Created Thu 25th Jun 1:45pm PST by

ginothehood Level 1, Newbie (H$939)

Will the economic green shoots theory be debunked in 2009?

Background: Is the economy starting to improve as claimed by government officials or is it a confidence building trick?

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

Yes

42%

58%

Question suspends in 5 weeks

Activity: H$43,305
Predictions: 18
Comments: 7

Suspend date: Sat 26th Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Thu 25th Jun 1:45pm PST by

ginothehood Level 1, Newbie (H$939)

Settlement requested Wed 5th Aug 7:25am PST by

Erik

: what needs to happen in order for this to be debunked?

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Suspend date: Sat 26th Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go) details

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Predictions (18)

1 day ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

predicted No (H$2,000 at 55%)

2 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

predicted No (H$1,000 at 47%)

2 weeks ago

rogerkni Level 15, Seer (H$433,085)

predicted Yes (H$1,000 at 53%)

3 weeks ago

rogerkni Level 15, Seer (H$433,085)

predicted Yes (H$500 at 51%)

3 weeks ago

rogerkni Level 15, Seer (H$433,085)

predicted Yes (H$500 at 50%)

Comments (7)

robamichael Level 13, Psychic (H$82,550)

what needs to happen in order for this to be debunked?

posted 21 weeks ago

rogerkni Level 15, Seer (H$433,085)

Here's a great visual I hope someone draws: Green toadstools, hideous looking, with the caption, "Green Shoots."

Bull-shoot!
Green? Shoot! (A euphemism)
Green straws (for grasping at)

posted 19 weeks ago

notablenotices [Power User]

GDP In Pictures: The Truth
http://market-ticker.org/archives/1280-GDP-In-Pictures-The-Truth.html

posted 16 weeks ago

robamichael Level 13, Psychic (H$82,550)

excellent link nn

posted 16 weeks ago

ulius

Well surely if the confidence "trick" works the economy will grow anyway. Banks are fairing better international trade is stronger, the Fed has announced the worst of the recession is over.

posted 14 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

Does "improve" include getting less bad, even if growth is not yet positive? What will be the statistic we use to determine if the economy is improving? What specifically will be the criteria for settlement?? Are we waiting to see a headline "green shoots theory debunked"??? We really need something objective to know how to play this.....

posted 7 weeks ago

mungo10 Level 14, Prophet (H$227,674)

Part of rebuilding the economy is a matter of fostering consumers and producers confidence that the economy is improving. Each is more likely to spend money which will stimulate the economy. So "confidence building" (in the literal sense, not the con-artist sense, although it could be seen that way) is part of the process of building up the economy.

posted 5 weeks ago