What was the underlying cause of Michael Jackson's cardiac arrest?

Would a superstar probably have a better chance of knowing if they had a Congenital cardiovascular defect as opposed to the layman?

Wasnt he addicted to the habit forming drug demerol?

What if he had a congenital cardiovascular defect that was worsened by drug use and he had been drinking?

What if he had a congenital cardiovascular defect that was worsened by drug use and he had been drinking but was not determined by the suspend date?

Clarify please - does drug use mean prescription drugs or illegal drugs or either?

If prescription drug use was the underlying cause of his death, then drugs it is.

Autopsy is today, other/not determined isn't looking like a good prediction.

Market will suspend prior to the autopsy results this afternoon, then can reopen if the results aren't sufficiently conclusive.

Jenni is right, my intention was that "drug use" means any drugs - prescription, illegal, whatever. Also, if the autopsy indicates more than one of the listed options was significantly contributory to cardiac arrest, then it should probably settle as "other", although I imagine that if a definite cause is found, there will most likely be one primary cause that will be reported. Those are my thoughts, anyway.

According to Headline News, initial autopsy results are expected today at 4:30pm EST.
However, it was reported that toxicology reports will likely take 6-8 weeks and "the cause of death will be determined when all results come in." hmmmm

Meanwhile, the 911 call was released today; apparently his doctor was at the scene and possibly gave him something just prior to death; and now can't be reached by police? Sounds suspicious to me!

http://www.cnn.com/2009/SHOWBIZ/Music/06/26/michael.jackson/index.html

Perhaps settlement date can or should be extended? (to allow time for toxicology results, etc.)

He was afraid if "dying like Elvis"...yet he may, oddly, have gone out very much the same way: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31570598/ns/entertainment-celebrities/

@raiders - I would like to but I know many people bet based on the "We won't know by X date" so I can't really move that date now that there are bets on the market. I would, however, be completely amenable to you making another similar market with an extended suspend date (one that I can move as the news is released). You could also expand the options a bit as we have so much more information now than we did before.

According to sources, we may know very shortly--within just a day or so--and at most just a few weeks "An autopsy was planned for Friday, though results were not likely to be final until toxicology tests could be completed, a process that could take several days and sometimes weeks. However, if a cause can be determined by the autopsy, they will announce the results, said Los Angeles County Coroner Investigator Jerry McKibben." (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31552029/ns/entertainment-music/)

Toxicology results will take a few days, but should not be too long. It is possible that the official report will waffle and not make a clear call. He was a sick man for some time, the media reports to the contrary notwithstanding. He's been committing slow suicide for years. One might well argue that mental illness was the underlying cause, which led to alcohol and drug abuse and ultimately his death. How will that settle??

tuff,
one could argue that mental illness is the underlying cause of almost every death using similar reasoning... You go out, and get run over... So, you didn't take into account the possibility of getting hit by a car EVERY time you went out... So, that is a mental illness, etc.. I am not against your viewpoint, just trying to suggest it is unconventional, and borders on fantasy -- or mental illness.. Maybe you should get yourself checked in. Right after me. :)

ken, you are crazy! :-)
but seriously, the man was clearly unbalanced and his life had been spiraling downward for years. I know most of the world worshiped him and once upon a time he was a fabulous musician, but that was a long time ago. I don't mean any disrespect to the King of Pop, but the sordid details will eventually begin to emerge. His body and his mind had been in severe decline for years. He had become a sick man and caricature of his former self. I am astonished that everybody claims to have been surprised by this. Anybody close to the situation should have seen this coming. I am not close at all, but I am a physician. I had bet long ago on his London concerts to be canceled....

I know sqlman alluded to the Elvis connection, but I think it is getting even stronger. A faded music star, a mysterious odd life in the shadows of past fame, caretakers of dubious validity, perscription drugs, ... It is this generations Elvis, for sure. And it is sad this is how fame sputters and dies.

hi tuff,

I read more into your statement than was there...I misconstrued by overgeneralizing your statement "One might well argue that mental illness was the underlying cause, which led to alcohol and drug abuse and ultimately his death." taking it to mean MORE THAN MJ's case..

I took it to mean that mental illness is the cause of car accidents, other heart attacks (due to unhealthy life style -- not eating proper diet, not proper exercise, etc. etc. etc.). , as opposed to just MJ's case....

I guess i did that, because I , in part, feel that way.. So, because I actually agree with it, I did want to make clear or assert caution in using this too far....
thx for clarifying...ken

Ken & Tuff, I don't know about you guys, but I'm starting with the man in the mirror...


Sorry, couldn't resist. lol

you're all wrong its painkillers!!!

I agree Joe, the only question is if the offical anouncement will be made before settlement date.

Does this settle the question? http://thesuperficial.com/2009/06/michael_jacksons_cause_of_deat.php ... lol

This one will come down to the wire! http://perezhilton.com/2009-07-14-coming-soon-to-every-available-news-outlet-michael-jackson-toxicology-reports

what if the underlying cause was:
something struck him ie. a crescendo.
or disco fever?

LOL @ 26 :)

It seems the current working diagnosis is overdose of pain meds given by his doc. I take it drugs are drugs, whether self-administered or given by a crooked doctor....

@tuff - Yep, drugs are drugs. The real issue is going to be in the timing and whether they manage to get the toxicology reports released prior to the settlement date of August 1st.

TMZ is reporting that the LAPD is Treating Jackson Death as Homicide. Will this cause the report of his drug use to be delayed and might not be reported before the suspend date.

No matter if they release it by 1 August or not - this is potentially a case of homicide and it's not about John Smith... I would certainly expect that somebody will appeal against the results no matter what they say. A final, law-proof result will take another few weeks at least - that's why I'm going for option 4 "not determined by settlement date".

What? You can't appeal a coronor's report. It's a report. That's all. If it points toward homocide, then someone could be charged by the police department. The police department and the coroner's office are separate entities. If that person is charged, they could argue in court that the evidence was improperly obtained or argue with the findings of the toxicology report, but this market is about the cause of death (drugs, heart defect or other/no news), not about what happens in court.

Here is some news I saw that might help those wagering on this market:
Michael Jackson Toxicology Reports Delayed
17-Jul-2009
Written by: Monica Burton
Coroner's office still waiting on results.
The Los Angeles County Coroner's Office said on Thursday that final autopsy results on Michael Jackson will likely take at least two more weeks.
The coroner's office said it will take them longer than expected to complete toxicology tests after the initial autopsy failed to provide a definitive cause of death.
Officials had previously said that they expected to have toxicology results by later this week or early next week. Results of toxicology tests might be able to provide more detailed information about what might have caused Jackson to go into cardiac arrest.
The coroner did not give a reason for the delay but TMZ reported that unnamed sources blamed the delay on incomplete reports from several outside consultants. Los Angeles law enforcement is preparing for the possibility that Jackson's death could turn into a criminal case, awaiting the results of the coroner's official report.

Man, that's calling it tight! All the better for close wages. :)

@frogchop: Hm, maybe this is about legal terms. Maybe you can't appeal a coroner's report. But you can doubt it. I'm a toxicologist myself and I know that it is not at all easy to spot that one cause that killed someone. If about a billion people around the globe (and it's literally probably a billion) look at the results of your work, you'll be extra cautious.... and have a colleague have a look... and do it all over again... and do some literature research... and ...and ...and... and... there's your extra 2 weeks :-D

@ horatiomonty, a well reasoned reply. I agree, they'll be double checking their dotted i's and crossed t's. That said, the pressure to get the results out there remain. The role of the coroner's office is to determine cause of death, not to say who done it. They also don't want there to be leaks, so that will push them to announce as soon as they're sure of the info. No matter what, this was always going to be a close horse race. The smart money on this market is well hedged money!

Let us assume that he died by a drug... The question still remains, will it be classified by the press as drug use, if the drug was not administered by himself (drug use), or by the Doctor, wherein it might be considered homicide, or manslaughter, or whatever, some kind of crime, which likely it wouldnt have been considered, if MJ was anyone of us. Would this then qualify as "other" or what? Sorry for all the run on statements..

Well, in this case the doctor "used" the drugs to kill him... :-)
Anyway, nothing will happen until Wednesday and then it's "Not determined by suspend date" anyway :-D and I'll be incredibly rich, harharhar!!!

CNN BREAKING NEWS (07/27) "Michael Jackson's personal physician, Dr. Conrad Murray, administered a powerful drug that authorities believe killed the singer, a source close to the Jackson family and with knowledge of the investigation confirmed to CNN on Monday." (http://www.cnn.com/2009/SHOWBIZ/Music/07/27/michael.jackson/index.html)

Wow, you Americans just know how to deliver a really good showdown...

And the last line of that CNN report reads:
"Meanwhile, the Los Angeles County coroner's office continues to investigate the cause of Jackson's death on June 25. It has been waiting on toxicology lab results, but a final autopsy report is expected as soon as this week, a coroner's spokesman has said."

To my experience "this week" means "Friday at the earliest" in Authority speak...