Created Wed 24th Jun 5:17pm PST by 
raresaturn
raresaturn 
What year will the 500th exoplanet be discovered?
Background: As of June 2009, 353 exoplanets (planets orbiting stars other than The Sun) are listed in the Extrasolar Planets Encyclopaedia. What year will the 500th be discovered?
Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Forecast history %
| 2009 |
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| 2010 |
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| 2011 |
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| 2012 |
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| Later than 2012 |
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Question suspends in 3 years
- Activity: H$2,080 |
- Predictions: 6 |
Comments: 1
Suspend date: Tue 1st Jan 2013 3:59pm PST (3 years to go)
Initial likelihoods: 2009: 5%, 2010: 60%, 2011: 20%, 2012: 10%, Later than 2012: 5%
Action history:
Created Wed 24th Jun 5:17pm PST by raresaturn
raresaturn 
Suspend date: Tue 1st Jan 2013 3:59pm PST (3 years to go) details 
Get widget!Predictions (6)
vex_
predicted 2010 (H$200 at 48%)
predicted 2009 (H$40 at 4%)
predicted 2010 (H$250 at 46%)Comments (1)
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