Which party will win the Glasgow North East by-election?

I think the people betting on this market really don't understand just how likely it is that Labour win this by-election. It's far above the 10% figure.

Apparently the guy who thwarted the Glasgow airport bombers is standing for election as an independant

Come on Smeato! Worth a bet - he is a hero in Scotland. Rather him than Esther Rantzon in parliament! Or will the have a go hero lucky streak continue!

Is Smeaton being classified as an independent, or as "any other party" for the Jury Team?

I would guess independant

Smeaton was mobbed on his first day canvassing. People lined up in the street to shake his hand. There's a real possibility that a bandwagon will get running here. He's loved as a genuine working class hero. His skewering on tv by Bernard Ponsonby has led to a "them & us" attitude developing. I think he'll win. I think all the sneering, over-educated political "analysts" just don't get it. They have no idea of the man's grass roots support.

I've put my bet on Smeaton under Independent.

This market's been crazy, Labour sat at ten percent for ages, now they're third behind Smeaton?

Smeaton will win! He's an Independent standing with the support of the Jury Team. Your concerns ARE his policies. The Jury Team ask that any candidate standing with their support abide by he Nolan Principles that ALL prospective parliamentary candidates and politicians should abide by.
They are:
SELFLESSNESS
Holders of public office should act solely in terms of the public interest. They should not do so in order to gain financial or other material benefits for themselves, their family, or their friends.

INTEGRITY
Holders of public office should not place themselves under any financial or other obligation to outside individuals or organisations that might seek to influence them in the performance of their official duties.

OBJECTIVITY
In carrying out public business, including making public appointments, awarding contracts, or recommending individuals for rewards and benefits, holders of public office should make choices on merit.

ACCOUNTABILITY
Holders of public office are accountable for their decisions and actions to the public and must submit themselves to whatever scrutiny is appropriate to their office.

OPENNESS
Holders of public office should be as open as possible about all the decisions and actions that they take. They should give reasons for their decisions and restrict information only when the wider public interest clearly demands.

HONESTY
Holders of public office have a duty to declare any private interests relating to their public duties and to take steps to resolve any conflicts arising in a way that protects the public interest.

LEADERSHIP
Holders of public office should promote and support these principles by leadership and example.

Go Smeato, give 'em a run forfor their money, or should I say ours! I'll be putting money on Smeato.

Gotta be Smeato man.

I think ciraric doesn't know just how bad Labour's candidate is. Nor does ciraric realise the depth of anger at the Speakers extravagances. Most people in this constituency are on benefits. What Martin would spend on one meal would comfortably feed a family here for a week. Willie Bain talks about being tough on crime? Most people round here recognise that politicians are the real criminals.

Come on Smeato.

Gillie, I agree that I don't know the candidate. I agree I don't really come from the East End of Glasgow (I come from South Lanarkshire) and I agree that Smeato is a real pain in my neck.

What I do not agree to is that Labour have a 1 in 30 chance of winning the by-election whereas John Smeaton is practically a dead cert.

I mean... what is wrong with you people? (Should I add an emoticon here to make it seem as if I'm joking or do you guys get the intended lightness of my accusation without such internet niceties?).

The Jury Team are a registered party with the UK electoral commission, therefore are NOT considered independents. They would be classed as "Party not listed"

That's gong to change the betting a bit then.

Either way, im covered. I bet both when they were on 0% :)

Harryhayfield - That would be true. However John Smeaton is not a member of the Jury Team (last time I heard) his campaign is just being run by them. He is an independent.

I think they are just supporting him, meaning he would be an independant candidate, but dont hold me to that. Maybe we could do with some confirmation on this issue?

I think they are just supporting him, meaning he would be an independant candidate, but dont hold me to that. Maybe we could do with some confirmation on this issue?

I do know - or least have been in the same room as - the Lib Dem candidate, about whom I would wish to post defamatory remarks (concerning her apparent planet of residence or state of mental health and acuity) which I have heard echoed by some who know her better - but I don't wish to be sued. I say this although I am generally a supporter of her party (I can't vote here) - but in any case it is most unlikely she will win.

As for Smeaton, I suppose we will need to look at the ballot paper for the official answer - 'Jury Team' is an unusual approach for a 'party', but normally this question (and the Question) would be clear. The Times today refers to him as the Jury Team candidate, but I think that might still have him listed formally as an Independent. It also says the bookies overwhelmingly favor Labour...

For those interested BBC Scotland had a panel discussion today with the candidates - from the main 4 parties, not including Mr. Smeaton. Media bias perhaps, but nonetheless likely to be effective... (look for 'The Politics Show' Oct 11)

@bookie, well yes, the bookies, like myself clearly think how unlikely it is for Labour to lose Glasgow NE.

connoisseurs of political embarassment should look up Eileen Baxendale's hopeless interview with Newsnight Scotland last night - what a ditz that woman is.

Between her, Huhne, and Clegg I am seriously re-evaluating why I tend to support the Lib Dems...

BBC calls Smeato 'independent supported by Jury Team'...

Nominations as listed on Glasgow City Council website:
Charlie Baillie, British National Party
Willie Bain, Scottish Labour Party Candidate
Eileen Baxendale, Scottish Liberal Democrats
Mev Brown, Independent
Colin Campbell, The Individuals Labour and Tory (TILT)
Ruth Davidson, Scottish Conservative and Unionist
David Doherty, Scottish Green Party
Mikey Hughes
David Kerr, Scottish National Party (SNP)
Louise McDaid, Socialist Labour Party
Kevin McVey, Scottish Socialist Party - Make Greed History
Tommy Sheridan, Solidarity - Scotland’s Socialist Movement
John David Smeaton, Jury Team