam returned under its own power to North Korea without either docking anywhere or being inspected, there grew a bit of confusion here. After discussing the issue with various other category editors and superusers, we've decided to double-settle this on both of the final two options. Option #4 (No inspection) because, among other things, it wasn't made clear whether 'docking' would refer to only landing in one of the countries listed, and option #5 (other outcome) because the ship's return to North Korea wasn't anticipated at all.

We apologize for the delay while we sorted things out, and we appreciate your patience.

Suspend date: Tue 7th Jul 2009 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sat 25th Jul 2009 3:25am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 7th Jul 2009 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (41)

36 weeks ago
undercontrol predicted the high seas (H$1 at 8%)
36 weeks ago
undercontrol predicted Singapore (H$1 at 10%)
36 weeks ago
undercontrol predicted Burma (H$2 at 10%)
36 weeks ago
undercontrol predicted No inspection within one week of docking (H$10 at 61%)
36 weeks ago
pita_soup predicted No inspection within one week of docking (H$300 at 60%)

Comments (12)

  1 onedave[Power User]
Apparently, the ship has turned around and is off the coast of Vietnam.

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2009/06/30/ap6603723.html

On the other hand, Burma says it will inspect the ship.

http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2009/07/01/2009070100222.html
posted 37 weeks ago
  2 Erik
Source: NKorean ship headed back to north

By PAULINE JELINEK - 1 hour ago

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. officials said Tuesday that a North Korean ship has turned around and is headed back toward the north where it came from, after being tracked for more than a week by American Navy vessels on suspicion of carrying illegal weapons.
posted 37 weeks ago
  3 sqlman[Admin]
By the creator's request, the suspend date has been moved back a week; the ship has turned around, and so will be seaborne a while longer.

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2009/06/30/ap6603723.html
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gPE2T6srY36AqSumfp9KStLWUnAQD995BFLG0
posted 37 weeks ago
  4 Erik
So if it goes back 'home'.....
posted 37 weeks ago
  5 onedave[Power User]
I assume it won't be inspected if it goes back to North Korea. I am not sure if we can settle based on an assumption. We may have to suspend the question for a week to see if North Korea inspects its own ship.
posted 37 weeks ago
  6 onedave[Power User]
'Other outcome' means that another country inspects the ship. Of course, it could also mean that something truly bizarre happens.
posted 37 weeks ago
  7 Erik
If the ship returns home there would be a problem:

No inspection within one week of docking
Other outcome

Both would be correct.
posted 37 weeks ago
  8 Erik
The North Korean Kang Nam 1, which was being tracked by the US Navy under the new measures, was seen on Sunday in international waters off South Korea's west coast, according to Yonhap.

It was heading back to its home port in the Yellow Sea, Yonhap said, and was expected to reach North Korean waters Monday morning.

http://news.sg.msn.com/topstories/article.aspx?cp-documentid=3437756
posted 37 weeks ago
  9 bernardo
"The U.N. resolution 1874, which prohibits North Korea from exporting any weapons, has also proven to be surprisingly effective so far. The Kangnam 1, a North Korean cargo ship suspected of carrying weapons and tracked by the U.S. navy under 1874, was forced to return to North Korea rather than its intended destination, believed to have been Myanmar. " http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/opinon/2009/07/137_48384.html
posted 35 weeks ago
  10 sqlman[Admin]
07/20: I'm waiting to hear back from the market's author; as soon as I do--and I hope that's today--we should be able to settle..
posted 34 weeks ago
  11 Erik
What are we waiting to hear???
posted 34 weeks ago
  12 Erik
This market has been suspended for over 2 weeks.

Please settle or re-open.
posted 34 weeks ago

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